Gums, Resins, 



448 



[Dec, 1906. 



LOOKING AHEAD. 



Take up another position and imagine that in a few years from now the 

 annual consumption of wild rubber will be about 100,000 tons (say equal to 80,000 

 tons of pure rubber). What acreage of rubber plants would be required to secure 

 such an amount ? How much of the required acreage have you already got ? A 

 demand of 100,000 tons of wild rubber per year can be met by the produce from 

 1,600,000 cultivated acres ; already wild sources, calculated on the above basis, supply 

 the equivalent of 960,000 cultivated acres. The Indo-Malayan region alone has 

 alienated 250,000 acres, thus leaving much less than another half million acres to be 

 opened by ourselves and by others — there are others, please remember — in Africa, 

 South America, Central America, West Indies, etc., as a reference to recent con- 

 cessions, each of a thousand of square miles, indicates. 



One may reasonably imagine that others, outside our little eastern circle, 

 have possibly already secured the balance of land to satisfy this demand. I have 

 taken the opportunity to discuss these figures with judges and others at this 

 Exhibition, and now give them perchance they may be of interest. I am by no means 

 wedded to these figures if anyone else can produce a better or more reliable series. 



INTERESTING AND UP-TO-DATE FIGURES. 



Let the consumption for 1905 be 60,000 tons of wild rubber equivalent to 960,000 

 cultivated acres. (60,000 tons wild equaling approximately 48,000 tons plantation). 

 Let the rubber acreage in the Indo-Malayan region for 1906 be 250,000 acres. 



Yield of pure 

 rubber from 

 250,000 acres 



Dis 



ance of trees 

 apart. 



Trees per acre, 

 (approximate) 



20 by 15 ft. 



Yield of rubber 

 per tree, 

 per annum. 



| lb. ' 



I* ;; 



3 „ 



in Ceylon and 



Approximate yield 

 per annum, 

 per acre, 



1 cwt. 



2 „ 

 4 „ 

 5-3 „ 



the Straits 



approximate) 

 12,500 tons 

 25,000 „ 

 50,000 „ 

 66,200 „ 

 gave in 1905 about 



150 

 150 



;; 150 



15 by 15 ft. 200 



198,000 young and old trees 

 240,000 lb. of rubber. 



10,000 trees in Ceylon, average age about 10 years, gave 30,0001b. of rubber in 1905. 



FURTHER INTERESTING AND ORIGINAL FIGURES. 



Let the demand be 65,000 tons of wild rubber in 1906. 



For argument's sake let the demand increase at the rate of 5,000 tons of wild 

 rubber per year ; 5,000 tons of wild rubber equal 4,000 tons of plantation rubber, 

 allowing the difference in impurities to be approximately 20 per cent. 



Let the supply from will sources remain constant at 60,000 tons per year. 

 Then what cultivated acreage will be required, assuming that each tree gives 

 only | lb. of rubber, and each acre has only 150 trees ? 



Balance of 



Wild Sources 



Year. 



Demand for 

 llubber 



Cultivated 

 acreage required 

 to supply 

 "i""—> Balance 



(Approximate,) 

 Tons. Tons. Acres. 



60,000 5,000 80,000 



60,000 10,000 160,000 



60,000 15,000 240,000 



60,000 20,000 320,000 



60,000 25,000 400,000 



60,000 30,000 480,000 



60,000 35,000 560,000 



60,000 40,000 640,000 



60,000 45,000 720,000 



60,000 50,000 800,000 



60,000 55,000 880,000 



60,000 60,000 960,000 



These calculations are based on the minimum yield per acre ; a higher yield 

 from our trees means a reduction in the cultivated acreage required. 



1906 



Tons' 

 65,000 



1907 



70,000 



1908 



75,000 



1909 



80,000 



1910 



85,000 



1911 



90,000 



1912 



95,000 



1913 



100,000 



1914 



105,000 



1915 



110,000 



1916 



115,000 



1917 



120,000 



