64 
The Indian Wlieat Ti-ade. 
There are some wonderful fluctuations in these acreages, 
and in such a country as India, where sowing is often prevented, 
or crops are destroyed, by adverse climatic conditions, great 
changes in area from one season to another must be expected. 
The uniformity in respect of two of the provinces is far more 
suspicious, and must have resulted from very rough estimates 
being adopted in the absence of precise statistics. It may well 
be imagined that in an immense country like India, iiihabited as 
it is, the difficulties of the agricultural statistician . are very great. 
No doubt the officials do their best, and, as they have made great 
improvements of late, we may hope to see Indian statistics made 
satisfactory in course of time. 
The noi-mal yield is supposed by the Department to be about 
33,297,000 qrs. In 1885 the crop was estimated at 37,784,000 
qrs.; in 1886, at 31,800,000 qrs. ; and in 1887, at 29,500,000 
qrs. only. From these figures it appears that, during the past 
two years, the increased exports of wheat from India have been 
taken from short crops, one of the two being over 3| million 
quarters below average. According to the estimate of normal 
area and produce, it may also be pointed out, the average yield 
of the Indian wheat crop is not quite 10*1 bushels an acre. In 
188G, it appears, the exports amounted to 15'3 per cent, of the 
crop, and in 1887 to nearly 19"5 per cent. 
Attempts to estimate the average cost of producing wheat in 
India seem to have been generally regarded as hopeless, and 
this is not surprising, considering the variety of conditions under 
which the crop is produced in so vast a country. In 188-1, the 
Indian Government gave the estimate of an expert " for what it 
was worth," and the calculation made by that gentleman was to 
the effect that, on irrigated and manured land in Northern India, 
in a district traversed by railways, the cost of production was 
12s. an acre, the rate of exchange being then Is. 8d. for the 
rupee. The rupee cost would thus be 7i rupees per quarter. 
On fair land in the North- Western Provinces so treated the yield 
would probably be about two quarters per acre, which makes the 
cost 14|- rupees per acre. The expert referred to further stated 
that a market rate (obviously meaning a local market rate) of 
IBs. 6d. a quarter would probably afibrd to the producer not 
more than 15^'. or lG,s\ — that is, 9 or 9'G rupees. Thus, accord- 
ing to this authority, a Northern cultivator who manures and 
irrigates his land gets a modei'ate profit when wheat sells in a 
local market at 11 rupees a quarter. If he grows two quarters to 
the acre, he gets a profit of 3f to nearly 6 rupees per acre, with the 
local market price as above stated. Whether the cultivator of 
" dry " and unmauured land can produce more cheaply or not it 
is difficult to say. His expenses aromucJi smaller, and his yield 
