5 



North Carolina: H look ahoad 



BY SARAH FRIDAY 



Paul Wilms, director of the N.C. Divi- 

 sion of Environmental Management, 

 has done some figuring to find out 

 what might happen to coastal Carolina. 



Using a 5-foot sea level rise as an 

 example, he says 1.23 million acres in 

 coastal North Carolina would be inun- 

 dated, ranging from 6,000 acres in 

 Chowan County to more than 260,000 

 acres in Hyde County. 



Such a rise would disrupt nearly 

 every aspect of life there, he says. (See 

 story, this page.) 



"This is an issue that can create mass 

 hysteria," Pietrafesa says. "Property 

 values at the coast could plummet." 



Whether we'll see such changes in 

 our lifetimes is anybody's guess, 

 Pietrafesa says. He adds, "I'm a scien- 

 tist. I never say I know until I really know." 



Much of coastal Carolina is barely above sea 

 level. Because of the gentle slope of the 

 region, even a 1-foot sea level rise could 

 claim many acres of land 



Future sea level. 



Present sea level. 



Armor or retreat. 



That's the choice people eventually 

 will have to make at the coast if sea 

 level rise continues, says Paul Wilms, 

 director of North Carolina's Division of 

 Environmental Management. 



While scientists battle out the "when" 

 of sea level rise, Wilms is studying the 

 "where and how" for North Carolina. 



He is part of a small clan of researchers 

 and authorities who foresee major 

 decisions for the state if the 

 greenhouse theory becomes fact. As 

 sea level rises, North Carolina's 

 coastal farms, homes, bridges, wet- 

 lands and drinking water will be 

 devastated, they say. 



Others want to wait and see if it will 

 happen at all. 



Right now, eastern North Carolina 

 lies like a long, flat road curving 

 around the water's edge. The road 

 makes up 320 miles of coastline and 

 at least 3,000 miles of estuarine 

 shoreline. And in 22 coastal counties, 

 its elevations range from 100 feet 

 above sea level to only a few feet. 



If warming trends continue, Wilms 

 estimates that 1.2 million acres of 

 lowlands, swamps and marsh in North 

 Carolina would be flooded with a 

 5-foot rise in sea level. Much more 

 would be impacted. 



Six counties at the coast would be 

 hit the hardest, Wilms says. Three- 

 fourths of the flooding would occur in 

 Hyde (21 percent), Dare (17.5), Tyrrell 

 (15.1), Carteret (7.5), Currituck (6.8) and 

 Pamlico (4.8) counties. 



There's no doubt sea level rise 

 could cause significant environmental, 

 economic and social impacts in North 

 Carolina, Wilms says. 



The environmental impacts of sea 



level rise are not bad, Wilms says. 

 Nature has a way of bouncing back 

 and adjusting to the changes. But the 

 impacts on people pack a stronger 

 punch. 



As sea level inches up the back 

 steps of an oceanfront home or fills in 

 the pool of a beachside condominium 

 complex, people will demand expen- 

 sive sea walls, bulkheads, beach 

 nourishment and other measures to 

 save their investments. 



"I'm convinced that the environmen- 

 tal impacts of mankind's response to 

 sea level rise will be worse than the 

 ecological impacts of the phenome- 

 non itself," Wilms says. 



"Vested interests will demand we 

 have protectionist strategies," he says. 

 "People who have built will demand it." 



Eventually, each community must 

 choose whether to build structures to 

 hold back the sea or to retreat, Wilms 

 says. Most likely they'll opt for protec- 

 tion in the short-term, he says, but 

 they should have a long-term strategy 

 to move back. 



To Wilms, retreat is the only long- 

 term solution. 



His numbers suggest that 282,000 

 permanent residents in 18 of the 22 

 coastal counties would have to move if 

 a 5-foot rise in sea level occurred. 

 That's about 44 percent of the 1986 

 population for those counties. 



Webb Fuller, Nags Head town 

 manager, knows of the greenhouse 

 theory and is aware of its possibilities, 

 but he hasn't pulled out his bullhorn yet. 



"Yes we're concerned about it." Yet, 

 he adds, "There are a lot more press- 

 ing issues than to worry about some- 



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