TH£ TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. [November i, 1888. 
The largest shipment in any one month so far from 
Ceylon — as may be seen from the tables we append 
—was 2,588,000 lb. in June 1888. It is clear that 
the busy shipping season from Ceylon (as from 
India generally) will lie between April and October, 
though there will always be an appreciable quantity 
(perhaps 33 per cent) of shipments distributed over 
the other six months. 
As regards the future, Mr. Eutherford's estimate 
of Tea Exports for season 1888-89, as given in our 
"Handbook and Directory " page 46, is as follows :— 
" 1st Oct. to GOth Sept. 1888, 1889. 
acres. lb. lb. 
Tea 5 years old and 
upwards ... 30,000 at 340=10,200,000 
4 to 5 years ... 39,000 300 11,700,000 
3 to 4 „ ... 48,000 200 9,600,000 
2 to 3 „ ... 38,000 80 3,040.000 
Not in bearing ... 24,000 
Do. seed ... 3,000 
182,000 = 34,540,000 
Local consumption say 540,000 
Probable exp«rt=34,000,000 " 
Considering that the tea short-shipped during the 
past season will tend to swell the current year's 
return, this estimate might be thought perfectly 
safe. But for the reasons given in a full dis- 
cussion in our " Handbook " (to which we may 
refer at pages 45-47), we are inclined to take a 
lower figure. In this we are supported by an Estate 
Inspector of experience who writes : — 
Tjsi.— I see I am 4,000,000 lb. below Mr. Rutherford. 
I certainly do not like to question his figures, but 
I am sure he is now putting too much (350 lb.) 
on the 5 years old tea and upwards, for much 
of the tea in old coft'ee land is not coming up to 
200 lb. per acre. I thus put my figures : — 
Above 5 . . 30,000 acres @ 300 lb. =. 9,000,000 
4—5 . . 39,000 „ @ 250 „ = 9,750,000 
3-4 .. 48,000 „ @ 180 „ = 8,640,000 
2—3 .. 38,000 „ @ 80 „ == 3,040,000 
30.430,000 
or say 30,500,000 lb. 
Of course much depends on the weather. The 
drought of 1887-88 has been trying on the low- 
country estates, but if we have a wet season in 
1883-89, that will put down the high estates' 
average. Within the last year more of the high 
old coffee land put in tea is included in the bear- 
ing area than of lowcountry tea in virgin forest 
or chena, and so the arithmetical progressive 
arrangement of Mr. Rutherford is, in my humble 
opinion, at fault. 
Our own estimate for season 1888-89— so far as 
we can judge at present — is 32,000,000 lb. ; but 
this may be modified by the information we expect 
to collect before the end of October. 
Cinchona Bark. 
Shipments of bark have kept up again much 
beyond expectation. Our estimate a year ago, 
however, of 11 million lb. was as wonder- 
fully near the mark (11,704,932 lb.) as our 
estimate of 14 million lb., made in October 1886, 
came to the actual export for season 1886-7, 
namely 14,389,184 lb. Unfortunately the clamour 
was so great in planting circles about our over- 
estimating, that about the end of 1887 we reduced 
our estimate to ten million lb. Again, we are 
assured on all sides of the rapid disappearance of 
cinchona trees from many estates and even 
districts, and certainly our stock is much 
less than it was a year ago in actual available 
bark on trees. Still, we can see no good reason 
for putting our estimate for the actual shipments of 
cinohona bark during 1888-9 at less than 9,000,000 lb. 
On this point our planting critic writes 
Cinchona. — I think your 9,000,000 lb. are correct. 
There is a good deal of this product lying in snug 
corners, and there is no use keeping only 2 per cent 
bark to compete with the over 4 per cent 
Java bark which is now beginning to come forward. 
Coffee. 
Poor old coffee is going rapidly to the wall : only 
136,295 cwt. shipped for last j season. The distinc- 
tion of "native " coffee may as well be dropped now, 
with only 6,442 cwt. or about 5 per cent to come 
under this head in the past twelve months. We 
suppose there is less still to be so classified in 
the coming season, and therefore, as we say, the 
distinction might well be abandoned. We much 
fear the total of coffes for 1888-9 will not reach 
100,000 cwt., and yet we hear of some good 
crops in unexpected quarters ; but on the whole 
we suspect our planting friend draws a true 
picture : — 
Coffee. — Some people doubt the 50,000 cwt. being 
secured, but the old staple dies hard, so I say 
80,000 cwt. Arabian and Liberian coffee. 
We shall be better able to judge a month hence 
from our district returns. 
" Cocoa " from the Cacao Tree 
is again a grievous disappointment as regards total 
results, and it will be impossible to say that this 
product is a success over any appreciable area of 
cultivation in Ceylon unless our shipments speedily 
improve ; but instead of that our information at 
present would seem to show that our export for 
season 1888-9 cannot be expected to exceed that of 
1886-7 or at most 18,000 cwt. Here is an uncountry 
opinion, still more adverse : — 
Cacao figures are disappointing also. We end 
this season with barely 13,000 cwt., carrying us 
back to 1886-87 export. Well, we have had terribly 
dry weather to date, so it will take some time to re- 
cover the effect of this 18 months' drought ; so I really 
don't see how we can export more than 15,000 cwt. 
during 1888-89, though there are believers in 
an estimate of 17,000 cwt. I fear Kurunegala will 
not help us much, and Matale has been frizzling 
on the same gridiron as Dumbara. 
Cardamoms 
have done fairly well with an export of 3i0,685 lb., 
but we suppose we cannot look for quite so much 
during the coming season with planting attention so 
largely given to tea. Our correspondent remarks : — 
Cardamoms.— So much of the land under this 
product is being rooted out for tea, and so little 
fresh land planted, that I fear my estimate is correct, 
—250,000 lb. against, say, 310,000 lb. in 1887-88. 
We now append some tables given in our Hand- 
book and partly made up to date from the monthly 
Customs Accounts as far as time will permit : — 
"It is of special interest to observe what are 
the busy and slack months in our tea shipping 
business at Colombo. It is impossible here to 
have, even for a month, an entiiely close or holi- 
day lime as in China, Japan and India. January 
and February are the slackest month", and yet 
over 5 per cent of the total crop is shipped in each 
of these months, respectively. Indeed, if we take 
the quarters, the tea business here is found to 
be wondei fully spread over the year, thus: — 1st 
quarter lS - 03 per cent; 2nd quarter 31'14; 3rd 
quarter 26 '70 ; 4th quarter 24'11. The six mouths 
from April to September inclusive, give nearly 58 
against 42 per cent during October-March. But a 
better way to get at the busier period is to count 
from May. Thus May- June- July give 34 - 32 per 
cent of the year's exports, while if we add in 
Augu.st we get 43'13 per cent. The four months, 
May to August, may, therefore, be considered the 
busiest in (Jeylou ; due of course to the south-west 
