446 
THE  TROPICAL  AGRICULTURIST. 
[Jan.  1893. 
TEA  ESTIMATES. 
One  “keenly  observant”  planter  replying  to  “H.A.T.” 
reminds  us  that  be  never  said  a word  “against  'he 
planters  using  their  one  great  organization  to  collect 
an  annual  estimate  o(  tea  crop,  in  ■place  of  numerous 
inaccurate  irresponsible  estimates ” (italics  are  ours),  Out 
against  any  estimate  official  or  otherwise.  He  adds:  — 
• If  newspapers  and  representatives  in  Counoil  erred 
greatly  early  this  year,  so  did  hundreds  of  super-  ( 
intendents  in  the  case  of  the  properties  under  tbeir 
charge.  And  they  are  liable  to  do  so  again.  An  esti- 
mate now,  when  all  are  smarting  under  a sense  of  dis- 
appointment, if  followed  by  a genial  season,  is  likely 
to  be  as  far  under  the  mark,  as  estimates  this  year 
were  over.  Then  what  will  become  of  the  credit  of 
the  offioial  estimates  ! A low  official  estimate  would 
undoubtedly  encourage  shipments  from  China.  Then, 
given  a genial  season,  a crop  12  to  15  per  oent 
over  estimate,  more  China  teas  than  would  other- 
wise be  the  case,  a fall  in  prices,  and  a happy  time 
for  the  official  estimators!  “ H.  A.  T.”  admits  that, 
for  the  last  nine  months,  the  telegraphed  shipments 
probably  formed  the  only  true  basis  for  London 
operations.  Why  no*  let  them  do  so  in  the  future?” 
Mr.  J.  L.  Shand,  writing  on  the  24th  ult.,  offers 
a word  of  warning  in  respect  of  tbe  Estimate  for 
1893.  He  will  probably  be  pleased  to  hear  of  an 
“ offioial  ” Estimate  being  arranged  for  by  the 
P.  A.  Committee.  He  very  fairly  takes  credit 
for  having  made  the  best  estimate  for  1892.  He 
writes : — 
“ In  February  after  I had  had  a good  look  round 
I wrote  home  : — ‘ 1 do  not  think  so  iar  as  I 
hive  seen,  1892  will  be  far  ahead  of  1891,  70.000,000 
lb.  with  an  ordinary  season  74,000,000  lb.  with 
an  exceptionally  favourable  one  will,  I believe,  be 
the  thing.  Many  places  show  signs  of  having 
been  hard  plucked  and  will  not  do  as  much  as 
they  did  last  year.' 
“ This  was  the  text  from  which  a good  deal  of 
childish  abuse  was  lavished  upon  me,  but  I adhere 
to  every  word  of  it.  Nearly  all  tbe  old  planters  I met 
and  I travelled  between  Matale  and  Madulsima  told 
me  they  would  make  less  tea  off  their  fields  in  full 
bearing  in  1892  than  they  did  in  1891—  their  reasons 
being  1891  had  been  an  exceptionally  favourable 
season  and  they  had  all  let  their  tea  run  longer  and 
plucked  harder  than  they  intended  to  do  in  1892.  In 
spite  of  all  that  has  been  said  to  the  contrary  1891 
was  a more  abnormally  favourable  season  than  1892 
has  been  abnormally  unfavourable— the  normal  yield 
for  1891  should  have  been  59.000,000  lb. ; for  1892 
71,000,000 ; and  for  1893  78  to  82,000,000.  The  weather 
alone  is  not  to  blame  for  the  apparent  shortcoming 
of  1892.  If  tea  is  plucked  for  16  18  or  20  months 
without  pruning,  it  of  course  takes  longer  to  recupe- 
rate after  pruning.” 
Now,  we  must  say  that  the  opinion  we  have 
formed  is  rather  different  in  respeot  of  the  weather 
and  this  year’s  crop.  At  any  rate  during  September- 
November  a great  deal  more  tea  would  have  been 
made  and  shipped,  were  it  not  for  unusually  un- 
favourable weather,  and  the  cry  at  this  moment 
is  that  nearly  all  individual  estimates  are  short — 
that  is,  estimates  framed  when  Mr.  J.  L.  Shand 
was  in  the  island.  However,  there  is  the  faot  that 
Mr.  Shand's  “ 70  ” millions  is  the  nearest  guess  at 
the  actual  result — may  we  say  more  by  luck  than 
good  guidanae,  just  as  our  own  estimate  of  68 
millions  made  in  July  1891  happened  to  be  exactly 
right  at  the  end  of  that  year  ? Curiously  enough 
for  1893,  Mr.  Shand  gives  nearly  the  same  figures 
as  we  put  forth  tentatively  ten  days  ago  : — 78  to  82 
— we  said  78  to  83  millions. 
THE  CHINA  TEA  SEASON. 
