FfiB. 1. i894.j THE TROPICAL 
AGRICULTURIST. 
535 
THE CENTRAL PRICE OF QUININE. 
The natural price is, at it were, the central price 
to which the prices of all commodities ate cou- 
tintially grnvita'ing. Different accidents may some- 
times keep them suspeadeJ a pood deal above it, 
and souielimfla force tbem rlown evea somewhat below 
it. But whstever vai-y he the obataoies which hinder 
them from settling in thiH centre of repose aid con- 
tinu»nce, they are constantly tending towards it. — 
Adam Smith. — " WealtU of INatii ns," Book I., ch. 7. 
In the eicellent letter from Baron von EoBenberg, 
the ladiaa cinchona pl»ntpr, which we pu distied a 
few weeks Rgo, many weighty reasons were given why 
cinchona birk ought to rise considerably in price 
within the near future. And the reports which have 
Bioce been receive! from Java, now the key of the 
bark-positioD, go a long way to corifirra the belief tl at 
during the coming year there may ba a consiierable 
decline in the c nchona exports from that island. 
O'ber factors which w H make for higher prices of 
the chief cinchona product are the admittedly large 
decrease in the London barl;-?ticks, which have fallfin 
from 49 502 bales of all kinis on D- c. Itt, 1892, 
to 39,654 bales on the Ist of this month, and the 
Bnppoied, iiut un^scertaindble raducion in the supply 
cf s°cond-hand quinine existii g in this metr >polis and 
other centres of the trade. We have often been 
repro'iched witn mi>nifesting in this journal an 
undue partiality for what; are called "bear" argumeot'", 
and with laying too much wnight upon in acations of 
appro*" hing falls in price. Suppos ng — what we do 
not nltoaether deny— that such a t ndenoy has really 
found eipre.iaion in these column", the cavillers might 
be answered with the words that if they wish for 
facts in justification of these alleged views, tiiey only 
need to look aroaod them Hnd compare the prices of 
the lesd'ng drui:s now and, say, t'^n yearj ago. So 
far as quinine is concerned, oar often-expressed dis- 
belief in any pr dooged improvement in the ma-ket 
so long as the notoriously existing causes of over-supply 
were not removed has certainly been justified by 
eventi, but we fully reoogniss that in the course of 
the ye«r which is now closing th-s conditions favouring 
lower prices have undergone oousiderable modifications. 
We will go further, and express our belief that if the 
informat on upon which we must base our views can be 
depended up m (and unless systematic speculation 
shoul t depress prices undulv) the era of quinine at 9d 
per oz. and I'ss may be regarded as closed, and we 
sQall proba'ly shortly arrive at a time when Is or 
thereaboutn will he the normal axis round which, with 
a short radius, prices will revolve. 
We base these views upon indications revealed by a 
general and cureful f-utvey of the cii.ohnna and quinine 
markets, and not, we hasten to add, upon the specu- 
lative movement which in the course ot the last fort- 
night, bus caused quinire to advance from 9Ad to 
abou' lOj 1 per oz. These suddeo eruptions of b otchy 
speculation threaten to become chronic alout Uhris'- 
m«s-time, sn l they rt ally deserve no encourjgemei t 
from dealers who are a. xious to see a steady consfant 
ill provement in the market, such as the preteut state 
of bark production and quinine coneumptinn appears 
to warrint. The circumstance that some firm or ano- 
ther oati ntationsly buys one or two hundreo thousnud 
ou^ COS ot quinine, rot because it is actually required by 
consumers, but simply because it is thousfht aiivisable 
to give a filip to the market, caouot improve the com- 
mercial po ition of the drug in the long rnu, inas- 
much as it S'mply trai sfer.s to speculator li. what 
WI.B rreviou'ly held by speculator A. The mere 
speculator, it is well to remember, is equally the 
enemy of the manufacturer and of the consumer. 
Like the "menial servant" upon whom Adam Smith is 
Bosevtie, his services to thf community, auoh as they 
are, porl^h in the very instant ot their performance, 
and seldom leave any trace or value behind them. 
