The Indian Wheat Trade. 
73 
to increased railway communication and the development of the 
wheat trade, and Mr. Counell gives reasons for doubting whether 
the stimulus to wheat-production in India is not altogether an 
unhealthy one as far as the peasantiy are concerned. I am 
not in a position either to endorse or to dispute Mr. Connell's 
opinion. 
Whether, apart from the margin afforded by the fall in 
the exchange value of the rupee concurrently with the mainte- 
nance of its jjurchasing value in India, the ryot would find it 
worth his while to compete with the American wheat-grower 
-in the export trade to Europe, is a question which cannot be 
answered offliand. Under existing circumstances — apart from 
that of exchange- — I am disposed to believe that he would not ; but 
it is by no means certain, or even probable, that the economy of 
the Indian wheat trade has yet reached its maximum development. 
It is said that freights cannot be further reduced, because shipping 
companies have not paid dividends lately ; but this is ti'ue only 
with a qualification. It is held by good authorities that while 
old ships do not pay their owners, with freights as they are, the 
new and larger vessels pay fairly well. This is especially the 
case with new steamers, which are now built not only so as to 
carry a greatly increased quantity of wheat in proportion to the 
number of the crew in each, but also with improved engines 
which give a much greater power for a given consumption of 
coal than the old engines. Again, India, as compared with 
America, is as yet very poorly served by railways, considerable 
as the increase in the mileage has been. In 1853 there were 
only 20^ miles open for traffic ; by 1872 the length had increased 
to 5,5551 miles, and by the end of 1886 to 12,207^ miles. 
There has since been a further extension, and the Indian 
(lovernment is now about to borrow a large sum of money for 
the construction of new lines. As to the rates, instances of 
great reduction have been given, and in all probability, rather 
than lose their wheat traffic, the companies, including the State, 
which owns some of the Hues and guarantees or assists the rest, 
would grant further reductions. 
Mr. J . E. O'Conor summed up the possibilities and uncertain- 
ties of the Indian wheat trade when he wrote, in the beginning 
of 1885, as follows : — 
" It Las been more than once pointed out in tliese reviews that the trade 
in Indian wheat must be one of a very uncertain and fluctuating- character. 
Its continuance on a very large scale depends on the concurrence of a number 
of circumstances : (1) abundant crops in India ; (2) crops below the average 
in the United States and in Europe; (3) low rates of freight; (4) low rates 
of exchange. When all these exi.^^t together the supplies of Indian wheat 
■which will be put on the consuming markets will astonish— as they haye 
astonisbed— those who are but imperfectly^ acquainted with the capacity of 
