April z, 1882.] 
THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. 
879 
taking production. As regards this point Messrs. W. 
Schoffer & Co. give some interesting figures, which they 
consider establish the fact that the world's consumption 
has increased at the uniform rato of 10 per cent, in every 
five years. In 187'2 they reckoned tho total consump- 
tion at 450,000 tons, today at 550,000. They therefore 
anticipate that in I SB7 consumption will have increased 
by 55,000 tons. This view is encouraging, but, wt think, 
if anything, not sufficiently sanguine. 
The total European consumption may bo estimated at 
nearly ."570,000 tons. Messrs. W. Schoffer & (Jo. prove in- 
contestable by statistics that, in France and Germany, 
the two largest consuming countries, consumption is 
steadily increasing at a uniform rate of about 10 per 
cent, in each five years. With prices at their present 
low level, we believe we are justified in anticipating that 
this ratio of increase will be maintained, if noi exceeded, 
over the whole of Europe. 
In 1887, therefore, consumption in Europe alone 
should have increased by certainly not less than 35,000 
tons. 
Buc in the United States for the last twenty years the 
consumption of coffee has beeu increasing still more 
rapidly, thus : — Tons. 
1860/1804 gave an average yearly con. of about 57,300 
1865/ 1869 „ „ ,, ,, ,, 85,600 
1870/1874 „ ,, ,, ,, 100,900 
1875/1879 „ ,, ,, ,, ,, 160,000 
In 1880 the consumption was 165,000 tons. 
In 1881 we have not the figures before us, but 
unless our memory fail us, it was over 1S< ',000 tons. 
A casual glance at these figures will show that tho 
completion of each five years since 1860 has witnessed 
an increase in consumption of some 50 per cent, on 
two occasions, and of 25 per cent, on the third. 
If, during the next five years, the American con- 
sumption increases by only 25 per cent., this will mean 
an increase in 1887 of some 40,000 tons. But, if the 
past bo equalled, and an increase be established of 
50 per cent., the advance in ISS7 should be no less 
than 80.0H0 tons. 
According then to the more favourable calculation, 
the total increase in the combined European nnd 
American consumption in 1887 will be 116,000 tons, 
or if the less favourable anticipation be verified, tho 
increase will be 76,OG<> tons — even in this case exceed- 
ing Messrs. W. Schoffer & Co.'s calculations by 21,000 
tons. 
The calculation, that the consumption is increasing 
steadily at about an uniform rate of 10 per cent, each 
five years, is based to a certain extent on the fact that 
in 1872 the total quantity delivered in Europe and the 
States was about 450,000 tons, in 1881 550,000. But 
we think tins is misleading, because in 1872 markets 
b :in to ri^e, and a range of prices became estab- 
lished, winch, lasting as they did for some years, could 
no) fail but to prevent any extension of consumption, 
it not to actually curtail it. In 1-77 the world's 
Consumption was about 450,000, proving that during 
this period of five years no progress had been made 
M regards deliveries. The history of the last live 
I years, however, tells a different tale. With a lower 
range of quotations we find th«t a fairly steady increase 
has taken place at about the rate of 25 per cent, for 
the five years, and, if tlm rite he maintained, in ISS7 the 
, consumption should total say OSO.OOOtons, instead of 
the 550,000 tons it does al the pn sent lime. The differ- 
ence it therefore about I30,00ti tons, an mount which 
lentil to*>corrohurate the figures given by us above — 
figures based on s'atistics which extend ovei twenty 
J ■ 1 r 
As a matter of fact, if, during the next five years, the 
1 American demand re nuins stationary, and, if tho Euro- 
pean demand increases by the moderate percentage 
predicted, production remaining as at present, in I8i>7 
demand and supply should that year virtually balance 
one another. 
Thus it would seem that all increase in the American 
consumption — and we have already shewn above of 
what an important, nature this increase should be — 
might at no distant date have to be satisfied at the 
expense of stocks. 
Our friends may think that this argument is invalid- 
ated by tho fact that it rests in great measure upon 
the supposition that production will remain stationary, 
a probability, which, in the face of the history of the 
last few years may he argued a remote one. But it 
must be remembered that, however largo the increase 
of late may have been in production, it is doubtful in 
face of existiug prices whether the acreage under cult- 
ivation will be extended at present. 
Turning to a matter for a moment, which is of great 
interest to our o,vn home trade, although of comparat- 
ive insignificance to the world in geueral, it is to be 
regretted that in the United Kingdom coffee is makiug 
no progress. Indeed, if the consumption per head be 
the basis of calculation, coffee may be said to be losing 
ground rapidly, these fac s are most annoying, more 
especially as it is well known that the article in England 
has not had fair play. The masses never taste genuine 
coffee, and the sickly mixtures that are forced upon 
them as such are quite sufficient to account for the 
unsatisfactory position. 
Messrs. W. Schoffer & Co. point out that according 
to some estimates, the shipments from Bio to Europe 
for the rest of the season will be very light. That they 
will be light is a certainty, but on the other hand the 
supplies Irom Santos will be unusually heavy. 
In our circular dated January, 1882, we remarked 
"at the present time the 1SS2- I8S3 crops in Rio and 
Santos promise to be again enormous, some saying 
j that Santos alone will give 2,000,000 bags. It is estim- 
ated that the crops together will total not less than 
6,000,000 hags or say 353,000 tons." Such figures must 
of course be accept-d with the greatest caution, as it is 
still too early to assess these crops with certainty; still 
the broad fact remains that it' their outline bo true, the 
large surplus of low descriptions now current, even it 
decreased during the next six months or so. must be 
I again augmented either in Europe or elsewhere, when 
these heavy growing crops come forward in quantity. 
Messrs. W. Schoffer & Co. argue that the respective 
I positions of fine and common qualities promise to become 
I more and more divided. Fine coffees, at prices such as 
arenow Durrcnt, may be said to be within the reach of 
I the multitude, and the consumption of such ought there- 
I fore to be very large. The stock of such coffees are 
small, the prices are low, and now that the estimate of 
the Ceylon crop has been dropped to 30, 0^0 tons— an 
estimate which many of our friends believe will not be 
[ equalled by the result — there is again a further reason 
for watching these descriptions. 
[ Messrs. W. Schoffer &, Co. very markedly say that 
j they believe the prices of such coffees must soon travel 
i upwards. 
Those who buy articles wheu they arc low, and 
are not afraid to hold them, when the; have bought 
I them, ought to watch common coffees. In this manner 
I large fortuuen have been made, and, for absolute 
storing, we believe Bio -coffees at 40s to be a better 
I investment than plantation at 7"'s. to B0*. Accord rig 
to past experience, in the one enso a rise of nearly 
| 200 per cent is not impossible, whilst, in the other, 
a rise of HQ per cent, is about as much as history 
allows us to calculate upon. In tho former ease > on 
can hold for years, without the collee deteriorating, 
whilst, in the latter case, a few weeks' frost or snow 
will damage tho colour very considerably. In these 
days, when Speculative itoolu aro held often tenaciously 
till their value becomes nil it would not he uniiatuinl 
if 'he attention of the speculator was turned to au 
