THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. [May 1, 190S. 
judiciously, and above all the real cause of the 
turn of events in their favour which a free and 
expanding trade in Calcutta with outside markets 
has brought about ; it will eacouiage them to 
give these markets every consideration. Much 
assistance is alfeo at hand in dealing with the 
ensuing year's outturn ; not only has Calcutta a 
rapidly growing constituency in all parts of the 
world whicli is ready to relieve London to an 
ever-increasing extent, if properly supported, 
but the manufacture of greeu tea will sensibly 
reduce the supply of black ; the irtluence of the 
Cess also, if it become law, will soon be manifest. 
In contemplating the approaching year's crop 
there is nothing to convey an impression that it 
will be a heavy one, beyond the assumption that 
two moderate yielding seasons are likely to be 
followed by one of abundance, or that growers 
will be persuaded by the advance in value to 
aim for quantity. The first named possibility is a 
distant one, and favourable weather will meet 
counteracting influences. Lean years and hard 
times through which the industry has been passiog 
have enforced a continued and rigorous cutting 
down of expenditure, which has had, and will 
have, its effect on cultivation and, in turn, on 
yield to a greater extent than is generally supposed, 
fcshort labour forces in past years will affect outturn 
in a similar manner, and it must be remembered 
that considerable areas have been abandoned. At 
the same time extensions coming into bearing 
are small and the plucking area is probably much 
about the same as last year. The second named 
possibility cannot be so definitely answered, but 
circumstances are in favour of moderation. It is 
quite recognised by producers that the turning 
of the corner, over a period of two years, has been 
brought about by care, as well as by weather 
and greatly assisted by the expansion of 
foreign markets, and it is also accepted that the 
situation can be easily disturbed from its present 
tendency which is so much in their favour. The 
position is appreciated, and a reasonable con- 
clusion is that it will be respected, The ensuing 
season can, therefore, be anticipated with much 
confidence. Prospects are exceptionally favourable 
from every point of view, and, with careful 
working in the districts and judicious handling 
in the markets, there is every reason to look 
forward to a prosperous year. 
WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH RUBBER? 
In view of the amount of rubber planting now in 
progress the question has been asked — and it is a 
very natural question— whether there is not danger 
of a new source of supplies being created, out of all 
proportion to the world's needs. In other words, 
whether the result may not be overproduction of 
rubber to a degree that will render the new plan- 
ting interest unprofitable. 
If the consumption of rubber were a fixed quan- 
tity, with a definite limit already reached, caution 
might be wise in the mafcter of providing new 
sources of supply. But this is not the case. The 
consumption of rubber in the United States alone 
has doubled within seventeen years, and from 
whatever standpoint the rubber industry may be 
viewed, it gives promise of a more rapid rate of 
expansion to come with the many new uses of 
rubber, the growth in population and the greater 
buying capacity of the people. The cousumiitiou 
has also become much greater in otlier lands, and 
there yet remains a large part of the world's 
population to become useis of rubber goods. With- 
in twenty years the production of 'Para' rubber 
has increased threefold, and meanwhile the present 
enormous supply from Africa has been developed. 
Yet such has been the increase in demand that 
prices have tended constantly upward, and market 
supplies are smaller today than for years past. 
The natural supply of rubber on the other hand, 
is limited. There is no longer any uuexplorea 
country in which rubber trees may be 
hoped to exist. There are forests known to 
contain rubber which have not yet been ' worked,' 
but these virgin fields are lessened in extent 
e/ery year. The gradual opening of new fields 
is offset in part by the exhaustion of old ones. 
It is true that, under the more intelligent super- 
vision now given to them, the existing rubber 
trees in Brazil and Bolivia, for example, may long 
be conserved. Still there must come a time when 
all existing natural sujiplies will be taxed to their 
utmost, and then, without new resources, the 
further growth of the rubber industry will be 
imp{>ssible. No date for this situation can be 
fixed, of course, but its imminence certainly appears 
to us to justify the planting of rubber. 
Several millions of rubber trees have been 
planted, thus far, but so recently that only a few 
thousand have reached a productive age. It is 
not reasonable to suppose that all the others will 
reaeh maturity, for the reason that rubber planting 
is a new interest, and as such liable to its share 
of failures. The addition to the world's supply 
of rubber from the existing plantations will be 
made gradually, as each year's planting begins 
to yield, and is likely to be required by the 
growing consuming demand. The same considera- 
tion will apply to such planting as may be done 
for a good many years to come. It must be re- 
membered that rubber can be cultivated successfully 
only within very restricted limits. The territory 
in which rubber might thrive is much wider, bub 
the natural conditions preclude undertakings there 
by outsiders, and render the collection of wild 
rubber so difficult as to make the cost of the 
product sometimes #2000 or more per ton. 
It must be expected that, ultimately, the success 
of rubber planting will result in lower prices, but 
not necessarily to the disadvantage of the planters. 
We have quoted Mexican rubber lately at 68 cents a 
pound, which means $1,500, gold, per metrical ton. 
If rubber planting is going to succeed at all, it is 
nob going to cost §l,i500 or half of it, to prepare and 
market a ton of products, and at much lower market 
rates there ought to be a good profit. At the same 
time every material decrease in the cost of rubber 
is bound to give a new impetus to consumption 
This page would not hold a list of the practical uses 
for rubber which are held in cheek today by the 
high cost of the raw material. But when people 
once become accustomed to a new use of rubber, in 
which they are encouraged at first by low cost, they 
do not give it up latter if obliged to pay more 
for the article. A reasonable expectation, therefore 
is that if rubber prices should, in time, be depres- 
sed materially from the present level, the effect 
will be such an increase in consumption as to 
check the fall and soon create an upward tendency. 
This sort of fluctuation may be the continual 
experience of future generations of rubber planters, 
but it is a consideration too remote for those who 
are engaging in the business today. 
