THE FUTURE OF ISLAM. 



69 



Turkish government most earnestly that " the intentions of Our 

 Lord and His followers are only religious and have not the 

 least connection with politics." But when in another document 

 the same writer calls his master " the One into whose hands 

 the kingdom has been delivered and the reins of government 

 have been placed, and for this reason he who disobeys his 

 commands disobeys the commands of God," tlie Turkish 

 authorities may be pardoned for mistaking their intentions. 



Both this writer and others, including such an authority as 

 Lord Curzon, accept the statements made by Babis of their 

 numbers, which according to them should include something like 

 mi eighth of the population of Persia. These estimates should 

 be received with some caution, and it seems unlikely that the 

 movement is gaining ground at the present time, even if it is 

 not being displaced by something newer. Even in the East 

 ••systems which are mainly mystic in character, though attractive 

 to more minds than in Europe, rarely have any power of 

 permanently interesting any number of persons whose approval 

 is of importance ; they resemble the rich food which the 

 mature palate rejects for what is more homely, but more 

 nourishing. The new systems which spring up within 

 Mohammedanism are compared by Schweinfurth in a rather 

 brilliant passage* to the showers which occasionally enliven 

 the desert, but effect no alteration in the character of the soil. 

 There is no trace of a movement within Islam having taken 

 place in the nineteenth century which has not its exact 

 analogue in the earlier history of Islam ; those movements have, 

 according to circumstances, attained small or large dimensions, 

 have led to much bloodshed or only occasional assassinations, 

 have been forcibly suppressed, or have expired of themselves ; 

 the utmost they have been able to effect is the production of 

 some literary monuments of interest, and those of the nine- 

 teenth century appear to have been unable to effect even this. 



The point from which speculation on this subject should start 

 is the well-known fact that the political ascendancy of Islam is 

 fast disappearing. In 1870 it could be asserted that two- thirds 

 of the Mohammedan world was governed by non-Moslem 

 nations ; in 1902 the proportion is nearer five-sixths. Great 

 Britain governs about a half of the Moslem world ; Eussia and 

 France account for a large slice of the remainder. The states 

 that remain independent are in constant dread of being 



* The Heart of Africa, ii, 434. 