Looking simply at what happened during the closing 
months of thi.i latt four years, we shall find that on < acU 
O 'la^ioD the qu niue-m"rket be<an to show a Budilen 
rc-Ttrsl shortly before the Christmas holidays, and 
that the excitement generally laeted until the New 
Year's business had fairly oommenced, only to evaiie«0S: 
like the ' ft-qnoted bassiess fabrio of a vision, ■bant 
the middle of the first month. Thu-s: — 
In Dec , 1889, quininn rose rapidly from 13^1 to 
li\d per 02 , and to lofd per oz., ia Jan,, 1890, after 
whif!h it began to decline 
In Dec, 1899, quinine olofed firmly at 12d. E«rly 
in Jan., 1891, it r se to 12|d per oz., after which H 
began 'o decline. 
In D^n. 1891, quinine rose from 8-|d to 9(i, and in 
Jan.. 1892, to 9id, after which it began to decline- 
In Deo., 1892, quinine ro'e from 9id, to 9§ 1 per oz., 
and in Jan., 1893, to 9 9-l6tb d per 02., after whiob i» 
began to decline. 
On none of these ooaasionff, it is well to observe-, 
was there any backbone in the article. Combina- 
tion-rumours, influenza, sometimes the mere ides that 
the drug was ch^ap, were the guiding motives of 
the speculators, and in each case the movement etuiai 
in I'^aving corsumers generally more distrustful of 
the drug than ever. It is only fair to s'ate, however, 
that a not inoonsiderabla proportion of the sales whieb' 
have been made this month are said to hasvp beeo 
made to wholesale drnugists and other bmiA-Jide con- 
Bumers. — Chemist and Druggist. 
« 
A RETROSPECT AT QQININE. 
lu the preceding article we have pointed out tbat 
quinine and, fur the matter of that, oinchooa-bark, 
are in an economic petition which justifiea tt rise ia 
th' ir prices apart from all merely speculative market- 
ri^'^iug. We are, in fact, firmly of opinion thut at 
the present time there exists a strong undorcurreut 
in the quinine market making for higher prices, 
and that, as s >oq as the frothy sarfaoe-wash 
of sptculatioa has subsided, that undercurrent 
will begin to make itself distinctly felt. We have 
alredy roughly enumerated some of the oauaea that 
lead us to expect a gra IujI improvement in the drug 
and we may perhaps add anotber, which may poi- 
aibly count for a good deal. It is the tacit, if not 
actually written, understanding to refrain from 
outiing which has for some time existed among the 
German quinine manufacturers. Since it has beea 
concluded the markot has beea singularly devoid of 
excitement, and it is quesiouable whether the 
"understanding" would beer the strain of any sudden 
manifestation of rash speculation, iuch ai may very 
coucaivably await us next year. But il the quinine- 
makers abstain from playing at oroes purposes they 
can do very much to increase the ttibility of the 
market and in the present disorganised oonditioa of tue 
oiuohc n-i growing industry they can make their weapoa 
cut bo^h ways by keeping quinine prices up and 
the bark-unit down. App> arauces certainly favour the 
expectation ttiat 1894 may be the most intdrestiugf - 
year in the quinine-market since 1884. 
Tl e greit majority of wholesale druggists, broker*, 
and shippers will certainly be only too glad to tons 
their br.cks for ever upon cheap qu'iiice. There ia 
scarcely a man amoni^ them who has not had causfrto 
regret having touched the drug in the way of bnsineaa 
for the la t tea years. It is to be hoped that those 
wto after waiting with a pitienoe worthy of a better 
cause, have ete new ridded themselves of their stock 
at a sacrifice wi'l have learned wisd.)m by cxperienae, 
while tht se who have clung to their costly bolainga 
thr.)ughout the evil tima may now love them tie 
more for the dangers I hey hive passed, and reioioe in 
the po.ssib e advent of a time when they ihall be 
aula to sell them with a better prospect of a fair 
return. AVe are of. aid that these speonlntors will 
Iwrdly be able to find cause for loviuif us ttiB> we 
Old pity them, for had they taken thii journal's 
advice to heart earlier tbey, would not cow be holdom 
of expensive stock at kll. 
The bark-growers too, or such of tbem as hay» 
weathered the storm, and who have tasted tbM bit« 
tereht of all eocrows of remembering earlier happy 
limes during later years of misery, will again feel 
hope rise hi^h within them when withiu the neir 
future they heivr, as pwnfcly the/ ma/i B|»«dily 
