May  i,  1893.] 
THE  TROPICAL  AGRICULTURIST. 
V9 
COFFEE  TRADE  OF  1892  AND  PROSPECTS 
FOR  1893. 
The  position  of  coffee  has  become  of  great  interest, 
and  is  engaging  the  attention  of  the  trade  in  this 
country  and  abroad  to  an  unusual  degree.  As  bearing 
upon  the  situation,  we  present  some  facts  throwing 
light  on  the  movement  of  1892-93  and  the  outlook 
for  1893-94. 
The  following  table  exhibits  the  imports,  exports 
and  net  imports  or  consumption  of  coffee  in  the 
United  States  for  four  years  : — 
1889— Imports 
Exports 
Quantity, 
Pounds. 
491,441,003 
9,866,742 
Value, 
Dollars. 
84,378,649 
1,687,314 
Net  imports 
1890 — Imports 
Exports 
481,574,261 
548,008,838 
13,927,467 
82,691.335 
77,938,131 
2,274,411 
Net  imports 
1891 — Imports 
Exports 
534  081,371 
580,995,965 
- - 6,620,488 
75,663,720 
110,444,817 
1,119,297 
Net  imports 
1892 — Imports 
Exports 
574,375,477 
595,903,228 
11,540,115 
109,325,520 
136,557,692 
1,799,011 
Net  imports 
584,363,113 
134,758,681 
From  the  above  group  of  figures  and  from  stock  as 
reported  by  Smith  and  Schipper  and  the  coffee  ex- 
change, for  the  six  Atlantio  ports,  and  by  R.  Hock- 
lofer  and  C.  E.  Bickford,  for  the  Pacifio  coast,  we 
have  the  following  statement: — 
Tons. 
8toeks,  Dec.  31,  1888 17.013 
Imports  in  1889 214,988 
..  ,,  1890 238, '<29 
„ 1891 25fi,418 
>,  „ 1892 260,876 
Total  supply,  four,  years 987,724 
Less  stqcks,  Dec  . 31  1892 25,057 
Consumption,  four  years. .. . 962  667 
Average  per  year 240,667 
For  the  year  1892  the  movement  was  as  follows,: — 
Tons, 
Stocks  Jan.  1st  1892 19,878 
Imports,  1892 260,576 
Total  supply,  1892.. 280,754 
Less  stocks,  Jan.  1st  1893 25,057 
Consumpiioa  in  1892 255,097 
The  above  shows  a consumption  in  1892  largely  in 
excess  of  1891,  and  15,030  tons  above  the  annual 
average  of  four  years,  and  that  in  spite  of  high  cost. 
Messrs.  James  Oook  & Co.  report  the  deliveries  for 
oonsnmptioD,  in  Europe,  as  follows  : — 
1889  ...  399,204 
1890  ...  400,757 
1891  ...  420,106 
1892  ...  422,801 
Total  four  years  1,642,868 
Average  per  year  410,717 
„ „ United  State j (our  figures)  240,667 
Average  Europe  and  United  Stat.-s  651,384 
The  above,  on  the  basis  of  seventeen  bBgs  to  the 
ton,  shows  an  average  annual  consumption  in  Europe 
and  the  United  States,  of  11,073,528  bags,  and  this  ia 
f-iirly  correct.  Last  year  the  consumption,  based  on 
onr  table  f >r  1892  and  Cock  & Co.’s  for  Europe,  ab- 
sorbed 11,534,466  bags  ; according  to- James  Cook  & 
Co.’s  tables  for  Europe  and  the  United  States, 
11,768,747  bags.  We  may  Faitly  estimate  from  the 
above  group  of  figures,  which  include  the  Paoifio 
coast  movement,  that  Europe  and  the  United  States 
must  have  not  less  than  11,500,000  to  11,750,000  bags 
to  meet  1893  requirements,  and  this  for- 
bids any  increase  in  consumption  over  1892. 
This  ought  to  be  cor  siderable,  in  view 
of  the  World’s  Columbian  Exposition  and  the 
unequaled  prosperity  of  the  country.  The  fear  of 
cholera,  prevalence  of  strikes  and  a drawback  to 
trade  and  commerce  from  changing  political  conditions 
rnav  tend  to  hold  consumption  steady  or  reduce  its 
volume.  These  factors  make  coffee  a good  article  for 
specula'ion  and  brmg  into  prominence  all  informa- 
tion as  *0  the  position  ard  condition  of  nrop«. 
