474 
THE  TROPICAL  AGRICULTURIST. 
[Jan.  2,  1893. 
“ I see  a movement  is  on  foot  for  an  official  esti- 
mate. I am  sorry  for  it.  Oar  monthly  shipments 
are  wired  to  London,  and  these  form  the  ODly  true 
basis  for  London  operations.  They  are  known  a 
month  before  the  teas  are  sold.  An  official  estimate 
now  may  be  quite  upset  by  a favorable  season  (unless 
we  all  agreed  to  pluck  fine  down  to  our  estimates) 
and  then  our  estimates  would  be  discredited  in  future, 
Then  nothing  is  gained  by  such  an  estimate,  nor 
any  purpose  or  want  supplied. 
“ The  ‘ clipping’  maohine  now  being  used  or  tried 
on  many  estates  may  and  probably  will  enable  us  to 
dispense  with  2-5ths  of  our  labor  force,  and  pluck 
our  tea  at  6c.  per  lb.  dry  weight.  But  then  it  will 
enable  half  the  world  to  compete  with  us  in  tea 
growing.  The  less  said  of  it  the  better  ! The  Planters’ 
Association  should  buy  the  patent,  and  suppress  it. 
The  export  to  the  Colonies  is  now  a great  faotor, 
and  Ceylon  teas  are  being  exported  in  fast  increas- 
ing quantities  from  London.  Then  much  is  hoped 
from  the  Grand  Show  ‘ J.  J;  G.’  is  to  make  in 
Chicago,  his  energy,  courage,  faith  in  his  brother 
planters  and  theirs  in  him,  and  his  readiness,  and  fear- 
lessness in  underlaking  responsibility  are  unbounded, 
and  he  is  admirably  backed  up  by  his  assistants. 
The  seed  he  will  sow  may  yet  blossom  into  10,000,000  lb. 
and  this  will  take  off  our  surplus  for  some  years. 
“Your  advice  to  Government  should  bo  sell  no 
more  tea  land  ; to  planters,  plant  no  more;  cultivate 
what  they  have  ; lay  up  their  profits  in  something 
more  stable  than  banks,  and  in  every  way  make 
provision  against  the  next  reverse  even  although  the 
horizon  seem  cloudless  for  years  ahead.” 
Ab  regards  the  alleged  “injury”  done  by  the  over- 
estimates, what  does  our  correspondent  say  to  the 
faot  that  we  were  assured  in  the  City,  again  and 
again,  that  London  tea-buyers  and  country  dealers  pay 
no  attention  to  estimates,— what  they  look  to  are 
the  statistics  of  stocks  in  bond  and  of  actual 
shipments  from  Colombo  and  Caloutta,  and  of  deli- 
veries. But  on  the  other  hand,  we  learned  that 
the  importers  of  China  teas  into  Europe  do  pay  special 
attention  to  the  Esimates  of  Indian , Ceylon  and  Java 
crops  and  upon  them  base  to  a great  extent,  the  orders 
they  give  in  the  Foochow  and  other  China  tea  ports. 
There  is  therefore  another  side  to  the  question 
of  over-estimates  affeoting  London  prices.  Of  course 
it  must  be  the  desire,  as  it  is  indeed  the  duty  as 
well  as  good  polioy  of  all  concerned,  in  every  way 
to  be  as  accurate  as  possible  in  their  estimates ; 
and  we,  at  least,  have  shown  in  the  past,  a 
uniform  tendency  to  be  below  rather  than  over 
the  mark ; although  like  so  many  others  this  year, 
we  were  entirely  out  in  our  reckoning— very  much 
due  to  the  fact  of  our  being  out  of  touoh  with  the 
planting  districts. 
Our  correspondent’s  opinion  respecting  an  “ offi- 
cial estimate”  deserves  to  be  carefully  considered 
by  his  brother  planters. 
THE  INDIAN  TEA  CROP. 
In  all  probability  the  Indian  tea  crop  of  1892-98 
will  not  exceed  that  of  the  previous  season,  and  even 
the  most  sanguine  can  only  look  for  an  infinitesimal 
increase.  With  the  prices  that  were  ruling  at  the 
opening  of  the  season  such  a falling  off  in  the 
anticipated  increment  for  the  season  as  ten  millions 
of  pounds  would  have  meant  ruin  to  many  planters, 
but  fortunately  the  Home  market  during  the  past 
three  months  has  awakened  to  the  fact  that  the  supply 
from  India  will  be  far  short  of  that  anticipated, 
and  the  Ceylon  equally  deficient  and  China  showing 
its  annual  decline  in  export,  prices  have  risen.  The 
averages  realised  at  the  last  few  public  auctions  in 
Galoutta  must  have  gratified  Managers  as  well  as 
Shareholders.  It  may  be  said  that  the  rise  in  price 
has  more  than  compensated  for  the  falling  off  in  out- 
turn, and  that  prospeots  for  the  coming  season  are 
brighter  than  they  have  been  for  several  years  past. 
The  supply  of  tea  is  oertainly  not  equal  to  the  de- 
mand, and  stooks  at  home  will  be  depleted  before 
the  next  crop  can  be  placed  on  the  London  market. 
