Notes on Persia, 



[July 



expedition against Khiva, whose territory they plundered, and 800 

 Cossacks established themselves on an island at the mouth of the river. 

 They only returned at the command of the Russian government. 



I do not purpose entering into the much agitated, and little under- 

 stood, question of Russian invasion of India. That a great and in- 

 creasing state, will continue to gain on the savage tribes on its frontier, 

 is but the usual course of things, and which nothing can long prevent. 

 On once passing her present limits, she must fix her new frontier line 

 either on the Sir Derria, or on the Oxus, as on the banks of these 

 rivers only can she find lands, or even water, for the support of the 

 frontier posts. The Oxus presents so many advantages over the other, 

 that I cannot suppose there will be much hesitation on the subject. 

 This river is navigable for boats from the mountains of Baduckshau to 

 the sea of Aral ; the power commanding its banks must exercise a 

 great influence over both Persia and Afghanistan. For trade alone 

 this would be a great object, and probably the one now really aimed at ; 

 and, in the first instance, Khiva will be occupied, and probably colonized 

 with Cossacks or Tartars from Russia. Some advantage in point of 

 territory will be, at the same time, offered to Persia and Bokhara. 

 Under no circumstances can Khiva expect aid from the surrounding 

 states ; she has too deeply injured every one, to expect any thing but 

 enmity from her neighbours, and her own power is totally unequal to 

 any effectual resistance. With Bokhara a good understanding will, if 

 possible, be established. From this position, in the event of a quarrel 

 with England, by demanding a passage for troops, assembling soldiers, 

 and making a shew of invasion, Russia would threaten our possessions, 

 and oblige us to make preparations against her, besides keeping 

 embassies in the neighbouring states. I am firmly persuaded that for 

 some years she could not make any serious attempt or permanent im- 

 pression, except through our own negligence. The aid of Russia would 

 without doubt be eagerly courted by the different families now dis- 

 puting the possession of Afghanistan, and repelling the Seiks; or 

 Persia would be happy to avail herself of their aid to recover Herat, 

 and her former possessions in Khorasan. But it is useless specu- 

 lating on the probable conduct of a state, which has every chance 

 of falling into anarchy, and being incapable of any efficient ex- 

 ternal exertion. Civil war may bring forward some bold and able 

 chief, like Nadir Shah, who will soon change the political state of his 

 country. 



For any enterprise of Russia, either actually to invade, or threaten, 

 our possessions, the route by Tartary is, in my opinion, preferable. The 

 line of her operations can be secured, from Orenburg to the banks of 

 the Oxus, by her own Tartar subjects ; she can convey the necessary 

 stores and supplies the greatest part of the way by water, with the 



