Projected change in North Carolina's shoreline with a 5-foot rise in sea level 



A look ahead continued 



thing that may happen in 2030." 



"We're not doing anything about it. I 

 don't think we can realistically do 

 anything yet," Fuller says. "When we 

 see more erosion, houses falling in, 

 and more concrete research with ris- 

 ing sea level— it will then become an 

 issue in the forefront." 



Until then, we wait and speculate. 



Along with flooding, expect the bar- 

 rier islands to move west, and beach 

 erosion and saltwater intrusion to in- 

 crease, Wilms says. He figures 500 to 

 5,000 feet of beach would erode in 

 North Carolina with the 5-foot rise. 



Spencer Rogers anticipates other 

 problems, too, with sea level rise. 



"One of the concerns is the effect 

 on wetlands," says Sea Grant's coastal 

 engineer. "Pamlico and Albemarle 

 sound wetlands are seeing some of 

 the highest erosion. As sea level rises, 

 the wetlands will move into higher 

 grounds. The area of the wetlands will 

 go down," he adds. 



With saltwater intrusion, the mixing 

 zone— where the ocean and river 

 meet— moves up the river. This could 

 affect areas where communities draw 

 fresh water and could change surface 

 and groundwater levels, Rogers says. 

 Plants and aquatic life accustomed to 

 fresh water would likely be wiped out 

 when the salt water moved in, he 

 adds. 



And it could mean a loss of 

 thousands of acres of eastern North 

 Carolina farmland. 



Hyde County farmers have been 

 battling the sea for decades. But in 

 the past few years, an increasing por- 

 tion of the county's farmland has been 

 lost to saltwater intrusion. 



About 60 to 70 percent of the coun- 

 ty's farmers use tide gates or dikes to 

 block salt water from flowing into 

 ditches that drain most of their fields, 

 says Daniel E. Smith, Hyde County's 

 extension director. Without the gates, 



about half of the land would be 

 useless. 



J.W. Spencer hesitates to blame the 

 intrusion on the greenhouse effect. 

 But like other Hyde County farmers, 

 he can't deny sea level is rising. 



"This greenhouse effect— if that's 

 Mother Nature's course, you can't stop 

 it," Spencer says. "You can slow it 

 down, but you can't stop it." 



But he adds, "Who's to say that the 

 trend won't change. We can't predict 

 it. Weathermen have a hard time 

 predicting the weather one day to the 

 next." 



Fishermen, too, are watching the 

 water. Wilms estimates that 65 percent 

 of North Carolina's primary nursery 

 areas will be lost with a 5-foot rise in 

 sea level. Commercial fishing would 

 be out, he says, but the industry may 

 come back as new estuaries form. 



Already, researchers in New 

 Hanover County suspect sea level rise 

 as a culprit in the death of gum and 

 cypress trees along the northeast por- 

 tion of the Cape Fear River. 



One landowner there has watched 



tree after tree die as salt water pushes 

 up the river. Researchers from the 

 University of North Carolina at Wil- 

 mington and a team of specialists 

 found that high salinity in the intrusive 

 waters was the killer. 



With the rise, sewage sytems, waste- 

 water treatment plants, buildings, 

 roadways, bridges, wharves and piers 

 would need to be totally restructured, 

 Wilms says. Disposal sites would 

 become contaminated. And leeching 

 of pollutants and toxics into ground- 

 water and surface water would be 

 enhanced by rising sea level. 



Wilms would like to see the state 

 devise a policy as soon as possible to 

 address these issues. But, realistically, 

 he knows that politicians will not re- 

 spond to the greenhouse effect until it 

 is imminent. 



"Retreat is going to happen with an 

 orderly plan or it's going to happen 

 catastrophically," Wilms says. "We 

 have some say today in how that's go- 

 ing to happen. And we have some 

 say today in how we can provide 

 short-term protection." 



