KARLUK RIVER RED-SALMON INVESTIGATION 



63 



five cycles that have passed since the runs became stabilized following the estab- 

 lishment of the fishery. 



Figures 33 and 34 show graphically the data presented in Table 26. Figure 33 

 gives the number of fish in the accumulated totals for each week for each of the 

 years. Figure 34 gives for each year the weekly accumulated percentage of the 

 total run for that year. In spite of the great differences in the actual size of the 

 runs, there is a remarkable uniformity in the various years in the progress and 

 development of the runs. The curves are invariably steep during June and August, 

 indicating heavy runs during those months. The tendency for the curves to flatten 

 out during July is well marked and clearly reflects the usual poor run of that month. 

 Up to the 13th of September, in most years, the run continues to be good, but it falls 

 off rapidly after that date. 



This uniformity in the development of the runs, if supported by a similar 

 study of the runs in future years, will be of very great practical value. From these 

 data it will be possible to tell, comparatively early in the season, just how large 

 the run is likely to be. With this information at hand the regulations can be so 

 adjusted as to provide an adequate spawning escapement, well distributed over the 

 season. At the same time it will be possible for the commercial fishery to plan its 

 season's work to the best advantage and to know approximately, long before the 

 end of the season, what the total pack will be. Even with the few data at hand it 

 seems probable that the total run can be prophesied with some degree of accuracy 

 at least by the end of June. The importance of doing this, from the viewpoint of 

 the fishery administrator and of the commercial fisherman, is so great that it can 

 not be overestimated. 



BASES FOR PREDICTION OF FUTURE RUNS 



Whatever may be the cause of the extensive fluctuations that occur in the size 

 of consecutive salmon runs, there can be no question that they are responsible, 

 during many seasons, for very serious economic loss. The salmon industry is 

 dependent on supplies of raw material that are available during short periods of 

 the year, varying in different districts from a few weeks to a very few months. The 

 Bristol Bay District furnishes an example of an extremely short fishing season of 

 four weeks, while the Karluk region stands near the opposite extreme with a season 

 of three months; but in all regions, long or short, complete preparations for the 

 season's operations have to be made months in advance. Funds must be secured, 

 labor contracted for, boats, fishing gear, and supplies of every description must be 

 obtained on a scale large enough to permit a maximum pack if the season proves 

 favorable in its supplies of salmon. If, for any reason, only a meager run develops, 

 the losses may well mount into the millions of dollars. Much of this loss could be 

 avoided if the unfavorable character of the season could be foretold. Operations 

 could be conducted on a reduced scale, or, in extreme cases, they could be tempo- 

 rarily discontinued. 



The direct economic saving that would result from reliable predictions of the 

 runs would be even less important than the indirect results along the line of con- 

 servation. Whatever the immediate cause of a failure in the run, this disastrous 

 condition will be perpetuated and intensified if during that season fishing opera- 