The  beginning  of  the  end  of  the  tea  season  at 
Foochow  has  come  npon  ua  unprecedentedly  early 
thii  year.  There  ia  an  unsold  stork  of  Congou  left  of  I 
9 000  ohsBts  and  we  understand  7,000  ohests  more  are  1 
pxpeoted  to  arrive.  This,  in  the  ordinary  course  of 
business,  would  take  a week  only  to  dispose  of,  but 
it  would  seem  that  tbe  actual  close  of  the  teas.  n ia 
not  to  be  yet,  as  the  foreign  buyers  do  Dot  care  to  buy 
and  the  teamen  are  in  no  hurry  to  sell.  It  is  a feature 
in  this  month’s  business  that  a full  fortnight 
elapsed  without  so  much  as  the  chance  of  ship- 
ping to  Europe.  Since  tbe  departure  of  tbe  “OaBfa” 
on  the  4th  instant  no  steamer  arrived  to  take  the 
berth  until  the  “ Priam  ” yesterday,  and  even  after 
this  long  interval,  she  leaves  today  with  less  than 
I of  a million  lb.  It  is  true  that  tbe  “ Pingsuey  ” 
and  “ Gleofalloch  ” are  due  next  week  but  they  will 
take  do  larger  quantity  eacb,  and  tbe  month’s  ex- 
port will  be  complete.  It  is  curious  that  shipping 
should  be  gomg  on  in  this  desultory  way  at  the 
last,  but  it  does  not  alter  the  fact  that  tbe  season 
hfts  virtually  come  to  an  end  unprecedentedly  early. 
The  following  figures  are  interesting  : — 
8tock  on 
19tb  Nov. 
ohesti. 
Arrived 
after. 
chests. 
1880 
50,000 
73, ot  0 
26,000 
1881 
16,000 
1882 
37,000 
16,000 
1883 
31,000 
20,000 
1884 
50,000 
3,000 
1885 
...  5,000 
14,000 
1886 
55,000 
6.000 
1887 
88,100 
10,000 
1888 
. . 55,000 
oil. 
1889 
35,000 
8,000 
1890 
28,000 
16,000 
1891 
45,000 
7,000 
1892 
'oochow  Echo. 
8.000 
8,000 
pec 
INDIAN  AND  CEYLON  TEA  COMPANIES. 
(The  Echo , London,  Nov.  23.) 
A correspondent,  wfio  considers  that  we  have 
“ rather  persistently  ” disparaged  Indian  and  Oeylon 
tea  companies,  and  that  this  arises  from  “ a desire 
not  to  recommend  ” wnat  we  have  no  special  know- 
ledge of,  forwards  a few  particulars,  which  we  place 
before  readers  of  this  columu  : — Of  IndiaD  companies, 
perhaps  some  of  tbe  best  known  are  tbe  Assam, 
Darjetling,  Dooars,  Jorehaut,  Lebong,  and  Upper 
Assam.  The  £20  shares  of  the  first-named  are  new 
quoted  at  29  to  30.  TLe  company  has  9,341  acres 
under  cultivation,  and  after  the  payment  of  6 per 
cent.  O a the  Debentures,  the  distribution  on  the 
Ordinary  capital  has  been  10  per  cent,  for  1890  aDd 
1891,  and  6 per  cent  for  1892 — the  yield  at  the  pre- 
sent price  being  rather  more  than  4 per  cent.  The 
Darjeeling,  with  a cultivated  area  of  2 094  sores, 
has  paid  6 per  cent,  in  1890  and  1891,  and  5 
per  cent,  in  1892.  Its  £20  shares  stand  at  18  to 
20,  and  the  return  at  this  quotation  is  5 per  cent. 
The  Dooars,  with  5,178  aces,  after  the  payment  of 
7 per  cent,  on  the  Preferred  capital,  has  distributed 
10  per  oent.  on  the  Ordinary  shares  for  three  con- 
secutive years,  aDd  at  the  present  price  the  latter 
yield  £7  11s  6d  per  cent.,  and  the  Preference  £5  17«. 
The  Jorehaut,  with  a rather  smaller  cultivated  acreage, 
has  paid  dividends  at  a similar  rate  for  1890,  1891  and 
1892,  and  at  30  to  32,  the  price  now  quoted,  the  return 
would  exceed  6 per  oent.  Two  properties,  the  shares 
of  which  are  at  a considerable  discount,  are  reported 
to  be  on  the  improve,  viz,  tbe  British  India  and 
Eastern  Assam.  The  former  is  likely  to  pay  5s  per 
sbare  shortly,  and  it  is  deemed  probable  that  the 
other  may  a'so  come  to  the  front  again  as  a dividend- 
earning  concern.  Nothing  has  been  paid  since  1877. 
The  Ordinary  capital  of  the  British  India  Tea  Com- 
pany, which  originally  was  £240,000,  has  been  reduced 
to  £60,800,  its  market  yalue  at  present  quotations 
being  not  much  more  than£18,0f0.  Thpre  are,  how- 
ever,  £11,000  of  Debentures  bearing  10  per  cent, 
interest.  Of  tho  Oeylon  Tea  Companies,  that  of 
the  Ceylon  Tea  Plantations  (Limited)  stands 
high  in  publio  estimation,  a dividend  of  15  per 
