494 
THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. [January a, 1888 
trade showing enormous decreases in imports and ex- 
ports as compared with so long a period as fifteen 
years ago, whilst concurrently there has been a com- 
plete stagnation in home con<jumption. As a matter 
of fact, when the increase of population is taken 
into consideration, the consumption per head of 
Coffee will be seen to have fallen from 0'98 
lb., in 1872 to 086 lb. last year, and this, 
in face of a long-sustained stirring impetus given 
by advocates of temperance to the working classes, 
towards substituting such a beverage as Ooffee 
(amoDgst others) for alcoholic drink. On turning to 
the figures of other countries, it will be found that 
the Ooffee trade of the United Kingdom forms a very 
small part of the Ooffee trade of the world, and, 
moreover, that whilst the consumption in England has 
declined so perceptibly, Ooffee drinkiDg in most Con- 
tinental countries and in America has increased ma- 
terially. Our home supplies and home demand have 
really very little to do with the marked fluctuations 
that have been going on, but could any record be 
obtained of the large transactions that have taken 
place in England, in Coffee which either has no exis- 
tence anywhere, or is lying in one or other of the 
American or Continental ports, some light could no 
doubt be thrown upon the subject, as the tendency 
to speculate in Coffee has surprisingly developed dur- 
ing the last year or two. The Yankees have probably 
gambled in it to a much greater extent than other 
people, but for a long time past the Ooffee exchange 
at Havre has been forced into much greater 
relative prominence by speculative transactions, 
carried on by all sorts and conditions of foreigners 
and Englishmen than has ever before been ths case, 
whilst concurrently in America, transactions on a 
gigantic scale have also from time to time been re- 
ported. The special Coffee exchanges existing at New 
York, and at Havre and other Continental markets, 
virtually rule prices, both there and elsewhere, with- 
out much reference to the existing state of supply 
or demand, or of stocks at any one particular port, 
so that the chance statistical position of any single 
market, such as that of London, has not now, and 
has not had for a very considerable period, any ma- 
terial influence on London prices. Holland has of late 
gradually ceded to Havre the position of first import- 
ance as a Coffee centre ; but this, it will be seen, is 
due, not to the fact that the French have of late be- 
come larger Coffee consumers than the Dutch, but 
because more speculative transactions have been pass- 
ing through the French exchange of late years. The 
Havre and New York Coffee exchanges were only es- 
tablished in 1882, whilst the special Coffee exchange 
at Hamburg has only commenced business during the 
present year. 
The popular adulterant to sell as a mixture with 
coffee is still Chicory, and there cannot be the smallest 
doubt that its use has been more largely resorted to 
for the purpose of producing a low-priced s so-called 
" Coffee " during the last year or two (since Ooffee 
became so dear) than was ever before the case. On 
the other hand, it is argued that the class for whom 
these mixtures are prepared would probably have 
ceased to buy Ooffee in any shape, unless mixed with 
the cheaper Chicory, and so brought, as a mixture, 
within their reach ; thus to say, as is often said, that 
Chicory has probably prevented an increased consump- 
tion of pure Coffee, may be far from correct. If these 
mixtures had been sold at the average of the price of 
the two component parts, there might be something in 
this argument, but the admixture is, of course, made 
not only to lower price and meet the demand for cheap 
Ooffee, but also in order that a higher profit may be 
obtained ; indeed, 75 per cent, of Chicory is often, we 
are told, mixed with Coffee " mixtures." 
The following tables show the relative rates of con- 
sumption of Ooffee and Chicory during the last ten 
ye nrs : — 
Consumption of Coffee and Chicory in the United 
Kingdom during the ten years 1177-1886. 
1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 
Tons Tons Tons Tons Tons 
C»ffe« H,m 14,908 15,489 14,510 14,200 
Chicory — 
Home Grown 
4,974 
202 
4,786 
182 
5,300 
178 
5,716 
113 
5,699 
147 
Total, Chicory 
5,176 
4,968 
5,478 
5,829 
5,816 
Total, Coffee anrl 
19,832 
19,876 
20,967 
20,369 
20,106 
Coffee 
1882 
Tons 
14,269 
1883 
Tons 
14,486 
1884 
Tons 
14,739 
1885 
Tons 
14,915 
18S6 
Tods 
14,460 
Chicory — 
Home Grown 
5,001 
143 
5,116 
141 
4,900 
131 
4,964 
194 
4.890 
193 
Total, Chicory 
5,144 
5,237 
5,031 
5,158 
5,083 
Total, Coffee and 
19,413 
19,773 
19,770 
20,073 
19,54g 
Consumption of Coffee and Chicory per head of the 
Population of the United Kingdom in the ten 
years 1877-1886. 
1877 
1878 
1879 
1886 
1881 
lb. 
lb. 
_ll>. 
lb. 
lb, 
•96 
•97 
100 
•94 
•89 
.... "34 
•32 
•33 
•37 
•37 
Total 
.... 1-30 
1-29 
1-33 
1-31 
1*81 
1882 
1883 
1884 
1885 
1886 
lb, 
lb. 
lb. 
lb. 
lb. 
•88 
•89 
•90 
•90 
•86 
•33 
•32 
•32 
•32 
1-22 
1-22 
1-22 
1-18 
The decline in values which has taken place during 
the last month seems to have come as a surprise to 
nearly all engaged in the trade here, and there is of 
course a division of opinion as to the probable future 
of prices. There are still many who think that rates 
must again take an upward turn, and that they 
will touch a much higher range than has been 
reached at any period of this year. In order, how- 
ever, to justify an advancing market, stocks must 
either be decreasing, or there must be an absolute 
certainty that in the near future this will happen. 
At the present time the stock in Europe and Brazil 
is in excess, but in the United States it is about 
4,000 tous less than last year, although in America 
more than two months' supply is rarely held. In 
Borne measure to show the uncertainty of all fore- 
casts of prices in relation to existing stocks in vari- 
ous ports, it may be mentioned that on October 3lst 
last the stock in the United States was in relation 
to her deliveries, sufficient to last barely two months, 
and in the Continental markets as follows : — Holland, 
eight months ; Antwerp, two to three months ; Ham- 
burg, three to four months ; Havre, five months ; 
Trieste, two to three months ; and London, five months. 
As a matter of fact, the European deliveries during 
the first ten months of this year show a falling-off 
compared with the previous year equal to 16J per 
cent., and in the United States, where adulteration 
has a freer course even than here, the decrease has 
doubtless been considerable. As between November 
and March the European stocks are usually the lightest, 
it may be well to inquire what will be the probable 
position on March 1st, for by that date the 1887 crops 
from most of the producing countries (Brazil alone 
excepted ) will be rapidly arriving, and it is expected 
that many of these will turn out above the average. 
It will probably be difficult long before that period to 
maintain a high range of prices, especially as the 
coming Brazil crop bids fair to be a very large one. 
Looking first then at consumption, to arrive at any fair 
estimate of what will be taken from the principal 
European ports during the next four months, it will 
probably be overstating the case if an amount is de- 
ducted from the total deliveries of that period in the 
previous year, in the same proportion as the falling-off 
has been this year, namely 16J per cent. But with 
prices still 50 per cent higher than they were at this 
time last year, it is certain that the reduction will be 
much greater. Upon a falling-off, however, of only 
16^ per cent in general consumption, there will be re- 
quired during the next four mouths 104,830 tons, 
