252 



AGEICULTURAL DEPRESSION IN GERMANY. [Dec. 1896; 



was profitable, these mortgages could gradually ba paid off, but 

 with profits decreasing more rapidly than the general rate of 

 interest, it became necessary to raise fresh loans in order to pay 

 the interest on the old ones, and for general purposes. 



The primary cause of the decrease in farming profits is, 

 however, the fall in the price of grain. According to the 

 statistics for 1893, the principal cereal crops were grown on 

 54 per cent, of the arable land of Germany, or including pulse 

 and the less usual grain crops, such as maize, on 60 per cent. 

 Under these circumstances, it is obvious that the price of 

 cereals is the determining factor for the prosperity of agriculture. 

 With a few temporary fluctuations, the movement has in recent 

 years been steadily downward, as shown by the following table 

 of average prices for the kingdom of Prussia : — 





Wheat 



Rye 



Barley 



Oats 



Year. 



(per 



(per 



(per 



(per 





Quarter). 



Quarter). 



Quarter). 



Quarter) . 





.v. d. 



s. d. 



s. d. 



s. d. 



1861-70 ----- 



43 3 



33 3 



24 8 



19 2 



1871-80 ----- 



47 3 



37 1 



29 8 



22 5 



1881-90 - 



38 4 



32 8 



26 3 



20 3 



1891 - - - - - 



47 0 



44 8 



30 6 



23 2 



1892 



40 0 



38 3 



26 0 



21 3 



1893 ... - - 



32 3 



29 0 



25 6 



22 1 



1894 ----- 



27 11 



25 1 



24 11 



20 0 



1895 ----- 



29 2 



25 7 



21 9 



17 0 



1896 (January to June) - 



31 11 



26 0 



22 8 



17 3 



Among the various opinions expressed as to the causes of this 

 fall in price, Mr. Whitehead says that it has been attributed to 

 (1) the facilities of transport by sea and rail which enable large 

 quantities of grain of trans-oceanic origin to be put on the 

 European market at a low rate ; (2) to the appreciation of gold,, 

 and to the fact that its increased purchasing power depresses 

 general prices, with the result that in countries with depreciated 

 currencies, this depreciation acts as a premium on the exporta- 

 tion of cereals to gold countries ; (3) to speculation on the Corn 

 Exchange ; and finally (4) to the fact that the principal corn* 

 producing countries, being largely indebted to the gold countries, 

 must pay the interest on their loans in cereals, and are, there- 

 fore obliged to accept even the lowest prices offered, in order 

 to fulfil their obligations. 



A conviction that profitable corn-growing is a necessary con- 

 dition for the prosperity of German agriculture has led to 

 various proposals for artificially sustaining the price of cereals. 

 An increase of customs duties was found not to be possible until 

 after the lapse of the commercial treaties. The Kanitz proposal 

 for the State monopoly of the import of grain also came into 

 conflict with the treaties, and presented insuperable difficulties 

 in execution, in addition to which it was considered doubtful 



