160 



Part III — Seventh Annual Report 



rise in the number of barrels exported, and from 1885 to 1888 a 

 gradual and progressive decline. This rise and fall is participated in both 

 by Germany and Russia. In 1884 the exports to these two countries 

 reached a maximum of 1,148,249 barrels, out of a total export of 

 1,185,220| barrels, and a total number cured of 1,697,077 barrels. In 

 1888 the total had fallen to 734, 294 \ barrels, out of an export of 

 774,193 barrels and a total number cured of 1,1 18,872 J, or a decrease 

 of 413,955 barrels exported to Germany and Eussia as compared with 

 1884, which is the lowest quantity during the past seven years. The 

 significance of such figures, however, can only be rightly understood if 

 they are reduced to percentages. In the seven years for which we have 

 statistics, we find the percentages of exports to Germany and Russia to 

 be as follows : — 



Germany. Russia. 





Percentage 

 of Total 

 cured in 

 Scotland. 



Percentage 

 of Total 

 Exports. 



Percentage 

 of Total 

 cured in 

 Scotland. 



Percentage 

 of Total 

 Exports. 



1882 



551 



85-6 



5-8 



9-0 



1883 



59-0 



84-2 



8-8 



12-6 



1884 



58-2 



83-3 



9'4 



13-5 



1885 



60-0 



83-6 



10-1 



14-1 



1886 



59-2 



82-9 



9-8 



137 



1887 



53-8 



81-0 



9-5 



14-3 



1888 



54-1 



78-2 



11-4 



16-6 



These figures are very significant, we see that the percentage of exports 

 direct to Russia have risen gradually and considerably, and that the 

 exports to Germany have fallen. The causes which produce these 

 fluctuations are no doubt various and complex. It must be remarked, 

 however, that Russia receives very large quantities of Scotch herrings, 

 via Germany, and these figures seem to show that this direct trade with 

 Russia is increasing at the expense of the indirect trade. We have no 

 information as to the amount of this indirect trade or how it has varied 

 in recent years. As is stated below, Russia a few years ago raised the 

 import duties from about 4s. 8d. to nearly 7s. per barrel of 10 poods or 

 360 lbs., and this undoubtedly has checked the trade, but it would 

 appear only the indirect trade, for if the percentage of the total exports 

 from Scotland to Germany and Russia combined are considered, we find 

 that in 1882 it was about 94"6 ; in 1883 96-8 ; in 1884 96*8 ; in 1885 

 97-7 ; in 1886 96*6 ; in 1887 95-3 ; and in 1888 94*8. The increase in 

 the direct trade with Russia is of course due to the fact that the German 

 import duties are escaped. 



It will be found from the Consular Reports from Germany and Russia, 

 referred to below, that in recent years grave allegations have been made as 

 to the trustworthiness of the Scottish Crown brands. It is stated in some 

 of them that the brands no longer always represent what the barrels contain, 

 and that their value as a commercial guarantee has become depreciated. 

 This matter might be cleared up if statistics were available showing the pro- 

 portions of branded and unbranded barrels exported to different countries, 

 and the proportions under the different brands. Unfortunately, such statis- 

 tical information is not published. But if the figures given in Tjible I. 

 of the total number of barrels cured, and the total number branded are 

 reduced to percentages we find that in recent years there has been a con- 

 siderable falling off in the proportion of barrels of cured herrings which 

 received the official brand, the proportion for last year being the lowest 

 during the seven years under consideration. 



The percentage of the branded barrels are as follows : — 



1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 

 36-0 37-1 38-4 43-8 39 '5 37 '5 34 '3 



