Children in the United States 



though at varying rates, in each suc- 

 cessive decade. This of itself, however, 

 is not enough to prove a declining birth 

 rate, as the decrease in the proportion 

 of children in the total population may 

 indicate merely an increase in the aver- 

 age duration of life and the consequent 

 survival of a larger number of adults. 



But by taking the proportion of chil- 

 dren to women of child-bearing age we 

 are able to get a more satisfactory index 

 of the movement of the birth rate. Be- 

 tween 1850 and i860, the earliest decade 

 for which figures can be obtained, this 

 proportion increased. But since i860 

 it has decreased without interruption. 

 The decrease has been very unequal 

 from decade to decade, but if twenty- 

 year periods are considered, it has been 

 very regular. In i860 the number of 

 children under 5 years of age to 1,000 

 women 15 to 49 years of age was 634 ; in 

 1900 it was only 474. In other words, 

 the proportion of children to potential 

 mothers in 1900 was only three-fourths 

 as large as in i860. One is thus led to 

 the conclusion that there has been a per- 

 sistent decline in the birth rate since 1 860. 



No attempt is made by the author of 

 the bulletin to determine the probable 

 causes of this decline. An extended 

 argument by Gen. Francis A. Walker 

 is given, suggesting that it is largely 

 due to the influx of foreigners and the 

 resultant shock to the population in- 

 stinct of the natives. Professor Willcox 

 does not express a definite opinion, 

 claiming that the vital statistics of the 

 United States are not sufficiently devel- 

 oped to afford a sound basis of j udgment. 

 He notes, however, that there has been 

 a similar marked decline in the birth 

 rate of Australia, where there has been 

 no such torrent of immigration. 



DECLINE GREATEST IN NORTH AND 

 WEST 



If this decline were due in large part 

 to the influx of immigrants, we should 

 expect it to be greatest in those sections 



of the country to which most of the im- 

 migrants have gone — greater in the 

 North and West than in the South. It 

 is found, in fact, that in the North and 

 West there has been a more or less 

 regular decline, while in the South the 

 change has been less regular and the 

 decline less marked. In 1850 the pro- 

 portion of children to 1,000 women in 

 the North and West was five-sixths of 

 what it was in the South ; in 1900 it 

 was less than three-fourths. 



In 1900 the smallest proportion of 

 children was in the District of Colum- 

 bia, where the number of children under 

 5 was hardly more than one- fourth the 

 number of women of child-bearing age. 

 But from the sociological standpoint the 

 District of Columbia should be classed 

 with cities rather than with states and 

 territories. The next smallest propor- 

 tion was that for Massachusetts, where 

 it was slightly more than one- third. 

 The largest proportion was in North 

 Dakota and Indian Territory, in each 

 of which it was two-thirds. 



There was an unusual decrease in the 

 proportion of children between i860 

 and 1870, which must be attributed to 

 the direct and indirect results of the 

 civil war. 



PROPORTION OF CHILDREN AMONG 

 WHITES 



The decrease in the proportion of 

 white children under 10 to the total 

 white population began as early as the 

 decade 18 10 to 1820, and has continued 

 without interruption, but with varying 

 rapidity, to the end of the century. 

 The greatest decreases were found in 

 the decades of greatest immigration, 

 and may have been due in part to the 

 disproportionate number of adults in 

 the new immigrant population. The 

 decreases in the decades 1850 to i860 

 and 1 890 to 1900 were very slight. The 

 fact that these were the decades imme- 

 diately following the great waves of im- 

 migration suggests that the check in 



