8o8 
THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. [June i, 1895. 
had received discussion here prior to his leaving 
Ceylon upon his mission. If Mr. Mackenzie may 
rightly he credited with the views we have eon- 
jecturally assigned to him, lie will hold them, 
we know, in common with a good many other 
men of experience in the tea trade. These will 
no doubt think that the expense incurred over 
our Commissioner's visit might well have been 
spared. We should not he with them in that 
conclusion. Before this visit we had to depend 
largely upon theorizing only, and that of very 
differing aspects. By Mr. Mackenzie's visit we 
hope to be able to reduce those differences, and 
to narrow them to a point. So far as we are 
aware, Mr. Mackenzie left here with no parti- 
cular theory of his own to support or discard. 
He went on his embassy with an open mind, 
and we have that full confidence in his judg- 
ment and discretion which justifies the certain 
expectation that he will have held the balance 
evenly between conflicting opinions. We are 
sure that his recommendations, whatever they may 
prove to be, will be warranted by the experi- 
ence he has gained and the information he has 
obtained. Supposing that we have rightly con- 
jectured his possible views, the course he will 
counsel pursuance of, will at least have one par- 
ticular advantage. It must prove to be infinitely- 
less costly than any attempt we might make 
to chalk out a new path for ourselves, one 
that should be entirely independent of existing 
agencies and interests. The danger would be 
incurred, were the latter course entered upon, 
of arousing opposition of a very bitter and very 
influential kind. We believe that we are entitled 
to assume from Mr. Mackenzie's letter, and From 
the shortness of his visit to the States, that 
he is not prepared to recommend any steps 
likely to arouse this opposition. It is not pro- 
bable that we shall Jong be left without in- 
formation of a mere definite kind than that 
upon which we have thus written conjectur 
ally only. 
♦ 
THE COFFEE TRADE. 
On the 15th September, last year, I wrote an 
article in The Statist on coffee production, and I 
estimated the crops of the world for the season 
1894-95 at 12 million bags, of which 7J million bags 
were put down to Brazil, and 4 J millions to the crops 
of other countries. This estimate was considered 
very moderate, and it was undoubtedly smaller than 
most others current at the time. The movements 
in coffee since then, however, indicate distinctly that 
it was too large, and in place of 12 millions it is 
now evident that the total crops this season will 
realise only 11£ million bags. Although the San- 
tos crop is almost certain to realise my expectations, 
yet that of Rio falls heavily below my estimate, 
while the exports from Victoria, Bahia, and Ciara 
also are likely to show some shortage. My estimate 
of 7| millions for Brazil must therefore be reduced to 
7,100,000 bags, and, owing to a smaller outturn from 
Venezuela and Central America than looked for, 
the crops of other countries will yield probably only 
4,150,000 bags instead of 4£ million bags. The re- 
duction which thus has to be made m the supply 
for 1894-95 amounts to 750,000 bags, which, of 
course, is a very important item, but it is eclipsed 
bv the changes which have taken place in the pro- 
spects of the Brazil crops for 1895-96. These were 
at the time very favourable, .and in October last 
several firms estimated the Santos crop for next 
season at 5 million bags, while the Rio crop in Sep- 
tember was estimated at 3 or 31 millions, and even 
in November it was computed at 2 to 2J million bags 
From time to time these estimates have been gradu 
ally reduced until now, when we hear that the next 
0k (» || WW l ikel 7 W wceed x i Million^ while 
the estimates of the next Santos crop ran from :>} 
to 4 million bags. As regards the prospects of supply, 
therefore, the 'position of coffee nas undergone an 
important change, which naturally baa brought 
about a revulsion in the sentiment generally 
prevailing in September and October in favour of 
ower prices. In order to show to what eiteut this 
change of sentiment has operated on the price of 
coffee for "future" delivery, I now gire the prices 
current for the " Mav " position at the lowest point 
n October last in New York, London, and Havre, 
compared with those now ruling for the same 
position : — 
New York London fRio, Havre (San- 
(Uio. N' 7 fair Channel, toe, good 
Cents per lb. No. 21. per averagel fr. 
cwt. per SO kilo. 
October, 1894 . .10- 5.'. .. ;.2s 3d .. 74J 
March 27, 1895.. 14-95 .. 67s 6d 944 
This advance, although accounted for by the deterio- 
rated prospects of supply, was undoubtedly accelerated 
by the unexpected appearance in the field of a lame, 
operator for the " rise " in Paris, who in December 
took up close upon 200,000 bags of coffee tendered 
to him by Havre merchants. How much of this 
coffee yet remains unsold those interested only know, 
but the greater portion has probably yet to be dis- 
posed of. 
If there has been a great change in the prospects 
of supply, there has. on the other hand, been no 
change in the world's actual consumption of coffee. 
That is now on the came level, practically, as during 
the last two years — that is to say. it is rather under 
than over 10* million bags. 
What are the prospects of the coffee market in 
these altered circumstances as regards supply 1 The 
answer must in some measure depend on whether one 
refers to the distant or the near luture. If the small 
estimates now current of the crops at Rio and Santos 
for 1895-96 should prove correct, then the statistical 
position will become one of great strength in 1896, 
for a total of only 5} million bags from Rio and 
Santos is * million bags less than is needed, with 
average supplies from other sources ; and in such 
case the small surplus accumulated in 1894-95 would be 
swept away in 1896, and lead to reduced stocks, 
and this would probably help in maintaining pre- 
sent very high prices. But the small estimate 
of the next Brazil crop may prove exaggerated, 
and supplies from other countries mav prove larger 
than the average of the last three years. If so, 
then the position in 1896 might not become so 
strong as it looks at present. 
If we turn to the near future the considerations 
which have to be borne in mind may be summed 
up as follows : — 
1. That even with a production reduced to Hi 
million bags for 1894-95, there will for months to come 
be an ample supply of coffee, with a consumption 
not exceeding 10£ million bags. 
2. That the large supplies of miscellaneous coffees, 
which will continue to arrive in all markets from 
now until July, will call for less demand on Brazi- 
lian sorts. 
3. That the consumption of coffee hi the United 
States always is smaller during the summer months 
than at other periods of the year. 
4. That present prices are considered to be on a 
rather high level, even by some parties who write 
strongly m favour of the article. 
If, therefore, distributors will continue a careful and 
cautious policy, buying only for their actual require- 
ments, there is a fair chance that, as regards the 
near future, we may see rather easier prices for coffee. 
Anton Hvistendahl. 
— The Statist, March 30. 
COFFEE IN BRAZIL. 
We regret to note that the protest of the cof- 
fee exporters, which appeared in our last issue, 
has had no other effect than to confirm the schemes 
of the gum speculators. The minister of finance 
and the representatives, of the states of Minas, 
