238 Ch-owtlb and Devetojpment of the Trade in Frozen Muitoit,. 
from tlie middle of October to tlie year's end, when the value 
of prime New Zealand mutton was once again 4(^., the price of 
the River Plate sorts falling to 3^c^, 
The monthly fluctuations of arrivals of fresh mutton deserve 
to be studied, not only to trace the effect which the rivalry 
between Continental and other supplies has on the frozen meat 
prices, but as a possible guide to our own flockmasters in 
search of any cause of price fluctuation. I therefore indicate the 
monthly course of the past three years' trade by the Table 
printed on page 237. 
These sketches of the course of values and supplies show 
how slight an incident prevents importers realising their hopes. 
They show, too, if read with the tables of price, or if the curves 
in the diagram on page 234 are studied, that there is practically 
no competitive action between the frozen imports and the 
highest qualities of Scotch or English mutton. With all the 
lower grades they undoubtedly compete, and the wide gap be- 
tween the maximum and minimum of prices is rendered wider. 
So far as the trade has develo2:)ed, it has manifested a staying 
power, while its local promoters have shown a persistency, and the 
shippers and inventors an ingenuity, which warn the English 
farmer he must not disregard the chance of its expansion. But 
the history of the trade and of the traders suggests little risk 
of frozen mutton materially affecting the value of high-class 
stock here. The inevitable moral to be drawn is a very old one — 
the essential permanence of the market for good native mutton, 
but the growing risk of lowered prices for any inferior produce. 
After what has happened in the way of cheapening the 
processes of distribution, and reducing the cost and time of 
carriage, it would, of course, be idle to assume that the currents 
of international competition in mutton to be considered in the 
future will be the same as in the past, or that no new changes 
can be looked for. Over the whole world's surface sheep are 
decreasing where men are plentiful, and increasing where they 
are scarce. In the long run some will find the means to adjust 
the supply to the demand. A surplus in one country, or an in- 
creasing deficit in another, may derange any forecast. 
It was said once, I believe, in Australia that perhaps China 
or Japan might welcome an import of frozen sheep, but I am 
unaware of any reliable figures which would throw light on such 
a possibility. 
Looking to the success of the New Zealand flockmasters 
in developing their export trade, I suppose I ought not to over- 
look a somewhat vague proposal to find some foreign outlet 
for their mutton elsewhere than in catering for the wants 
