The Pnture of AgrtcnUural Competition. 
755 
authorities agree, it will be all that can be ex]3ected if the pro- 
duction of food keeps pace with the rapid growth of population ; 
' and India is the only great producing country outside Europe 
' which appears to me to be able to compete on favourable terms 
with America. Hence it may be concluded that prices will 
require to be considerably higher than they have been in recent 
' years in order to supply Europe with bread for her increasing 
population. As to European countries, it seems probable that 
' they will be able to hold their own against outside sources of 
supply in the production of wheat, but that they will be able to 
do no more, at the most, than keep pace with the European 
1 population, and probably not so much. This means a continuous 
' supply from outside Europe of the large quantity at present 
' required. The resources of the Russian empire are enormous, 
! no doubt ; but the extreme poverty of the people, the grinding 
( system of taxation, the ruinous exactions of money-lenders, 
and the wretchedness of the farming tell against rapid develop- 
ment. 
It is to be borne in mind that an increase of several 
millions of acres in the wheat area of the world is necessary at 
once, in order to allow of production overtaking consumption. 
After that has been accomplished, a yearly increase of some 
millions of acres will be needed, unless the yield per acre is 
greatly increased, to keep pace with the consumption ; and this 
will not happen unless prices are fairly high. A moderate 
rise may stimulate too rapid an increase of wheat-growing for a 
year or two, so that prices may I'all ; but reaction would 
soon set in under such circumstances. Lastly, then, as far as 
this point is concerned, it is my firm conviction that such 
extremely severe competition in wheat-growing as has greatly 
reduced the wheat acreage of this country will not be experienced, 
as a rule, in the future. 
With respect to harleij, it is to be observed that competition 
has not been as severe as it has been in the case of wheat. In 
the ten years ending with 1879, the yearly average ranged from 
34s. to 40s. lid. a quarter, and it was not before 1881 
that it fell below 32s. for a long series of years. Since that year 
the area of the crop in the United Kingdom has been reduced 
by less than 364,000 acres, and our imports have increased by 
barely the produce of those lost acres, or by less than 1,500,000 
quarters. Since 1882 and 1883, indeed, there has been no 
average increase in annual imports. It seems probable, then, 
that the reduction in price has been less owing to foreign 
competition in barley itself than to some other causes, such as 
the great increase in the imports of certain feeding-stuffs, the 
3 D a 
