Jan. i, 1895.] THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. 
459 
COCONUT AND CINNAMON PROSPECTS. 
It is curious that, while our correspondents have 
been discussing in our columns for some time 
past the effect of the absence of sunlight on 
the tea-flush upcountry during the past quarter, 
the two great lowcountry products should have 
suffered during the same period as severely as 
they have done, from the opposite cause, 
too much sun. The question of the influ- 
ence of the moon has not been raised in 
connection with Coconuts and Cinnamon ; 
and thus, as our friends at Hulftsdorp 
would say, the issues are simplified ! There can 
be no question that there has been a serious de- 
ficiency of rainfall this year in the lowcountry 
and that crops have suffered disastrously in the 
Western, North- Western, Eastern and Northern 
Provinces, which are the chief producers of coco- 
nuts. On the extent to which the Southern 
Province has suffered from the drought at the begin- 
ning of the year, and again during the third" 
quarter, we have not very definite informa- 
tion. From all we have heard from the 
provinces named — and to a certain extent from 
what we have seen in two of them, — we are satis- 
fied that the outturn of crop this year will be 
much shorter than that of last year. There 
must be a considerable acreage of coconut land 
coming into bearing each year, of which, we re- 
gret, no accurate and full information is available' 
and the young plantations may help to reduce 
the deficiency ; but that there will be a defi- 
ciency admits of little doubt. The information 
in our commercial column of " no arrivals " of 
copra, or " small arrivals," from time to time, 
is ominous, and means that the favourate sea- 
borde-districts from Negombo to Kalpitiya, are 
sending down restricted supplies. If even the 
total outturn for the year be not short of the 
production last year, we fancy few estates 
will have picked as many nuts this year 
as they did in 1893 ; and the complaints 
we had from all sides of the dropping of 
miniature nuts in heart-rending abundance, go to 
confirm our apprehensions. Nor, we learn, is it 
the case that good prices have quite compen- 
sated for the smallness of crops. True, they 
show a distinct advance on the prices realized 
some years ago ; but as compared with last year 
the average is not likely to show any improve- 
ment. There has been a run down in the price of 
coconut oil — instead of an advance which the 
winter months generally show ; and this has kept 
copra stationary for many weeks past, thus pre- 
venting a rise in the price of nuts even in 
districts from which desiccating mills draw their 
supplies. 
1 11 a recent issue we mentioned the opinion 
of an authority on the subject, who had recently 
travelled through a considerable portion of the 
Western Province', that though the prospects of 
Coconut crops are poor for the early part of 
next year, the returns are likely to be much 
"better during the latter half, say Aug. to Dec. 18SI5. 
A planter with perhaps equal means of observation, 
takes except ion to this lorceasl as too hopeful, 
lie argues thai the March-April, May-.luue, and 
July-August oiops are always the heaviest, and 
that after August the crops keep decreasing — 
the three pickings between that month and Feb- 
ruary being generally about a half of the three 
big crops. The last drought having extended 
for full three months from July to September; 
he fears that the August crop, which is gene- 
rally the largest, will be below the average: 
while the October crop too, may be poorer than 
usual through the falling-off of tiny nuts 
under the influence of heavy rains after a long 
and severe drought, such as we had last October. 
Even in places which escaped this loss through 
good cultivation or seasonable weather, there are 
ten months of contingencies to be faced. 
However, we will hope for the best. The greater 
attention paid to cultivation by natives is a 
fact — partly due to the example of energetic 
and enlightened lessees and proprietors, and 
partly to the encouraging prices which have 
ruled for nuts during the past two or three years ; 
but unfortunately, careful, liberal cultivators are 
still in a minority. The verdict of the pro- 
prietor on whose experience and observation 
the foregoing remarks are based is, that "most 
estates in the Western Province — except where 
a heavy acreage is coming into bearing — will 
show this year much shorter crops than last • 
and next year will scarcely show any improve- 
ment on this year." 
As regards Cinnamon, the outlook is scarcely 
more hopeful than with Coconuts. The cry from 
all sides is that there has been no growth of 
wood to speak of, and on one well-known and 
extensive estate, the small crop, now on, is ex- 
pected to be harvested in- three or four weeks ! 
This experience, we regret to learn, is not ex- 
ceptional, as many estates are in a like case. 
The prolonged drought not only prevented the 
growth of wood in most places ; but absolutely 
scorched mature bushes in some, killing them 
outright. One effect of 10 to 12 weeks of rain- 
lessness, save for an occasional shower, has 
been, we are told, that the sticks failed to 
peel even when the rains were on. They took 
time to recover. A heavy leaf-bud further de- 
layed operations ; and it is only during the past 
week or two that anything like satisfactory work 
has been done. With a strong labour force, all that 
can be done is being done in harvesting; but what 
with another bud approaching and the drought 
that will presently begin — if it lias not already 
begun — the free flow of sap essential to the suc- 
cessful peeling of cinnamon sticks will cease ' 
and that will be the end of the small crop. 
Of the big crop commencing in April-May, we 
are told, it is too early to speak confidently. 
The bushes are beginning to take heart, and if 
the spring drought be not exceptionally severe 
an average crop may be expected. Let us hope 
that this cautious forecast will be more than 
realized, and that a good time will soon be 
coming for cinnamon proprietors, both in crops and 
prices. 
As evidence of the great deficiency of rainfall this 
year, we may draw attention to the appended state- 
ment from a plantation, within 2,3 miles of Colombo, 
which has been placed at our disposal. Last year 
was certainly wet above the average ; but the 
reaction this year is striking. The fall in 
December will carry the total for 1894 up 
to 70 inches. That makes a deficiency of 30 
inches, or say 20 inches on the average annual 
rainfall of the district. Can it be wondered that 
the very scanty rainfall of the first two months 
of the year, the poor show in May, and the very 
small record for July-September, affected products 
whose growth and harvesting are greatly dg« 
