and Magazine of the Ceylon Agricultural Society.— Octootr, 1911. 371 



COGONUT PROSPECTS. 



There is a belief (which may be well founded) 

 that in the immediate future we are to witness 

 a promotion " boom " in connection- with the 

 coconut palm. During the past year or two the 

 products of this tree have commanded very high 

 and very profitable prices. Copra, for example, 

 has been sold consistently for many mouths 

 past at levels which are not calculated to leave 

 the producers of the coconuts in a state of 

 abject poverty ; indeed, we might assert, with- 

 out fear of any charge of exaggeration, that the 

 profits attaching to such sales have been the 

 reverse of meagre. It is now a common-place 

 among an investing public having substantial 

 amounts embarked in Middle East rubber pro- 

 positions to hear at almost every turn the coco- 

 nut tree described as the Consols of this parti- 

 cular portion of the earth. And in a very large 

 measure this is true. What this tree does not 

 represent to a certain portion of humanity it is 

 difficulty to say ; on the other hand, what the 

 cultivation may moan to the British investor 

 involves a consideration of possibilities on an 

 entirely different basis. In the first place, a 

 public, asked to support coconut propositions 

 in the form of joint-stock companies, have got 

 to differentiate, and that very clearly, between 

 such proposals and those which involve the 

 cultivation of rubber. At first eight this asser- 

 tion may appear unnecessary, but closer con- 

 sideration of the very best of coconut proposi- 

 tions— in the Middle East, at any rate — will 

 prove the essentiality of our attitude in this 

 matter. Coconuts embody a peculiarly native 

 investment; rubber never did, and, generally 

 speaking, never will. Coconuts, if not exactly 

 indigenous to the Middle East, have been a culti- 

 vation, from the purely native standpoint, for 

 centuries past ; rubber is a cultivation of yes- 

 terday. A tropical agricultural condition within 

 the zone inferred by this statement admits of 

 the growth of the coconut palm ; until Euro- 

 pean enterprise indicated possibilities other- 

 wise, the cultivation of rubber was regarded 

 as next to the absurd. We, the aliens, have 

 shown the commercial potentialities of the lat- 

 ter ; we must exercise the utmost care that we 

 do not over-emphasise the possibilities of the 

 former cultivation. 



In putting the matter thus bluntly we are in 

 no way deprecating the commercial prospects of 

 the coconut palm grown under plantation con- 

 ditions. It has been shown in the immediate 

 past that this cultivation can be made profitable 

 from the standpoint of the average investor, 

 but no investor in projects associated with such 

 an agricultural business must look for returns 

 equivalent to those obtained by some of the 

 older rubber plantations in the Middle East. 

 It has been put to us by men well qualified to 

 form and hold opinions in this connection, that 

 10 to 15 pc-r cent, is the best that the investor 

 may reasonably expect from any Middle East 

 coconut plantation. Accepting this statement 

 as savouring of conservatism, we might allow 

 an ultimate and a steady 20 per cent, to be the 

 return upon a carefully-capitalised investment 

 Qi this gharacter, The profits, naturally, are not 



dependent upon the mere sale of the coco- 

 nuts a well-planted property may be expected 

 to produce at the end of seven or eight years. 

 They are the outcome of the sale of copra 

 made, of course, from the nuts obtained from 

 the trees. Some months ago we pointed out 

 that a good maize year in the United States 

 meant a very considerable difference in the 

 selling price of this commodity. The statement 

 was regarded by some of our readers as cryptic ; 

 but it was not in reality so. Until recent years 

 the consuming utiliser of fats depended upon the 

 animal product tor his main source of supply 

 of the commodity essential to his purpose ; 

 within recent times the comparative scarceness 

 of such supplies necessitated application to 

 other, in this particular case to vegetable, 

 sources. To go no further than the soapmaker, 

 we have in this business a very important source 

 of demand for fats. Failing animal supplies, he 

 turns, as is only natural, to vegetable, and in the 

 main product of the coconut — namely, copra — 

 ho fiuds exactly what he wants. The rising 

 price of copra during the padt few years merely 

 reflects the growing demand from this and 

 other utilizers of oils in the course of their 

 business, while the absence of animal fats as 

 sources of initial supply lor the manufacture of 

 artificial butters has tended to accentuate the 

 improvement in the selling price of this parti- 

 cular commodity. So far as we can see, there 

 is no reasonable prospect of a substantial im- 

 provement in the supplies of purely animal fats 

 in the near future. In point of fact, we should 

 oe inclined to say that the reverse is likely to 

 prove the case. 



This does not, however, warrant us, or any- 

 body else, presupposing that every coconut pro- 

 position which may come before the public, as 

 come they will, is worthy of the investor's con- 

 sideration. Just as has been amply proved the 

 case in connection with rubber propositions, we 

 are bound to find coconut propositions other 

 than Mid-Eastern appealing to the public for 

 support on figures based upon what may be done 

 in Ceylon and Malaya with this particular culti- 

 vation. The best of the Middle East coconut 

 companies have been launched free of all pre- 

 tence as to absurd possibilities ; the best of the 

 non-Middle East that have come under our 

 notice up to the present can maKe no such claim. 

 There are bound to be Middle East absurdities 

 in this particular connection, just as there were 

 absurdities associated with rubber cultivation. 

 To say that no coconut plantation outside the 

 Middle East can pay, or could be honestly con- 

 ducted, would be foolish to a degree. To assume, 

 at the same time, that the majority of such pro- 

 positions want the most careful consideration 

 at the hands of potential investors is not going 

 beyond the regions of cold common-sense. What 

 the public have got to understand and appreciate 

 in the matter of coconut promotions is that at 

 best they are out to obtain an interest in a really 

 remunerative investment and at worst they are 

 likely to be no more badly left thaa a good 

 many were who insisted upon purchasing 

 shares in what to the same individual was aii 

 obviously undesirable Middle East rubber pro- 

 mq(bion , ~F inmcier. 



