Feb. 2, 1003.] THK TROPICAL 
TEA IN 1903 : 
THE PROSPECT FOR WEATHER AND 
CROE'S ; 
EXPO UTS FOK 1902 AND ESTIMATES 
FOR 1903. 
The year, which has just closod, has not 
been a red letter one t'or the tea planter. 
Abnormally wet weather has been the main 
factor in the untoward result, and turther 
emphasis was supplied by a lon^ continuance 
of low prices. But that season is now behind 
us ; and with past experiences as a guide, our 
thoughts naturally turn to the opening 
year with its fresh hopes and probable 
possibilities, and we ask ourselves what the 
future months have in store for the 
premier culture of the island. A great deal 
depends on the weather, and how uncertain 
that is, goes without saying. And yet in 
this age of possible impossibilities, a new 
prophet, Mr. Hugh Clements, has arisen, 
with Mr. \Vm. Digby, c I.K., formerly of 
the Observer staff, as his mouth piece, who 
claims in the lal ter gentleman's work on 
" Natural Law in Terrestial Phenomena," to 
have found the secret to enable him to 
forecast the seasons. As Mr. Hugh Clements, 
however, will likely have all his time em- 
ployed in defending hia theoiy, and will not 
be available for the service of the Ceylon 
planters, we are forced back from the region 
of exact science to the land of incertitude 
and the rule of thumb. 
Mete -rol gists tell us that the longer it 
has rained the chances are that the longer 
it will r.iin ; and Ceylon has had its wet 
cycles, but happily also its dry ones. What 
a prospect we would have before us of 
soddenness and green mould if the rule 
mentioned a'nove was inviolable ! Happily it 
is not. Tropical agriculture his found its 
best interpretation rather in " the swing of 
the penduhun "; and the poet's saying -'all 
things will come round to those who wWl 
but wait," has been vividly illustrated in 
maiiy a pathetic story of planting life. Last 
year having bean a poor year for tea, we 
instinctively feel th.it this year should be 
better, and, given decent weather, we fe^-l .sure 
it ought to be. Tea is in good hearf, is healthy 
and free from blights, and wh.itever there 
may be in the idea that the flood-tide of 
production is past and increase by " leaps 
and bounds " only now to be a memory, 
to expect in 1903 such beggarly months as 
was November of last year, is, in planting 
circles, to anticipate the incredible. I'lanters, 
in submitting crop estimates, d<i not, as a 
rule, add a " d. v." to ihe tabulated figures ; 
but it is unconsciously done when Ih-y 
postulate a normal seison, a rule which 
the wise ones adopt. If jilanters could ap- 
pi'oximately forecast the weather, there 
would lie no necessity for the occurrence 
of shortage of estimites, nor the apologetic 
elofjuence which Chairmen of C.jnipa ues 
indulge in, in expl.uiation thereof. After 
so mujh rain, it is quite within the range 
of possibility, th it the pres Mit year may 
prove a dry one. In 1891 the rainfall in 
Colombo was 119 inches, and 1892 followed 
AGRICULTURIST. r,?.l 
with only 60 inches. If this should be 
duplicated this season, the tea crop might 
even suffer, and instead of the anticipated 
increased outturn, there would be re- 
ceding figures. High estates would gain 
through an excess of sunshine and 
a pa\icity o1 rain, and the reserved energy, 
which has so long been kept in check by 
the cold and wet, might burst out into ex- 
uberant flushing, and bring about a busy time. 
Medium and low places would, however, 
fall off, and as these properties are in the 
majority, a serious deficit might easily occur. 
It used to be held that it did not matter 
very much to have a period of poor returns, 
,is it was certain to be made up later on ; 
bat we are not sure that this idea obtains 
now to anything like the same extent that it 
did formerly, nay, the more general experi- 
ence is that it is a hard tasK to recover lost 
ground, and that the tea bush, unless stimu- 
lated by manures, has a horizon limited by 
today, and is pretty much unaffected by 
what was left undone yesterday, or the day 
before that. 
Anocher point to be considered in a specu- 
lative estimate of the coming season, is the 
Labour Question, which is too important to 
be over-looked. Granted a season of pressed 
down and overflowing measure, could it be 
effectively harvested by the present labourers 
at command ? For some time back there 
has been no high pressure from flush, which 
would have withdrawn all hands from other 
work, and yet spite of this slackness, our 
planting i-eport.s hint at work so necessary as 
pruning, being far behind on certain places, 
and other needs clamouring vainly for atten- 
tion. The estate, which is well supplied to- 
day with coolies, is somewhat exceptional, 
while the bulk of places— in many districts if 
not in all— rearister " short," or " very short," 
as the condition of the labour force. It is 
a kind of hand-to-mouth existence which, we 
fear, is the present condition of labour in many 
parts of the planting districts and while it 
may be possible to get along during the 
slack months in a kind of crippled and 
worrying way, a real good season -unless a 
deiermined effort be generally made to re- 
cruit new coolies, and gangs are strongly re- 
inforced— would be no blessing, except, per- 
haps that disguised kind which, the optimist 
always discovers, hidden somewhere under 
the shadows cast by disaster. If the squeeze, 
at present, were severer, there would be 
more hope of immediate action to relieve it ; 
but as it can be borne without much in- 
convenience the industry may drift into the 
future busy months badly equipped, unless 
planters wake up, and there may be later on, 
a real regret, when regret is unavailing. 
From the home side there is every reason 
to expect substantial returns for tea shipped. 
There are, of course, the large blending Com- 
p mies who charge solid, and with determina- 
tion to break down prices: but restiicted of- 
ferings in the London market, circumvent their 
selfish plans, and the l.iwof supply and dem.ind 
comes into free play and reflects itself in the 
markets' biddin":. The home outlook is very 
hopeful, and the regular trade circulars, 
which have been for so long a time, dreary 
