July t, 18^7.] I'HE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. 
cheaply bought, were not disposed to meet the situation, 
but held out for their prices with more than usual 
tenacity. The Indian and Oeylon importers, on the 
other hand, followed their customary policy of selling 
rapidly on arrival, whereby early in the season a scale 
of price was established for all, but the finest descrip- 
tions much below the usual currencies, and sufficiently 
low to attract universal attention from the home trade 
— and even from exporters, who had hitherto been un- 
able to push Indian tea in other markets on account of 
its price— with the result that an unprecedented in- 
crease in consumption followed at the expense of China 
tea. The change in the relative positions of the com- 
petitors for the favour of the trade is best illustrated by 
the following figures, showing the home consumption 
for the six months October- March during the past six 
years : — Percentage of 
Indian China 
Home Indian and Ohina and and and 
Consumption. Ceylon. Java. Oeylon. Java. 
Oct.— Mar. lb. lb. 
18S6-7 43,500,000 48,500,000 47 53 
1885-6 34,500,000 55,000,000 38| 61*- 
1884-5 36,500,000 59,000,000 38 62 
1883-4 30,500,000 57,000,000 34f 65J 
1882-3 29,500,000 59,000,000 33 >- 66 J 
1881-2 23,000,000 59,000,000 28~ 72 
The natural result of this marked advance in the 
consumption of Indian and decline in that of China 
has been to effe:t a gradual readjustment of their 
respective values, Indian having risen while China 
has fallen ; but the movement in either direction has 
been slow, and not, yet sufficient to turn the scale 
in favour of China, as the percentage of Indian and 
Oeylon delivered during March reached the highest 
point yet attained. The reasons are that the retailers 
have become impressed with the superior value of 
Indian tea, and importers have continued to realise 
freely, notwithstanding the probability of higher prices 
resulting from depletion of stocks in the summer 
whereas the China merchants have been slow to 
face the position, and have not forced the market. 
Importers have now to consider what action to 
take during the coming season, in view of a possible 
supply of 85,000,000 lb. from India and 15,000,000 
lb. from Ceylon. Allowing for 5,000,000 lb. from 
Java, the total required from China, to meet a total 
requirement of 225,000,0001b., will be 120,000,0001b,. 
and what this shrinkage of the Ohina trade implies 
will be seen from the following figures showing the 
import from Ohina during the past six months: — 
Total China, Impobt. Lb. 
Season 1886-7 140,000,000 
,. 1885-6 143,000,000 
„ 1884-5 139,250,000 
„ 1883-4 148,750,000 
„ 1882-« 146,000,000 
„ 1881-2 159,500,000 
The questions which follow, and which will ultim- 
ately decide the matter, are— (1) Can Indian and 
Oeylon tea be produced to sell at the prices of the 
past season, or at even lowar rates? (2) Oan China 
tea bo shipped at such a low cost as will enable it 
to recover its position, leaving comparisons of 
quality and relative value out of view ? From all 
we can learn, there is still a fair profit upon the 
growth of Indian tea, even at present prices, and it 
will probably require many seasons less profitable 
than this one to restrict production. For some 
years past planters have been preparing for a crisis, 
ami in the interval have found means forreducing ex- 
penditure in many ways, until it is now found practic- 
able to lay down crops in London at a cost which was 
deemed to be impossible a few years ago. In many 
cases this has been effected by a system of cultivation 
which enables from 6001b. to 800 1b. of tea to be 
harvested from each acre of plant, and although 
the :\ n. in give-; a crop not worth more than !>.',d 
Or 103 per lb. on the present basis of price, the cost 
Ming thereby reduced to 8d per lb., or less, it is clear 
that the point has not yet boen roached which will 
obeOK proAndtiokl. The* alternative method pui-siiod 
by planter* whose ebtates are favourably situated with 
Kgftjtd to M.il.elimate, and pluut-of makings smaller 
quantity of much fiuer tea — has been so flue.ccss'ul 
owing to the good prices still commanded by fine 
Indian tea, that some reaction in the direction of 
smaller crops and higher quality may be seen, but 
the risk attaching to such a policy will deter the 
majority from pursu.ng it. Few results of th« past 
season's working have yet been published — and it is 
unnecessary to anticipate them—but it is pre-ty well 
known that those estates, which represent the oystom 
of making fine tea, such as the Jorehaut, Jhanzie, 
Borokai, Luckimpore, Scottish Assam, Tiphook, and 
many Darjeeling gardens, also some of those who 
adopt the opposite policy of making very heavy crops, 
have had a profitable year. The result of this will 
be to attract fresh capital to the iudustry, and to 
stimulate the energy of growers rather than to check 
it. Ceylon tea is another important factor of the future, 
for its merits have gained it so much favour from 
the trade, that, notwithstanding the supply has 
doubled, its average value for the season holds 
at about Is. 2d. per lb., a price which leaves a 
considerable margin of profit, the cost of pro- 
duction being even less than that of Indian. China 
has, therefore, to face the certainty of increased 
supplies from Oeylon and India, and the prob- 
ability of growers being able to hold their ground 
with still lower prices — for the means of reducing 
cost have not yet been exhausted. Those who 
know the Chinaman expect that they will not 
retire from the contest without making a great 
effort to recover their trade ; and their anxiety to 
keep it has been proved by their consigning tea 
on their own account to the States and London 
through the Commission houses when buyers in 
China refuse to operate. Their experience, how- 
ever, of this sort of business has not been 
encouraging, and they are probably astute enough 
to see that it will pay them better to reduce 
and regulate supplies instead of glutting the 
foreign markets. And when it is considered what an 
insignificant fraction of the total trade in Ohina the 
quantity exported forms, 20,000,000 or 30,000,000 lb. 
more er less of foreign trade is not a great matter after 
all. Two courses seem open to them — the one, to find 
means of lowering their prices to the point at which 
they can sell Congou at 4d or 4§d per pound) which, so 
far, has not been practicable) ; the other, to improve 
the make and quality of their tea, and bring smaller 
supplies to the ports. There is no doubt that the aver- 
age British consumer still appreciates good China tea, 
and that the trade would pay a fair price for it ; but 
for a long series of years the character of Ohiua tea 
has been steadily deteriorating, until the bulk of the 
crop is now so far inferior to Indian and Ceylon that 
when prices come to about the same level, there is no 
question as to which the trade will give the preference. 
There is a third alternative — viz., such a growth of 
consumption as would enable us to absorb the in- 
creased orops while taking the same quantity of China 
as hitherto ; but the figures of the past six years hardly 
justify such a hope. They are as follows: — 
Home consumption United Kingdom, 
1886-7 (about) lSS^OO.OnO 
„ „ „ 1885-6 160,000,000 
„ „ 1884-5 *202,500,()00 
„ „ 1883-4 171.000,000 
„ „ „ 1882-3 170,000,000 
„ „ „ 1881-2 159,-'00,000 
Allowing for growth of population, consumption 
seems to be increasing very slowly, but we believe that 
Mr. Goschen's opinion that this is not reallj tl < ease is 
correct, and that the explanation is as he stated, that 
the 82,000,001) or 83,000,000 lb of Indian and Oeylon lea 
now consumed being stronger aud therefore more 
economical, represent a much greater weight of Chin i 
tea such as formed the bulk of the deliveries prior to 1881 . 
Notwithstanding that consumption makes only 
slow forward movement, the position of tea, from 
a market point of view, is much sounder than .t 
was a few years ago; the speculative element hu 
almost disappeared ; the custom of " hand to mouth ' 
• Owing to lo usy elearancrs when au increase in the 
duty w«< feared. 
