the  Royal  Commission  on  Agriculture, 
149 
have  expressed  the  most  confident  opinions  that  American  wheat  and 
American  beef  could  and  would  he  sold  in  future  in  this  country  at  prices  at 
which,  according  to  the  evidence  we  have  taken,  English  agriculturists  would  he 
unable  to  produce  English  wheat  and  English  beef  at  a profit  upon  farms  of 
average  quality,  even  supposing  they  were  held  rent-free. 
American  beef,  it  was  said,  would  pay  the  exporter  at  Gd.  a lb.  delivered 
in  England,*  whilst  wheat  would  realise  a profit  at  prices  which  were 
variously  estimated,  ranging  between  42s.  and  44s.  a quarter  as  the  highest, 
and  33s.  and  32s.  as  the  lowest,  price  which  was  named  in  all  the  earlier 
evidence  which  we  have  had  upon  the  subject. 
It  is  impossible  to  doubt  that,  at  prices  such  as  these,  American  competition 
would  exercise  a most  disastrous  influence  upon  the  future  production  of 
wheat  and  beef  as  an  industry  in  England. 
One  witness  stated  this  conviction,  in  which  I concur,  that  at  35 s.  a quarter 
wheat-growing  in  Great  Britain  must  cease  to  be  an  industry  at  all.f 
Nor  does  it  appear  from  any  evidence  before  us  that  there  are  any  sub- 
stitutes to  take  its  place  to  any  appreciable  extent. 
In  reference  to  this  subject,  the  Report  expresses  the  opinion  with  regard 
to  “ market-gardening  ” and  “ dairy-farming,”  that,  while  there  is  room  for 
some  expansion  in  the  milk-trade,  and  while  the  production  of  vegetables  and 
fruit  may,  under  certain  conditions,  be  encouraged  with  advantage,  these 
branches  of  agricultural  industry  are  equally  dependent  upon  their  locality 
and  access  to  a market,  and  it  is  only  to  a limited  extent  and  within  a 
limited  area  that  a trade  in  these  commodities  could  be  conducted  with  a 
profit.  In  that  opinion  I entirely  concur.  No  other  branch  of  agricultuial 
industry  is  suggested  by  the  evidence  as  capable  of  being  profitably  sub- 
stituted for  the  growing  of  wheat  and  the  production  of  beef  in  those 
districts  where  the  soil  is  not  adapted  for  the  production  of  barley  and  of 
sheep ; and  under  these  circumstances  it  would  appear  that  a permanent  com- 
petition with  America  in  respect  to  these  commodities,  at  the  prices  indicated 
by  many  of  the  witnesses  whom  we  have  examined,  would  be  fatally  injurious 
to  the  chief  industry  of  England,  in  some  of  the  largest  and  most  important 
agricultural  districts  of  the  country. 
Whether,  however,  a competition  at  such  prices  is  likely  to  be  permanent  is 
a matter  which  is  open  to  much  question,  and,  after  carefully  weighing  the 
evidence  which  we  have  taken,  I incline  to  an  opposite  opinion  ; otherwise  I 
should  have  felt  it  my  duty  to  submit  a definite  proposition  with  regard  to  it. 
Undoubtedly  for  a time  the  prices  of  home  produce  were  seriously  depressed 
by  American  competition,  and  the  Report  very  justly  and  prominently  refers 
to  it  as  one  of  the  principal  causes  of  agricultural  depression  in  the  past. 
But,  on  the  other  hand,  it  must  be  observed  that  the  prices  which  are  being 
realised  for  English  wheat  and  English  beef  to-day  are  very  different  from 
the  future  standard  of  those  prices  as  indicated  by  the  evidence  which  has 
been  referred  to ; and  it  cannot  be  denied  that  the  opinions  which  were  so 
confidently  expressed  upon  this  subject  are  not  supported  by  the  facts,  as  to 
prices,  at  the  present  time. 
Moreover,  American  competition,  so  far  as  it  affects  the  price  of  English 
products,  instead  of  increasing,  would  appear  to  be  steadily  diminishing,  espe- 
cially with  regard  to  meat  and  some  of  the  more  recent  evidence  (in 
particular  that  of  Mr.  Clay,  our  American  Sub-Commissioner,  specially  charged 
to  obtain  information  on  this  subject)  affords  ground  for  the  belief  that 
this  decrease  in  competition,  especially  in  wheat,  is  likely  to  be  maintained. 
* 21,724-6.  21,744-62.  9,583.  9,619-20. 
t 51,004. 
I 65,018.  65,034.  65,219-20.  63,232-6. 
