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Can we mean by cliance an event without a cause ? Cer- 

 tainly not. Does it imply that the causes are so obscure and 

 so baffle our conceptions and investigations^ that we say the 

 effects or results which we can appreciate have taken place by 

 chance? If so, it may be somewhat of the meaning of the 

 word ; yet this can scarcely be so always, for we do not say 

 that a plant ripens its fruit by chance, though we understand 

 not the laws of its development nor the processes of its fruc- 

 tification. 



To such results we assign the term law, and not chance, 

 solely because we see the same effects issuing from similar 

 causes. If the expected result do not, however, occur, as when 

 a plant refuses to ripen its seed, we consider that it is due to 

 some unaccountable interference of unexpected conditions. 

 These may sometimes be accounted for in a general way, as, e.g., 

 excessive wet, bligho of fungus or caterpillar, &c. ; but as often 

 not; so that, as the result is often practically uncertain, we 

 cultivate crops knowingly at a certain risk, saying that it will 

 be all chance whether we get a good harvest or not. Such, 

 then, may be considered as one form of chance, namely, when 

 events take place contrary to our expectations. A very general 

 signification, however, w^ould seem to imply undesignedness in 

 the results, or when an event takes place to the exclusion of 

 some other event which, as far as human experience, judgment, 

 or foresight can calculate, might as easily [and, perhaps, with 

 more probability] have occurred.^^ {Walkefs Dictionary , s. v. 



Chance.'^ 



Thus, for example of undesignedness. A man travels from 

 London to York, his friend travels from York to London, 

 neither being aware of the intentions of the other. They meet 

 by chance. Here, then, we have an undesigned coincidence. 



A familiar instance of the latter definition, given by Walker, 

 will be found in racing. Two men may run ; one, from former 

 experience, and from appearing to be the better runner, may 

 be expected to win, yet from some chance the other may. An- 

 other explanation of the word will be found in a cause, or series 

 of causes, although known as to their nature, yet cannot be 

 traced and calculated. Thus a die falls from the box with ace 

 uppermost. This we attribute to chance ; but if we knew the 

 position of the die in the box, all the forces and their direc- 

 tions which are brought into play by shaking the box, all the 

 parabolic curves which the die describes, and all the attendant 

 circumstances of motion upon the die, the result would be cer- 

 tainty. These causes, however, are not traceable ; and we say, 

 accordingly, that the result of the ace being uppermost was 

 purely a matter of chance. 



