578 



THE NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE 



A TIMBER FAMINE NOT UNLIKELY 



In this country, where the per capita 

 consumption is six times as great as 

 that in Germany or France and the an- 

 nual growth per acre may be estimated 

 roughly as one-third of that in those 

 countries, the forest area would have to 

 be i, 600 acres for each 100 inhabitants, 

 or more than twice the present area, in 

 order to maintain the present cut. The 

 present area of 775 acres for every 100 

 inhabitants at the present per capita con- 

 sumption and annual growth per acre 

 would be insufficient to meet our own 

 needs if there were not present a sup- 

 ply of virgin timber, the accumulated 

 capital of centuries, to meet the defi- 

 ciency. With the exhaustion of this re- 

 maining virgin supply, which can last 

 only about thirty years more, there must 

 come a time when not only all our ex- 

 ports of timber must cease, but there 

 will not be enough wood for home con- 

 sumption. 



Even as it is, the total exports of wood 

 from this country amount to only 5 per 

 cent of the lumber cut, while the surplus 

 of exports over imports is only 1.8 per 

 cent — an insignificant amount. This 

 shows clearly that we have practically 

 ceased to be an exporting country, and 

 the tendency will be more and more 

 toward becoming a wood-importing 

 country. 



How shall this shortage be met ? 



With an increasing demand for land 

 for agricultural crops there is little hope 

 of increasing the extent of forest land. 

 As we have seen, the area necessary for 

 this purpose would have to be more than 

 double the present area, and this is en- 

 tirely out of the question. Much of the 

 land now under forest, but capable of 

 producing crops, will have to be cleared 

 and tilled to provide for an increased 

 population. All the evidence, therefore, 

 is that the land under forest will, during 

 the next fifty years, be reduced to 450,- 

 000,000 acres, and this reduced area will 

 have to provide for a population almost 

 twice as large as the present. Nor will 

 there be much hope for covering the 



shortage in our home production by im- 

 portations from abroad. 



no help from abroad 



The demand for timber is constantly 

 growing all over the world. It increases 

 at the rate of 5 per cent annually. If 

 we compare the total excess of imports 

 over exports of all wood-importing coun- 

 tries of Europe with the total excess of 

 exports over imports of all wood-ex- 

 porting countries, we shall find that there 

 is a deficit for Europe of 141,000,000 

 cubic feet, which is met at present by 

 imports from North America. Sweden, 

 Norway, and Austria-Hungary have al- 

 ready touched the highest point in their 

 exports. Russia could probably increase 

 to some extent its exports from the north, 

 where there are still large areas of virgin 

 forest, but the growing home consump- 

 tion and the growing scarcity of timber 

 in the other parts of the Empire make it 

 very unlikely that larger supplies of tim- 

 ber for export will be available. Can- 

 ada is still able to increase its exports, 

 but the drain upon the Canadian forests 

 is growing every year, and they will re- 

 main the only source of supply to satisfy 

 the urgent needs of the rest of the world 

 for coniferous timber after Austria-Hun- 

 gary and Russia cease to be exporting 

 countries. Under such conditions there 

 will be many bidders for the Canadian 

 timber, and the United States will by no 

 means have an exclusive claim. 



The growing demand for wood ma- 

 terial must be met, then, not by an in- 

 crease of the forest land nor by depend- 

 ing on imports from abroad, but by an 

 increase in the productiveness of the 

 forest and a decrease in the waste, to 

 which chiefly is due the fact that the 

 United States has the greatest per capita 

 consumption in the world. 



A reduction of the per capita con- 

 sumption of wood in the United States 

 would not mean a lowering of the 

 standard of living, as would be the case, 

 for instance, with a similar decrease in 

 the consumption of wheat. Abundance 

 breeds extravagance, and the present per 

 capita consumption is not a true indica- 



