V52 
The TdtdYe of Agriculhiral Competition. 
With respect to tlie futiu-e of competition in wheat pPodilc- 
tion, the foregoing statements lead up to my conclusion i-especting 
it. My argument is that wheat-growing has not been generally 
remunerative in any of the considerable producing countries, 
with the possible exception of India (where the currency ques- 
tion comes in), at such pi-ices as have prevailed in recent years, 
as proved by the fact that production has not kept pace with 
population, but has, as a rule, been stationary or declining, while 
population has been growing rapidly. Hence I conclude that 
prices must range higher, as a rule (of course, with fluctuations),- 
in the future than they have ranged in recent years, in order to 
induce farmers to extend the acreage of wheat. At the same 
time, I am of opinion that a moderate rise in prices will induce 
growers in the chief producing countries, and especially in coun- 
tries outside Europe, to enlarge the wheat area to a sufficient 
extent. For a time at least, it seems probable that an average 
of 40.S. a quarter in England will represent prices elsewhere high 
enough to induce the necessary extension. Whether a lower or 
a higher average will be necessary in the next century will 
depend upon many circumstances, such as the opening up of 
new countries, the improvement of economic production and 
transport, and the rate of increase in the world's population. 
Although I do not entirely agree with the conclusions of 
Mr. C. Wood Davis, an American agriculturist and statistician, 
whose writings have attracted a good deal of attention, it is worth 
while to cite a few of his most important statements in support 
of my argument. Adopting an exaggerated estimate of the 
present wheat area of the world, Mr. Davis puts the increased 
wheat production for the decade ending with 1890 at 62,000,000 
bushels, against which he sets an indefinite but considerable re- 
duction of the rye acreage of Europe. But during the same 
period, he says, the bread-eating populations of European 
blood (including Americans, Colonials, &c.) have inci-eased by 
42,000,000, requiring increments of more than 170,000,000 
bushels of wheat and 100,000,000 bushels of rye per annum. 
So far as the details he gives can be checked, it appears to me 
that he has nob at all exaggerated his case in this retrospective 
portion of it. But when he ventures into the field of prophecy, 
I cannot accept his conclusions. After 1895, he contends, 
America must either import bread-stufis, cease to export cotton, 
or lower the standard of living. Allowing for a diminishing 
rate of increase of population, and a consumption of staples at 
the present estimated rate per head, he brings out a deficiency of 
1,200,000 acres for 1895, increasing to 17,300,000 acres" for 
1900, and to 50,000,000 acres by 190G. 
