230 
The Agricultural Returns of 18G6 and 1867. 
argued, to contain nothing but facts, and tlie Board of Trade was 
therefore advised to continue giving only the acreage under the 
several crops, leaving those who are interested in the subject to 
estimate the produce for themselves. The following quotation 
from an article in the ' Daily News ' (March 27th), on Mr. 
Caird's paper, shows, for example, how the rule for estimating 
the total yield of any given harvest is reduced by him to a very 
simple formula : — 
" The agrictiltural Eeti;ms for the year will be published, after a little expe- 
rience has aiade the collection of them more easy, in August or September. 
These returns will give the number of acres laid down in each crop. The rate 
of yield must be ascertained by the public for themselves ; but as ' the great 
bulk of wheat in this country is produced along the eastern and southern sea- 
board, from York to Devon, and the adjoining inland coiintics, extending over 
little more than three degrees of latitude, within which climate and seasons are 
very much alike, a few careful trials will very accurately reveal the yield over 
the whole region.' The truth of tins has been shown by the trials made 
annually in Hertfordshire by Mr. Lawes, which for more than twenty years 
have proved ' a wonderfully accurate test of the general yield of the countrj-.' 
As soon, therefore, as the acreage is known, it has only to be multiplied by the 
jueld, as tested in a few typical localities, and the result of the harvest will be 
obtained almost as soon as it is reaped." 
Mr. Caird, I think, scarcely does himself justice in assuming 
that what long experience, practice, and judgment have enabled 
him to accomplish with so much facility and accuracy in the way 
of estimates and calculations, would come naturally to others 
whose opportunities of collecting and marshalling facts have 
perhaps been comparatively few. Official estimates have at any 
rate this advantage — they are based usually on a far more exten- 
sive series of facts than would be available for use by any private 
individual, and they are free from any possible suspicion that 
they have been framed to support any particular interest. And 
as regards estimates of produce, I cannot but regard them as 
most essential if the farmers or the public at large are to reap the 
full benefit derivable from agricultural returns. A farmer in 
Devon or Cornwall may know very well the average yield of the 
wheat crops in his district, and knowing also the acreage under 
wheat, he can calculate the quantity locally produced ; but will 
that satisfy him ? May he not desire also to know the yield in 
the Northern or Midland counties, and in fact to get, as correctly 
as possible, at the aggregate produce of the whole country, so as 
to be able to reckon upon the consequent probabilities of the corn 
market, particularly if he is in doubt as to whether he ought to sell 
or keep back his own wheat? I cannot avoid the conclusion that 
in these days of rapid communication the estimated aggregate 
produce is of more importance to growers than the estimated 
produce of particular districts ; and as the former can only be 
properly ascertained by collation of estimates made for each 
district, it is difficult to understand how it could be arrived at 
