Jan.  2,  1893.]  THE  TROPICAL  AGRICULTURIST.  473 
CEYLON  TEA  CROPS : 
ESTIMATE  AND  RESULTS. 
WHAT  IS  THOUGHT  CF  AN  “ OFFICIAL  ” ESTIMATE,  AND 
OF  THE  PATENT  “ TEA-PLUCKER.” 
Wbat  is  the  oorreot  explanation  about  the  great 
discreianoy  between  the  estimates  of  our  Tea  Crop 
or  Exports  this  year  and  the  aotual  results  ? 
Local  estimates  varied  from  78  to  85  million  lb. 
we  believe.  In  London,  we  think  Mr.  J.  L. 
gband,  after  his  visit  to  the  island,  as  well  as  Mr. 
Rutherford  were  credited  with  going  a gocd  deal 
lower  ; but  we  scarcely  think  anyone  put  the 
total  outturn  at  so  low  a figure  as  66  million  lb.  of 
tea  to  the  United  Kingdom  apart  from  6 millons  to 
Australia  and  other  countries,  or  only  72  million  lb. 
in  all.  After  shipping  over  68  million  lb.  in  1881 
and  considering  that  according  to  the  Directory 
returns,  no  less  than  22,000  acres  of  tea  were 
planted  between  1888  and  1889,  there  can  be  no 
doubt,  of  the  disappointment  attaching  to  suoh 
figures.  Early  in  1890,  we  offered  estimates  of  the 
years’  oirops,  which  ran  as  follows  : — 
1890  equal  to  46,500,000  lb. 
1891  „ 54,000,000  „ 
1892  „ 61,000,000  „ 
But  about  the  middle  of  1891,  we  saw  reason  to 
alter  our  estimates  as  follows  : — 
1891  equal  to  68,000,000  lb, 
1892  „ 80,000,000  „ 
In  respeot  of  aotual  results,  we  now  stand  as 
follows  : — 
Estimate.  Rebult. 
1890 
1891 
1892 
46,500,000  lb. 
68,000,000  „ 
80,000,000  „ 
46,900,554  lb. 
68,274,420  „ 
72,000,000  „ 
It  may  be  interesting  to  repeat  here  the  detailed 
estimate  for  1892  compiled  in  January  1890:  — 
1892. 
6 years  old  and  up- 
wards 
5 to  6 years 
4 to  5 ,, 
3 to  4 ,, 
2 to  3 „ 
Notin  bearing 
planted  in  1890-91  (say) . . 
Acres.  lb.  Yield  ib. 
99.000  at  340  = 33,660,000 
33.000  „ 300  = 9,900,000 
51.000  „ 250  = 12,750,000 
20.000  „ 200  = 4,400,000 
12.000  „ 100  = 1,200,000 
20,000  „ 
At  beginning  of 
(1892  acres) 
Loeal  consump- 
tion (say) 
235,000*  lb.  61,910,000 
660,000 
For  export  lb.  61,250,000 
In  July  1891,  we  added  the  following  note 
[This  estimate  is  still  interesting,  for  comparison, 
although  the  yield  in  each  case,  must  be  increased 
one-third.] 
The  total  acreage  at  the  beginning  of  1892  was, 
we  need  scarcely  say,  250,000  rather  than  285,000 
acres.  Now,  while  our  foreoast  was  almost  exaotly 
right  for  1890  and  aleo  (as  revised  in  July  1891)  for 
1891,  it  seems  that,  eighteen  months  ago,  and 
again  in  London  early  this  year,  we  were 
8 millions  above  the  mark  in  our  esti- 
mate of  80  million  lb.  for  1892.  Had  we 
added  one-sixth  instead  of  one-third  to  our 
detailed  estimate  of  January  1890,  we  should  have 
been  nearer  the  actual  result.  But  then  we  worked 
on  precisely  the  same  basis  in  our  final  estimate 
for  1891  aB  in  that  for  1892.  How  then  did  the 
one  come  right,  while  the  other  proves  so  far  out  ? 
So  far  ae  we  oan  learn  there  are  two  diametri- 
cally opposite  opinions  generally  held  amoDg  the 
• Leaving  out  native  gardens. 
planting  community  on  tli.'s  point.  On  the  one 
side  we  are  told,  that  the  year  1891  was  an  entirely 
abnormal  one — in  a favourable  sense — and  that 
moreover  there  was  decided  encouragement  in 
London  prices,  to  pluck  “ coarsely”;  while 
it  is  stated,  in  the  case  of  the  year  just 
closing,  we  have  simply  got  back  to  our  normal 
condition  and  to  an  outturn  which  corresponds 
very  fairly  with  the  estimates  of  earlier  years. 
