480 
THE TKOPICAL 
AGKICULTUEI6T. 
[Jan. 2. 1899. 
fore have sewed as^a great boon to the big blenders of 
packet teas and exporters ou Continental account, 
and, inquiries having gone on inceasing rather 
rapidly, subsequent purchases have been made at 
gradually hardening i>ateB." 
MonE FAvoi'iiABiE Statistics. — "In alluding to Ihe 
size of the present seoBon's crop of Inciian tea," says 
the Orocer, " we can tpeak in only geneial terms, 
as no detailed statement, giving the yield for each im- 
portant district under cultivation, has yet been received. 
The nearest approximation to what the total produc- 
tion is likely to reach is that contained in the 're- 
vised' estimates forwarded from Calcutta to the 
Indian Tea Association (London), which put the ag- 
gregate crop for 3898,99 at 154,000,000 lb. as con- 
trasted with a trifle over 148,000,000 lb. actually 
grown in 1896-97 and 1897-98. Of this season's crop 
it is reckoned that 136,000,000 lb. will be available 
for the United Kingdom, which is about 4,000,000 
lb. below what was originally estimated, and 
2,000,000 lb. more than in 1897 The Blatistical po- 
sition of the article, as at present, is thus repre- 
sented to be more favourable than it was at the 
beginning of the new season, and the improvement 
is mainly owing to the largely expanded shipments 
direct frem Calcutta to 'outside countries.' such as 
Australasia, America, Bombay, and sundry ports, 
which, from April 1st to September 30th Jlhe latest 
date named) embraced 8,099,100 lb. in comparison 
with 5,204,400 1b. last year, and 5,710,600 lb. in the 
year before. By these means, and the Additional 
demand from shippers that baa arisen here, the home 
market has been sensibly relieved of accumulating 
and excessive stocks, and prices instead of declining 
have been pointing towards recovery, a tendency 
which will probahly be maintained for acme time to 
come." — M- and 0- MaiL Nov. 25 
THE PRESENT POSITION OF THE 
TEA PRODUCING INDUSTRY. 
Totht Editor of the "Borne and Colonial Mail. " 
Sir, — Becent articles and correspondence in some 
of your contemporaries would indicate that there 
is at present a state of panic among tea estate 
shareholders and proprietors. An undue amount of 
importance is frequently attached to the ex cathedra 
utterances of editorial or epistolary anonymity, and 
I would suggest to those interested in tea property 
that it would be wiser to be guided by men who 
have spent a lifetime in connection with tea busi- 
ness rather than to be influenced by unknown 
contributors to newspaper columns. 
I have often admired the manner in which a profes. 
Bional pressman will go round and pick up information 
on a Bubiect of which he practically knew nothing pre- 
viously, Rud how remarkably well, in the main, he 
will make use of his facts ; still, a specialist in auy 
department of commerce can readily recognise the 
hand of the amateur, however, capable be may be 
in the literary way. It takes little practical know- 
ledge of tea matters to see that the Pall Mall Gae^ette 
vyriter has merely gathered together a fevs* out-of-date 
impressions to create an alarmist scare, which can 
serve no purpose today ; but which, if engineered four 
years ago, might have been of vslne to investors. 
He appears to be in communication with someone 
of the planter class in India, probably a man 
nnsuocessfal in his own line, and therefore unlikely 
to be in a condition to take a broad and general 
view of the position. 
There is, of course, something approaching to all 
crisis in the tea-producing industry, but having in 
view the comparatively large extent the business has 
now attained, the situation is nothing like so serious 
as during several prior crises. Men are still alive and 
active who saw tea-planting started in Assam, and 
who have witnessed its many fluctuations. The pre- 
sent position is that the old holders or original share- 
holders in companies which have not been recently 
recpnetrncteS oa an increastil capitalisation have seen 
the valae of their shares go back to something like 
the level current before the time of inflation. Kecent 
investors have seen a fall in what they subscribed 
for orbouchtat the top of the market. The general 
investor is much to blame for, a few years ago, runn- 
ing up the pi ices of preference and ordinary shares 
in tea companies to a level where the annual retam 
did not allow for tnch a set-back as is now being felt. 
Thenthe publicliave snbecribed freely ff r new ifsiies in 
companies, the avowed object of which was to 
plant larger areas of tea, and thus inereaee production. 
Many of those companies were carefully schemed 
out and judiciously planned, and have not yet 
suffered much in net revenue by over-production 
and consequent low prices. What ihey have t'Uffered 
from are the unforeseen contiugencies, for which in 
a semi-speculative business like tea-planting au 
ample allowance should always be made. Famine, 
drought, abnormal weather conditions generally, 
earthquake, labour expenses, and aboie all exechauge, 
are bo far responsible for more loss than are low 
prices. The almost continuous fall for many yeat-s in 
the level of exchange with silver-using countries gave 
a reasonable justification for the belief generally held 
until about two years ago, that only a check to the 
production of silver would stop the fall in the ex- 
change value of the rupee. Consequently, many 
people reckoned ou a lower, rather than a higher, 
level of exchange. Uow much this affects the posi- 
tion will be seen when it is known that the differ- 
ence in annual net income to the owners of all the 
Indian and Ceylon tea estates, as between exchange 
at its present level and at its lowest point, is about 
i'1,000,000, an amount which, if distributed in divi- 
dends now, would go a long way towards advancing 
share quotations to the highest ou record. 
The market prices of tea are undoubtedly lower 
than ever, but that was a result cleail}- foreseen by 
many, and only in keeping with the experience of 
the last twenty or thirty years. It was anticipatad 
and provided for in most cases by extensions which 
were designed to increase the yield, and so to main- 
tain tha net revenue. 
History has repeated itself in tea, as in other 
matters, and every general decline in price has been 
followed by an increased consumption. During 1898 
the increased oonsamption of Indian tea at home 
and abioad has been on a larger scale than ever 
before in the history of the industry, and there is 
no doubt now that within the year much more will 
be consumed than has be&n produced. There is little 
need to agitate for new makets. The largest and 
best of those have opened up themselves through 
the ordinary channels of trade, and every possible 
outlet in new directions is closely watched by prac- 
tical distributers eager to widen their connections. 
It is merely a question of price, and lower values 
have done more in the last twelve months to 
increase the sale than the efforts ol special missio- 
naries in as many years. The remarkable point 
about the increase is that it has taken place chiefly 
in quarters where no special efforts have been made 
— except by ordinary traders — to push British-grown 
teas. This fact may suggest to the associations in 
Calcutta and Colombo the advisability of withdraw- 
ing their commissioners and devoting their attention 
and funds in other directions. If they still con- 
sider it necessary te appeal for voluntary, or to 
collect forced levies, let them apply the money 
raised to some scheme having in view the improve- 
ment of quaUty, and the reduction of the quantity 
of inferior tea. 
The position is gradually modifying, as it has done 
beiore. Unprofitable estates, or sections of such, are 
being abandoned ; expenditure is being more closely 
watched ; greater efforts are being made to produce tea 
of good quality, with the result that there is seme 
reduction in the quantity made. The abnormal 
weather conditions referred to above have doubtless 
restricted yields, and there is much reason to ba 
thankful- One of the most serious risks ahead is that 
of a " bumper crop" coming simultaneously in India 
and Ceylon before the volume of consumption has 
advanced sufficiently to absorb easily the yield, 
