( 153 ) 
IX. — Variation in the Price and Supply of PVIieat. By 
H. EVERSHED. 
The industrial condition of the country, suffering from the 
panic of 1861), was unfavourable to a transition from cheap to 
dear bread, which occurred contemporaneously with a reduction 
in the price of most other articles of produce. The prices of 
wheat per quarter, according to the imperial averages, were — 
1865, 4U. 10(/. ; 1866, 49s. nd.f and in 1867, G4s. bd. A 
rise of 25 per cent., after the average crop of 1866, shows that 
the stocks of old wheat were small, and that a considerable 
rise in price had not been expected. It has olten been asserted 
that the price of wheat would always rule low in time of 
peace, owing to the wide area from which we Aaw our supplies. 
It has even been stated that a complete system of agricultural 
statistics in all the corn-producing countries would prevent any 
other variation in price than that due to the difference of freight. 
But there is a law of variation that applies even to wheat. Its 
production is subject to a variety of disturbing causes, which act 
on markets and affect the price. We propose to inquire into the 
causes of variation. 
The great sources from which our supplies are drawn are 
America, the Black Sea, and the Baltic. France only produces 
a surplus in years of abundance ; she has been a corn-importing 
country for half a century, and occasionally outbids our merchants 
on their own markets. Variation in price is, no doubt, mainly, 
though not entirely, due to the great difference in the yield of 
the crop ; as for example, in the case of our own deficient har- 
vests of 1860, 1861, and 1867, compared with the large wheat- 
crops of 1863, 1864, and 1868. The year 1865, which prO' 
raised so badly during the cold, ungenial spring, gave on the 
whole a full average return ; for, although the light thin soils 
had suffered past recovery, a favourable blossoming time and a 
genial summer scattered over our fields in general an unex- 
pected fruitfulness. 
Although the difference of seasons is beyond our reach, we 
can, to some extent, control the conditions of agricultural pro- 
duction and moderate the evils of scarcity. Extremes are par- 
tially avoided under an improved system of farming. It can 
easily be shown that the variation of yield is least in such 
countries as England, the north of France, and the best-peopled 
parts of the Continent, where an alternate system of husbandry 
* The price of the year does not indicate the actual changes in the market 
barometer; in 1366 a rise of 10s. or 12s. a quarter took place in the last six 
months. 
