1 9 1 o.J Value of Crop Estimates to the Farmer. 575 



International Institute of Agriculture to do away with this un- 

 certainty as to the condition of the growing crops of the world 

 and the probable world supply of the staples. 



The Institute is a world observatory, established by the 

 act of the adhering Governments, for the purpose of supplying 

 producers and consumers with all the information obtainable 

 on the conditions and prospects of the crops of the world. 



The information supplied by the Institute is reliable, be- 

 cause it is supplied by each adhering Government, and a 

 Government is in the most favourable position for ascer- 

 taining the truth and has no interest in misrepresenting it 

 when once ascertained, as the Government represents the sum 

 of the various interests existing in each country. 



The information supplied by the Institute is precise, as it 

 is given in percentage form. No verbal descriptions, however 

 full, are as clear as figures. The statement that the yield of 

 a crop in a given country is expected to be 10 per cent, higher 

 than the previous year is understood by all, whereas the state- 

 ment that in some districts rains have been beneficial to the 

 crops, and that in others favourable weather gives hopes of 

 an abundant yield, is vague and leads to nothing. 



Up to the present, however, it has only been possible to 

 make preliminary arrangements with this view, and some time 

 will still have to elapse before the Institute can accomplish its 

 purpose, which is to give the world-summary of the supply of 

 the different staples expressed as a single numerical statement. 



Divergence between Existing Estimates. — As an indication 

 of the necessity of establishing a definite and authoritative 

 estimate of the world's production, the Institute in its Sep- 

 tember Bulletin makes a comparison of the four leading esti- 

 mates which have been issued this year of the world's wheat 

 production. These estimates, if compared with similar 

 figures for the preceding year, show a marked divergence as 

 regards the important question whether the 1910 crop is likely 

 to be above or below that of 1909. According to the figures 

 of the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, the world's pro- 

 duction of wheat in 1910 shows a decrease of about ij per 

 cent., as compared with the production in 1909. The figures 

 of the Hungarian Ministry of Agriculture, on the contrary, 