In  1892  the  Empire  of  Brazil  cleared  7,014,000  bags 
of  Rio  and  Santos  coffee  to  Europe  and  the  United 
States,  which  quantity  represents  nearly  two-thirds 
of  the  actual  consumption,  or  63J  per  oent  of  11,500,000 
bags  actually  consumed. 
In  March,  1892,  W.  Schoffer  & Co.  gave  it  aR  their 
opinion  that  Rio,  Santos  and  Pahai  would  give  a 
maximum  export  of  7,000,000  bags  ; others  estimated 
7 425,000  bBgs.  An  official  statement  from  the  Minis 
ter  of  Finance  to  the  Bureau  of  American  Re- 
pub’ics  makes  the  exports  from  Rio,  Santos  end 
Victoria,  for  the  year  ending  June  30.  1892,7,337,122 
bags.  This  Bbows  pretty  fair  estimates’  by  the 
Rotterdam  brokers.  With  the  huge  Brazil  orop  of 
1892,  the  visible  supply  of  the  world  Jan.  1,  1993, 
was  only  405,000  bags  larger  than  Jan.  1,  1892. 
Europe  shows  a trifling  gain  in  consumption,  a paltrv 
2,700  tons,  while  the  United  States  shows  an  increase  of 
about  15.000  tons  or  more  than  one-balf  the  increase 
reported  in  the  world’s  visible  supply. 
The  next  Brazil  crop  is  estimated  at  5,500,000  bags. 
The  Java  1893-94  crops  are  reported  as  showing  a large 
falling  off.  Reports  of  a decreased  yield  come  from 
the  Malaber  coast,  Manila  and  Colombia.  There  has 
been  an  extension  of  the  industry  in  Mexico  and 
CeD*ral  America,  but  the  new  plantations  are  notfar 
erongh  advanced  to  warrant  counting  upon  them  as 
likely  to  largelv  exceed  last  year’s  orop.  Porto  Rico 
and  Jamaica  will  have  a good  crop. 
Thepe  facts  are  sufficient  to  awaken  unusual  in- 
terests in  the  Rotterdam  estimates  of  this  apriDg 
end  to  cause  the  bears  considerable  anxiety. 
Definite  information  about  coffee  is  not  at  com- 
mand and  at  all  times  the  returns  are  imperfect. 
At  present  the  prospects  are  that  the  world’s  crops 
are  not  likely  to  yield  a supply  equal  to  last  year’s 
consumption  of  11,500,000  bags,  if  present  estimates 
of  the  Brazil  crop  are  anywhere  near  correct.  If 
the  Brazil  crop  turns  out  as  some  figure,  4,751,000 
bags,  then  the  supply  will  be  largely  below  last  year’s 
absorption.  To  mady  it  looks  like  another  year  of  high 
prices  and  big  consumption. 
Since  writing  the  above,  we  have  received  the  London 
Grocer  of  Feb.  lltb,  and  take  therefrom  the  following, 
hearing  upon  the  prospects  for  coffee  : 
COFFEE  AS  VIEWED  BV  THE  LONDON  “GROCEB.” 
“ Much  as  a return  to  lower  prices  ia  to  be  de- 
sired iu  the  interests  of  the  home  trade,  it  is  feared 
that  prices  of  coffee  wiH  continue  to  range  high 
for  some  time  to  come,  and  buyers  must  be  pre- 
prepared for  the  worst  if  they  do  Dot  wish  to  be 
placed  altogether  in  a disadvantageous  position. 
Although  stocks  in  Europe  are  belived  to  be  much 
heavier  than  they  were  in  February  last,  a circum- 
stance like  this  is  of  little  moment  when  weighed 
against  the  probability — yea,  almost  certainty — of 
failing  supplies  through  a deficiency  in  the  world’s 
orops  , and  while  the  disparity  between  the  quanti- 
ties proiuoed  and  those  consumed  exists,  no  re- 
lief from  the  present  strained  situation  of  the  ar- 
ticle oan  reasonably  he  expeoted.  What  renders 
the  maintenan'e  of  stiff  rates  for  coflee  an  almost 
foregone  conclusion,  is  the  f*ot  that  the  produc- 
tion generally  is  contracting  rather  than  expand- 
ing and  the  scarcity  complained  of  is  more  the  re- 
sult of  a prolonged  absence  of  supply  than  of  auy 
sudden  or  marked  increase  of  demand.  The  lat- 
ter, if  too  brisk  or  extensive,  might  be  kept  nnder 
efficient  control,  and  so  moderated  as  to  bring  it 
within  necessary  bounds ; but  over  the  aggregate 
supplies  from  different  countries  do  influence  can  be 
exeroised  beyond  that  of  repeatedly  advanomg  quota- 
