John Spencer 
55 
features of the new Manchester Unity Experience being the extent of the data at 
the old ages. 
It is of course clear that neither the decline in the rate of sickness from age 16 
to about age 20 nor the bend in the curve exhibited at the other end of the table 
could be reproduced by a Makeham graduation without the aid of supplementary 
curves, and as for the moment I was concerned not so much with a graduation of 
the whole table as with an attempt to fit an A + Bc^ curve to as great an extent 
of the table as possible I decided to confine my attention to the facts for ages 
19—80. I made various groupings all of which gave a value of logio c approxi- 
mating to ■046. Eventually however I chose the data for ages 19 — 78 for closer 
investigation and from these deduced the constants given above. 
The following table shows rates of sickness based on these constants. For 
purposes of comparison the ungraduated rates are also given, together with the 
adjusted rates published in Mr Watson's volume. These latter it may be remarked 
were obtained from the rough rates by the application of a 15 term summation 
formula. 
Central Rates of Sickness. 
Age 
Bates on 
Makeham 
Hypothesis 
Ungraduated 
Kates 
Official 
Adjusted 
Bates 
Age 
Bates on 
Makeham 
Hypothesis 
Ungraduated 
Bates 
Official 
Adjusted 
Bates 
20 
•807 
•823 
•815 
50 
2-215 
2-146 
2-177 
21 
■814 
•808 
•810 
51 
2^380 
2-358 
2^347 
22 
■822 
•810 
•814 
52 
2^564 
2-550 
2^539 
23 
•830 
•824 
•823 
53 
2^767 
2-764 
2-750 
2k 
•839 
•837 
•834 
54 
2^994 
2-958 
2-978 
25 
■850 
•853 
■845 
55 
3^247 
3-240 
3-221 
26 
■861 
•851 
■856 
56 
3^527 
3-496 
3-481 
27 
•874 
■881 
•867 
57 
3^839 
3-773 
3-759 
28 
•888 
•876 
•881 
58 
4-186 
4^096 
4-065 
29 
•904 
•890 
•898 
59 
4-573 
4-398 
4-413 
30 
•922 
•917 
•918 
60 
5-002 
4-799 
4-821 
31 
•942 
•952 
•941 
61 
5-480 
5-320 
5-310 
32 
•963 
•959 
•966 
6-013 
5-827 
5-893 
33 
•988 
rooo 
•991 
63 
6-602 
6-523 
6-570 
Sit 
vol 5 
1^009 
1^020 
64 
7-260 
7-394 
7-335 
35 
1 ^045 
r063 
1 -052 
65 
7-991 
8-190 
8-183 
36 
1^078 
\-om 
V091 
66 
8-804 
9^290 
9-117 
37 
M15 
M27 
1-136 
67 
9-709 
10^035 
10-153 
38 
M57 
1-176 
1-190 
68 
10-715 
11-136 
11-302 
39 
P203 
1^257 
1-249 
69 
ir834 
12-472 
12-559 
40 
r254 
1-315 • 
1 -313 
70 
13^079 
14-092 
13-913 
41 
i-mi 
1-392 
1-378 
71 
14^463 
15-384 
15-346 
42 
r374 
1 -437 
1-443 
16^003 
16-952 
16-846 
43 
r444 
1 -510 
1-508 
73 
17^716 
18-202 
18-409 
4h 
1^522 
1 -582 
1 ^574 
If 
19-621 
19-951 
20-036 
45 
reio 
1 -632 
1 -643 
21-740 
21-619 
21-713 
46 
P706 
1-726 
1-717 
24-098 
23-641 
23-397 
47 
P814 
1-813 
1-804 
2(V719 
25^055 
25-061 
48 
49 
1 ^934 
1-877 
1-907 
78 
29-635 
26-776 
26-688 
2^067 
2-037 
2-030 
70 
32-878 
28-050 
28-265 
