April 2, 1888.J THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. 
673 
Jo the Editor. 
CINCHONA BARK: 
THE JAVA AND CEYLON SUPPLIES OF 
CINCHONA BARK. 
5, Savago Gardens, Trinity Square 
London, 10th Fobruary 1888. 
Sir, — In your issue of 11th January of the over- 
land edition just received here, you have a paragraph 
on some figures taken from " an apparently reliable 
report" tending to show that Java may be able in 
1889-00 to send enormous quantities of bark of 
phenomenal richness. The figures referred to are not 
given in the overland edition, and I necessarily 
write in ignoranco of them and of any further re- 
marks by which you may have sought in a later 
issue to allay the apprehension which would arise in 
the minds of Ceylon cinchona owners on reading 
such figures in your paper. Planters are so accus- 
tomed to look to you for guidance in difficulties 
that I hope to be allowed to assist you in showing 
how little ground there is, in the present state of 
the bark market and prices, for any exaggerated fear 
of what Java may send. Your estimate of 200 acres 
an estato for the 60 cinchona estates in Java will 
be felt to be, as you say, liberal by all those who 
know what expense and trouble are incurred during 
the eight years of waiting which have to be gone 
through by those who wish to bring a bark estate to 
a successful yearly cropping. Your estimate of 
12,000 acres will, therefore, be a fairly safe basi3 for 
calculations. I shall endeavour to show that it is 
impossible for 12,000 acres of cinchona to bear 
anything like IS to 25 millions of full-grown trees ; 
that even if ths trees could exist, they could not 
possibly be expected to give 3 lb, of bark per tree 
at eight or nine years old, and that a richness of 
three to four times that of the average Ceylon bark 
is one impossible to obtain in cultivation although 
it may be reached in the nurseries or under specially 
selected circumstances. 12,000 acres planted (1 by 6 
would give a total of about 14J millions of trees being 
about 1,200 trees to the acre. 12,000 acres planted 1 by 
4 would give a total of about 83 millions of troes being 
about 2,700 trees to the acre. The calculation of 
15 to 25 millions will probably have been based on 
some combination of the recognized 6 by (5 or 1 by 4 
original planting. 
Now I will pimply appeal to the experience of 
any cinchona planter, whether it be possiblo for 
1,200 cinchonas to grow to tho ago of oight or nino 
years on ono acre ? And whether if they managed 
to exist they could give anything liko 3 lb. a treo? 
It is simply impossible, for 6 by 6 means that 
from the extrcmo end of the branches on one Bide 
of a troo to tho extreme end of tho branches on 
the other side of the sumo tree, that treo has only 
(i feot in which to grow ! If Juvu can get one acre 
to carry 500 cinchonas of 8 or 9 years old, she 
doos better than others do, and if such trees give 
3 lb. per tree, she is very lucky. 
Now, if you tako 12,000 acres at 500 trocs per 
acre, you have, for the whole of Java, (i, 000,000 treos, 
and if you take tho trees at 3 lb. of bark each at 8 
or '.) years old, you would have 18 millions of lb. 
of bark roady to bo taken in 1889-90 if nil tit,- 
ettatet reached that age In that sane year if ;in 
and if i/'tu wert going to ixHYminate the (nimtry. 
Homo estates uud some portions of OBt&tes will 
huvo reached that age and the troes will have boon 
cut down or uprooted boforo lBM'.i /for Axperienoe 
dhow* that bnrk will not roucw iu Juvu) ttud from 
those 18 millions of lb. of bark must be deducted 
the bark from mature trees out down before 188'J. 
Luring tho 5 years 1st July 1882 to 30th June 1887, 
Java has shipped 6,482,603 lb. of bark, and her 
1887-88 shipments are so far at the rate of over 
three millions for tho whole year, and much of 
these barks must have been taken from trees that 
had reached tho age of 8 or 'J years and have been 
cut down. 
The remainder of the 18 millions will constitute 
their capital account, and will be all the bark 
they can count on until they shall plant fresh 
acres beyond the 12,000. It would be as unreason- 
able now to expect that Java could tako 18 
millions of lb. of bark in 1889-90 as it would have 
been unreasonable in 1884-85 to expect Ceylon to 
send in 1880-87 the 00 millions of lb. whioh consti- 
tute the total of her shipments during the 10 years 
from 1st October 1877 to 30th Sept. 1887. As 
the 18 million lb. in Java in 1889-90 (less bark off 
mature trees sent away before that date) will 
constitute the capital account of Java, fresh 
acreage of cniohona must be added before Java 
can afford to send in one year more than some 
3 millions or at the outside 4 millions of lb. of 
bark without trenching on the supply for later 
years. 
Ceylon with her 40,000 aores of cinchona (wri- 
ting from memory I believe this to be the Observer 
estimate of Ceylon cinchona) has given during 10 
years 66 millions of lb. of bark, and yet in no 
one year has she had a crop of even 14 or 15 
millions. Her shipments of 15,304,913 lb. in 1885- 
80, and of 14,389,184 lb. in 1880-87 were made up by 
trenching on orops belonging to later years, 
as the present partial exhaustion of supply shows. 
To what extent this depletion of capital account 
in Ceylon has reached can only be fully known 
when she shall have settled down to a small 
regular yearly crop. Now, if Java with her 12,000 
acres exceed some 3 or at most 4 millions of lb. 
of bark shipments in one year the same process 
of extinction of capital must be gone through. 
With regard to the proportion of quinine yield 
which Java bark may be expected te bear to that 
of Ceylon, it is more difficult to give figures. 
Hitherto Java bark has averaged about 50 per cent 
above that of Ceylon, and this figure seems far more 
likely to approximate to the proportion of the future 
than tho 3 or 1 times which are sometimes quoted. 
It is a woll-known and much regretted fact 
among cinchona growers that yields of 8 or 10 
por cent obtained from small lots of selected and 
specially-cared-for trees are no sort of guide to 
what may be oxpectod from the same description 
when planted out in quantity. Large yields arc 
not to bo expected from treos grown in great numbers. 
Until fresh ovidenco of tho yiold of largo quantities 
shall be obtainable, it will be safe to estimate 
Java bark as 50 per cent richer than that of Ceylon, 
so that 2 lb. of Java bark may be called equal 
to 3 lb. of Ceylon. 
It would doubtless suit Java planters very well 
if Ceylon cinchona owners should tako fright at 
suppositious large quantities of bark to be expected 
from Javu iu Ihh'J.'JO, und should commit the happy 
disputeh by shipping now what bark they haw 
uiul selling it for tho mere nothing which they 
would get for it, for then Java would, in o year 
or two, huvo the praoticul monopoly of a rising 
markot. It would be us unwise for Ceylon now to 
ship large quuntities of bark and drive the unit 
down to u mere nothing, as they would most 
surely drive it if they were in the present Btato 
of the innrkot to ship largo quantities ; as it would 
be unwise for Ceylon now to plant on fcwige 
J soil their comparatively poor barks to coui- 