On  the  other  hand,  it  is  pressed  upon  us  by 
many  planters  whose  estimates  have  not  been 
real. zed,  that  the  year  1892  was  a very  abnormal 
one  in  the  number  of  months  with  exceptionally 
bad  weather  and  that  herein  lies  the  true  expla- 
nation of  such  poor  returns  this  year  from  August 
till  November  inclusive.  They  admit  that  “coarse” 
plucking,  no  doubt,  iofluenoed  the  exports  of  1891  ; 
just  as  they  feel  sure  that  a spell  of  “ fine  ” 
plucking  has  this  year  reduced  th6  outturn. 
Broadly  speaking,  however,  they  maintain  that 
while  1891  waB  a favourable  year  all  through 
for  tea-plucking,  the  year  1892  was  an  ex- 
ceptionally bad  one.  Very  many  careful 
planters,  whose  individual  estimates  ale  out  frofn 
7 to  15  per  cent,  insist  that  not  they  are  at  fault,  but 
that  the  weather  is  to  blame.  At  the  same  time, 
it  is  quite  evident  that,  as  a whole,  cur  tea  planters 
will  profit  by  their  experience  during  both  1891  and 
1892.  Considering  how  muoh  depends  on  the 
weather  all  through  the  twelvo  months,  and  how 
impossible  it  is  to  forecast  it  from  the  beginning, 
the  safe  way  in  future  would  be  to  render  Esti- 
mates after  a minimum  and  maximum  fashion,  as 
from to  according  to  the  season  being 
favourable  or  unfavourable.  We  shall  await  with 
interest  the  result  of  the  “official”  Estimate  now 
under  collection  in  the  different  districts,  and  this 
we  may  be  able  to  check  by  means  of  our  own 
Directory  returns.  In  the  meantime  we  suppose 
the  safe  oourse  would  be  to  say  that  the  figures 
representing  the  total  exports  for  1893  will  probably 
be  found  between  78  and  83  million  lb.? 
Having  thus  expressed  our  view  of  the  “situation" 
so  far  as  we  have  been  enabled  to  form  an  opinion 
since  our  return,  we  havo  pleasure  in  giving  pro- 
minent insertion  to  the  rather  different  ideas  of  a 
thoughtful  and  keenly  observant  tea  planter.  Ho 
is  good  enough  to  write  as  follows:  — 
“I  don’t  rote  much  that  is  significant  of  change 
for  better  or  worse  with  regard  to  tea,  so  far  as  its 
health  or  cost  is  concerned.  It  grows  everywhere, 
and  this  year’s  total  exports  will  slightly  exceed  last 
year’s,  alth  ugh  most  estates  are  short  on  the  same 
acreage.  The  increased  age  and  area  make  up  for 
falling  off  in  rider  portions.  We  were  all  depressed 
until  prices  recovered  two  months  ago,  but  you  know 
what  a merourial  creature  the  Ceylon  planter  is, 
and  now  a Company  would  float  were  tho  chances  of 
getting  paying  crops  as  meagre  as  those  of  a dairy 
farm  on  the  Aden  sands.  The  ‘pest’  we  heard  of 
on  some  of  the  Kelani  Ya  ley  places  last  year  is  never 
mentioned  now,  and  1 hope  never  seen  also.  What 
did  us  most  injury  this  year  was  the  excessive  ex- 
pectations we  formed  early  in  the  year.  The  Loudon 
buyers  took  us  at  our  word  I 
“ The  truth  is,  wa  now  find  it  is  more  difficult  to 
estimate  a year’s  tea  crop  than  it  was  to  foretell  a 
coffee  crop.  The  weather  and  appearance  of  the 
trees  during  the  first  four  months  of  the  year,  were 
a fair  criterion  to  one  who  looked  at  facta  with  his 
eyes,  insti  ad  of  through  the  lamps  of  Faith  and 
Hope,  in  the  days  of  coffee.  Now  we  have  the 
weather  of  the  whole  year  to  take  into  account, 
and  this  year  S.-W.  from  July  to  October  has 
taught  us  a lesson.  Four  estates  I know  upcountry 
are  to  be  20,000,  30,000,  40,000  and  140,000  lb.  short 
of  estimates  1 Aud  mind  you,  finer  plucking  has 
I nothing  to  do  with  this.  It  is  duo  to  the  undoubted 
i fact  that  the  trees  would  not  flush. 
60 
