August z, 1888.] THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. 
57 
mate as exactly as can be done With the Java bark 
the average percentage of quinine in India and 
Ceylon cinchona ; but taking the standard at 2rf per 
oent., and tbat of Java bark (which has now passed 
the 4 per cent, average) at 3 per cent, only, the 
sum then works out as follows : — 
lb. 
Exports from British India, season 1836-87 1,286,900 
Do. Oeylon do. 14,389,184 
15,676,084 
at 2J- per cent, gives 352,712 lb quinine sulphate. 
Add to this, say, 2,200,000 lb averaging 3 per 
oent. or 66,000 lb quinine sulphate, for the Java 
shipments during the same season, we obtain for 
the last season a total yield from the principal 
cinchona districts of the Eastern hemisphere of 
close upon 6,700,000 oz. of quinine, worth, roughly 
speaking, £450,000 at a very low estimate. Thus, 
apart from the fact that it is quite unfeasable, 
as has been shown by exeperience, to obtain 
thoroughly harmonious action on the part of the 
quinine-makers, it is obvious that a syndicate, to 
etlioiently control the market for any considerable 
period, must be a very powerful backed one in- 
deed. Neither must it be forgotten that the abortive 
boom which occurred at the end of last year was 
not due to any inherent soundness in the position 
of the quinine market, but simply to a wave of 
speculation which, beginning with certain metals, 
swept over all low priced articles. As to the 
question whether it pays the growers to ship bark, 
and the manufacturers to make quiaine at the 
ourrent rates, it must be borne in mind that the 
growers are not free agents, but, having planted 
their trees and sunk their capital, must ship the 
bark at any price which repays harvesting, and 
that there is no conclusive evidence that even at a 
unit of l£d. harvesting is quite unremunerative. The 
manufacturers, no doubt, will always be sufficiently 
eager to secure business to continue making quinine 
at any figure leaving the barest margin of profit, 
and as it has not been proved that when quinine 
sold at Is 3Jd to Is Id per oz. the manufacturers 
stopped working or even refused new orders at 
those prices, we may take it that even these 
figures do not yet represent the irreducible mini- 
mum, though they may not be far removed from 
it. Another penny added probably represents a fair- 
level for German bulk quinine, and at the same 
time the axis round which, barring exceptional 
circumstances, this variety is most likely to revolve 
during the coming summer. War would send up 
the price, no doubt, but as the year advances, the 
prospects of peace increase. Speculation on a large 
scale would probably have the same effect, but all 
the premises for a successful speculative movement 
appear to be absent. The probabilities, therefore, 
seem in favour of a maintenance of the status 
quo at the beat, with a possibility of a further 
decline. 
As regards the smallness of the imports of quinine 
into the United States, as compared with the cor- 
responding period of tho year before, no doubt a 
serious deficiency may bo admitted to exist, and 
it is also quite likely that the smaller dealers all 
over the States, who once hel l an immense aggre- 
gate block, are now almost cleared out. If, there- 
fore, America should buy in Europe to the extent 
of soveral hundred thousand ounces to cover the 
deficiency in her imports, some improvement may 
set in, and this, in fact, seems to be the only 
real point in favour of a "bull" view. Bui here, 
again, un unknown factor cntors into calculation, 
viz., the quantity of quiuino made by the American 
makers themselves. Besides, it does not seem 
likely, whatever speculator.; at headquarters will 
do, that the smaller American druggists will stock 
once more heavily of an article which has been 
such a treacherous friend in the past. More- 
over, there is no reason to believe that the 
consumption of quinine in America is increasing 
with any exceptional rapidity, while it is pretty 
certain that it does not increase at a more 
rapid rate than does that of the new febrifuges, 
antipyrin, antifebrin, acetanalid, and others, which, 
according to reliable reports, are becoming as 
fashionable in the States as they are in many parts 
of Europe, especially in Germany, where, even 
two years ago, the consumption of antipyrin was 
estimated at no less than 25 per cent of that of 
quinine. Finally, there is the argument of the 
reduction in the Ceylon bark shipments. Taking, 
for the purpose of better comparison, the exports 
from Ceylon, not from October 1st, when the 
season commences, and which is the date from 
which they are usually reckoned, but for the nine 
months between July 1st, 1887, and March 31st, 
1888, we find the official figures during ihat period 
are 8,382,668 lb., against 10,525,551 lb. between July 
1st, 1886, and March 31st, 1887, a defioieno/, during 
the latter part of the two periods, of 2,142,883 lb. 
But during the same periods the total shipments from 
Java were: 1887-8, 2,693,088 half-kilos; 1886-7, 
1,736,353 half-kilos, an increase of 956,735 half-kilos, 
or over 1,000,000 lb., which, considering the far 
higher average alkaloidal standard of Java bark, 
practically almost wipes out the deficiency in the 
Ceylon shipments. And there is every reason to 
believe, as we have frequently pointed out, that 
during the next few years any diminution in the 
supplies from Ceylon, which are now generally 
expected to continue their dwindling course, will 
be fully balanced by the increasing shipments 
from Java, where fresh plantations are constantly 
laid out, and where the richest cinchonas are 
still unharvested. The exports from Indian and 
from the South American plantations are also 
growing, and experiments at cinchona culture are 
being made is so many countries that it is quite 
inconceivable that any demand likely to arise should 
not promptly be met. Indeed, the argument* 
against any lasting improvement in the value of 
quinine are so crushing that it is hard to account 
for the confidence with which the alkaloid is still 
regarded by many — a fascination almost unequalled 
since the days of the Loreley and of the veiled 
prophet Mokanna. — Chemist and Druggist, June 9th. 
INSECTICIDES. 
While wishing every success to the efforts of Mr. 
Cotes to introduce insecticides like arsenic, kerosine, 
and pyrethrum into India, for the protection of its 
crops and fruits, we have some misgiving as to the 
possibility of what he proposes. The difficulty of 
introducing improved machinery for agricultural 
purposes in India is notorious, and although it is 
probable of course that the cultivator would 
apprehend, more quickly than the benefit of improved 
machinery, the possibility of saving his crops from 
the ravages of the insect tribo, we fear he is not 
likely to tako to applying insecticides, of which 
neither he nor his fathers have had any knowledge. 
In many parts of the country our agricu.Uiral 
departments have induced the ryot to use the 
Bchea sugar-mill, but to get him to sprinkle hi9 
fields with arsenical solutiou by means of an aqua- 
pult pump with cyclone nozzles will prove a good 
doal more difficult. The subject, however, is of as 
much importance here as in America, where the 
farmer resorts readily to the arsenical and otlu r 
remedies Mr. Cotes mentions. Tho fact wurrautd 
Air, Cotes . attempt lo make the rjQta und.ors.taud 
