Vol. 6, 1920 PHYSIOLOGY: F. G. BENEDICT 9 
predict the heat output of boys weighing 10 kg. and above to within an 
average accuracy of a Httle over 6%. 
From data obtained by the Nutrition Laboratory of the basal metabolism 
of 136 men, Dr. J. Arthur Harris^ has derived by biometric analysis a 
multiple prediction formula which may be used for predicting the 24-hour 
basal heat production of men, as follows : 
h = -\- 66.4730 + 13.7516?£; + 5.0033^ — 6.7550a 
In this formula h = total heat production per 24 hours, w = weight in 
kilograms, 5 = stature in centimeters, and a = age in years. 
Although in publishing this formula, it was specially emphasized that 
its application to the lower ages was not yet justified, owing to the fact 
that of the 136 subjects studied, but few were below 20 years of age, it 
has been of unusual interest to attempt a prediction of the heat output of 
these boys, using the multiple prediction formula for men. By this en- 
tirely independent method of prediction, we find that the average me- 
tabolism of the group of boys above 10 kg. is predicted to within 6 calories, 
that is, 907 calories actual as against 901 calories predicted. The average 
deviation for individual predictions is plus or minus 56 calories or 6.3%, 
giving a prediction with an accuracy identical with that obtained from the 
curve. This is of considerable practical importance as evidence that the 
metabolism of males ranging from boys of 10 kg. up to full grown adults, 
including the period of old age, may be predicted with this formula with 
an accuracy of not far from plus or minus 6%. For ordinary purposes 
the pediatrician will prefer to use the values drawn from the curve. To 
simplify its use, a table giving the most probable heat production of boys 
per 24 hours predicted directly from body weight has been prepared. 
BASAiy Hbat Production of Boys per 24 Hours Predictisd from Body Weight 
WEIGHT 
CALORIES 
WEIGHT 
CALORIES 
WEIGHT 
CALORIES 
WEIGHT 
CALORIES 
kg. 
kg. 
kg. 
kg. 
11 
590 
21 
885 
31 
1140 
12 
625 
22 
910 
32 
1160 
3 
150 
13 
660 
23 
940 
33 
1180 
4 
210 
14 
695 
24 
965 
34 
1200 
5 
270 
15 
725 
25 
990 
35 
1220 
6 
330 
16 
755 
26 
1020 
36 
1240 
7 
390 
17 
780 
27 
1045 
37 
1255 
8 
445 
18 
805 
28 
1070 
38 
1275 
9 
495 
19 
830 
29 
1090 
10 
545 
20 
860 
30 
1115 
While with adults it was clearly demonstrated that in predicting the 
heat output consideration should be given not only to body weight but 
likewise to age and stature, it is evident from this treatment that the pre- 
