Tlie Indian Wlieat Trade. 
71 
not concern him tliat they would be a little cheaper still if his i 
rupees had not depreciated in English value. 
Mr. O'Conor, in one of his reports, contends that, as the 
export of Indian wheat has not uniformly increased during the 
whole period of the fall in exchange, the fall cannot have stimu- 
lated export. This argument, however, is fully met by a passage j 
in the latest official report on "The Moral and Material Progress 
of India," in which the origin and progress of the wheat trade 
is sketched, as follows : — • 
" This trade first rose to importance after the repeal of the export duty j 
(3 annas per maund) in 1873. Famines affected the growth of the trade i 
- ' between that date and 1880, but in 1880-81 the exports rose from less than i 
2j to 7^ million cwts. A yet j^reater rise took place in 1881-82, when a i 
conjunction of circumstances, such as a good harvest in India, bad crops, j 
and a ' cornered ' market in America, gave Indian wheat a good opportu- I 
nity, which it accepted. Extended railways and irrigation, reduced rates by * 
rail as well as freights, economy at the ports, and good seasons since 1880, 
have also naturally contributed much to the development of the trade, and 
have more than made up for the fall in prices in the European markets, 
which has only been partially covered by the fall in exchange." 
Here the failure of exports for the portion of the period | 
under review, during which they did not increase, is fully j 
accounted for, and it is admitted that the fall in prices has been 
partially covered by the fall in exchange, which is all that any 
one claimed in this respect. The average price of wheat in ' 
England in 1872 was 57s. a quarter, and it is now only a little 
over 30.S., so that the fall in exchange does not account for more | 
than a third ' of the difference ; but it has contributed very | 
appreciably to the total saving which enabled shippers to 
increase their exports during the last ten years, when the \ 
Indian wheat crop, as already shown, was much below average, i 
especially that of 1887, which was not harvested when the 
passage just quoted was written. Again, Mr. O'Conor, writing 
in 1886, after two years of low prices, from which there has j 
since been a recovery, says : — 
Prices in Calcutta and Bombay have not increased ; if anything, they 
Lave fallen. The cultivator, therefore, has not received from the exporter 
' About a third, if the effect of the fall in exchange on wheat " free on 
board " be taken, instead of the effect on the bazaar price, as given above. 
Moreover, the proportion of that fall is much greater in relation to the fall in 
price if we compare the figures for later years than 1872 with those of 1888 
For instance, the fall in the English price of wheat since 1875 (and the yearly 
average has only three limes since been higher than it was in that year) is 
about 15.?., and it was not till after 1875 that the rupee fell as low as \s. \0<l. 
It was worth quite 5^(/. more in 1875 than it exchanges for now. Therefore, 
the difference through exchange on wheat bought at IG rupees a quarter would 
be Is. id., and on wheat free on board it would be fully 8s., or more than half 
the fall in price. It will be seen presently that Mr. O'Conor has estimated the 
fall in exchange at two-thirds of the fall in price down to a certain period. 