In  former  years,  when  Oeylon  had  not  entered  the 
arena  as  a serious  competitor,  the  prospects  would  have 
been  more  than  bright,  but  with  this  vigorous  competi- 
tion the  spring  season  at  home  is  no  longer  what  it 
was  for  Indian  planters.  The  new  Ceylons  now  reach 
the  London  market  at  the  very  time  when  India  is 
barely  beginning  manufacture  for  the  new  seasoD, 
and  of  necessity  it  will  benefit  first  from  the  depleted 
state  of  the  Home  market.  But  India  must  also 
gain  with  every  maund  of  tea  sent  forward  early  in 
the  season.  Ueder  the  circumstances  the  question  of 
pruning  will  occupy  the  serious  attention  of  the 
planter  during  the  next  two  months,  for  he  must 
know  that  as  he  prunes  so  he  will  reap,  either  early 
or  late.  This  is  specially  true  of  those  parts  where 
the  China  plant  predominates.  The  fact  to  bear  in 
mind  is  that  in  the  coming  season  the  race  will  be 
to  the  swift,  and  the  advantage  will  rest  with  those 
who  get  their  teas  first  to  market.  Darjiling  and 
the  Duara  are  to  a certain  extent  favourably  situated 
in  this  respect. 
Although,  as  we  have  said,  the  heavy  pricea  that 
are  now  being  realised  will  more  than  compensate  for 
tho  shorter  outturn,  the  remark  must  be  (aken  in  a 
general  sense.  There  are  districts  such  as  the  Darji- 
ling Terai,  where  owing  to  the  ravages  of  a osqnito 
blight  no  rise  in  price  can  cover  the  disastrous  yield 
of  the  pr<  sent  season.  So  serious,  indeed,  is  the  situ- 
ation in  some  parts  that  there  is  nothing  for  it  but 
abandonment,  and  that  means  instant  ssciifice  of 
invested  capital.  In  many  instances  rota  third  of  the 
estimated  crop  has  been  gathered.  Mosquito  blight  set 
in  unusually  early,  and  with  its  appearance  many  gar- 
deus  ceased  to  yield.  It  is  no  exaggeration  to  say 
that  the  many  lakhs  of  rupees  that  have  been  apent 
in  opening  out  the  Darjilmg  Terai  have  been  prac- 
tically  thrown  away.  All  endeavours  to  deal  with  the 
blight,  have  been  unavailing,  and  in  many  instances  it 
has  been  decided  to  allow  the  garden  to  run  into  jungle 
for  a period  of,  say,  two  years.  So  far,  the  low  China 
plants  has  succumbed  tothe  attack  of  the  pest,  but  in 
some  cases  even  the  best  plant  has  begun  to  feel 
its  effects,  and  the  neighbouring  District  of  the 
Duars  has  this  year  found  it  spreading.  Mos- 
quito is  as  deadly  as  (he  leaf-disease  in  Ceylon 
aud  it  is  hut  poor  consolation  to  learn  that  other 
Districts  have  so  far  escuped  the  blight.  It 
would  surely  be  worth  while  if  the  Tea  Association 
were  to  secure  one  of  the  abandoned  gardens  in  the 
Teiai,  and  institute  at  the  general  cost  a series  of 
experiments  with  the  object  of  discovering  a cure  for 
the  disease.  This  very  blight  at  one  time  threatened 
Northern  Assam  with  ruin,  and  is  said  to  have  dis- 
appeared after  a few  years,  but  nothing  certain  is 
yet  known  as  to  the  causes  which  lead  to  the  sudden 
migration  of  this  terrible  pest.  It  is,  indeed,  lament- 
able to  see  a model  tea-garden,  otherwise  heal- 
thy and  well-cultivated,  and  to  know  that  every 
shoot  that  appears  is  doomed  by  this  plague.  An 
expert  is  now  in  the  country  from  the  Tea  As- 
sociaton  analysing  the  various  soils,  and  this  may 
lead  to  some  good.  But  so  far  his  services  have 
not  been  directed  to  the  Districts  where  blight  is 
so  prevalent,  and  which  is  now  on  the  point  of 
being  abandoned  wholesale.  Obviously  that  is  the 
point  to  which  the  investigations  of  the  expert 
should  be  directed,  for  it  is  the  latest  battle-field  upon 
which  this  pernicious  insect  has  inflicted  a serious 
reverse  upon  human  industry  and  enterprise. 
Englishman. 
- + 
THE  PROJECTED  QUININE  FACTORY  IN 
JAVA. 
We  are  indebted  to-one  of  our  friends  amoDg  the 
cinchona  planters  in  Java  for  a copy  of  a small  pam- 
phlet whioh  is  beiDg  circulated  to  the  bark-growers 
in  that  island  by  one  of  their  number,  and  in  which 
definite  proposals  are  sketched  for  the  establishment  of 
a quinine  factory  in  the  Preanger  district  (Western 
Java).  The  pamphlet  seems  to  us  to  contain  many 
