490 



[December, 1911. 



GUMS, RESINS, SAPS AND EXUDATIONS. 



"PARA VERSUS CEYLON." 



(Prom the India Rubber World, Vol. 

 XLIV., No. 6, September 1, 1911.) 



One of the principal factors in estimat- 

 ing the future of rubber is the prospect- 

 ive increase in the Oriental supply. In 

 bis interesting review of the subject (in 

 the Portuguese language), "Para versus 

 Ceylao," Senhoi J. A. Mendes, of Para, 

 has grouped a number of statistical 

 returns, extending the scope of his 

 observations so as to include the Asiatic 

 yield in general. 



World's Production and Consump- 

 tion. 



Taking the natural starting point, 

 the record of the world's production 

 and consumption during the five years 

 preceding 1910, the following result is 

 shown : — 



Production. 

 Tons. 

 69.507 

 67,918 

 68.646 

 67,0'U 

 69,672 



1905 

 1906 

 1907 

 1908 

 1909 



Consumption. 

 Tons. 

 65.727 

 71,671 

 64,628 

 67.081 

 70,075 



Production and consumption thus kept 

 on about a level during this quinquen- 

 nial period. 



Calling the annual production for 

 1909, 70,000 tons, its sources are shown to 

 be approximately : — 



Tons. 



South America ... 49,000 



Central Ametiea, etc. ... 12,800 

 Ceylon, Malay States, etc.... 6,500 

 Africa ... 10,700 



Total tons . . 70 000 



While a normal or moderate degree of 

 increase might be witnessed from other 

 sources, Seuhor Mendes gives promin- 

 ence to that anticipated from Asia, 



Asiatic Exports of Rubber. 

 Although the 1909 amount quoted is 

 somewhat less than that already shown 

 in the general summary, the general 

 statistical bearing of the figures below is 

 not affected, as embracing the aggregate 

 exports of rubber from Ceylon, Malay 

 States, Sumatra, Java, India, etc. 





Tons. 



1905 



145 



1906 



510 



1907 



1,010 



1908 



1,800 



1909 



3,600 



1910 (estimated) ... 



8,000 



The gradual increase recorded for the 

 mere recent years is the direct result of 

 the development of planting. This view 

 of the case is supported by the state- 

 ment that there are now in the Malay 

 States and Ceylon over 600,000 acres, 

 planted with more than 21.000,000 Hevea 

 trees, almost in a productive condition 

 to the relative maturity of part of which 

 is due the augmented figure of rubber 

 exports. 



Future op the Asiatic Rubber 

 Supply. 



Passing from the field of statistical 

 record to that of estimate, it is not 

 surprising to find divergence of views 

 as to the increase to be looked for within 

 the next four or five years in Asiatic 

 exports, while the general prospect of 

 a larger Eastern yield does not seem to 

 have been questioned. Two pertinent 

 estimates are quoted in this connection 

 to Sanhor Mendes. that of Mr. Ruther- 

 ford (a gentleman largely interested 

 in E istern plantations) being to the 

 following effect : — 



Tons. 



1911 ... ... 8,100 



1912 ... ... 12.100 



1913 ... ... 17.040 



1914 ... . ... 22.670 



1915 ... ... 27.: J 00 



1916 ... ... 35,620 



Par in excess of these figures is the 

 anticipation expressed by Sir John An- 

 derson (when High Commissioner of the 

 Federated Malay States), that by 1916 

 the Asiatic production would amount to 

 70.000 tons ; that being, it will be noticed, 

 just the amount of the world's yield in 

 1909. Applying the last-named estimate 

 to a forecast of the year 1915-1916, and 

 contrasting the result thus anticipated, 

 with the record for 19C9, the following 

 comparison is established : — 



Production. Estimate. 

 1909 tons. 19 151/916 tons. 

 South America 40.000 43,780 

 Orient ... 6,500 71,940 

 Africa, Central 



America, etc. 23,500 26,522 



Total tons 70.000 142,242 



Estimated increase of product 72,242 

 tons. 



Comparison op Brazilian and Asiatic 

 Qualities, 

 While the question at issue has been 

 mainly treated from a statistical point 

 of view, an interesting and lengthy 

 quotation from a recent article in the 

 " Bulletin de 1' Association des Plan- 



