June 1, 1904.] THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. 
803 
These figores must be taken as approximations. 
I am not snre whether the cotton grown in China 
and Asiatic Russia ia accuiiitely accounted for in 
the earlier years. It must be remembered, too, that 
the bales vary iu weight, both according to localities 
and even iu the same locality. For instance, iu 1879, 
the American crop was 5,074,000 bales of 434 lb. 
each, whilst in 1903 it was 10,758 000 bales of 495 lb. 
each. Egyptian bales contain about 7C0 lb. of cotton 
each, and the crop increased from 254,000 bales in 
1879 to 825,0.0 bales in 1903. Bales of East Indian 
cotton weigh about 400 lb. each, and the crop in- 
creased from 1,543,000 bales in 1879 to over 3,000,000 
in 1903, whilst the production of cotton in the rest 
of the world, composed of many different varieties, 
increased from 167,000 bales in 1879, to 1,500,000 
in 1903. Mr. Hntton reduced the present crop of 
the world to bales of 5O0 lb, each, and gives the 
number as follows : — 
United States 11,000,000 
India 3,000,000 
Egypt 1,000,000 
Best of the world 1,000,000 
These figures are for an average crop, and are 
in substantial agreement with the other figures I 
have given. They show that the present annual 
production of cotton is about 8,000,000, OHO lb. It 
is abundantly evident that the tendency towards au 
increased demand for cotton is still growing, and 
it is calculated that in five years' time, 19,000,000 
bales of cotton will be wanted, and in 10 years, 
23,000,000 bales against a present production of only 
16,000,000. The question of whence this increased 
supply of cotton is to come is of importance to 
the world at large; but it is of greater and more 
vital importance to Great Britain than to any other 
country. Our total production of cotton goods is 
estimated at £90,000,000 to ^100,000,00'J. Of this 
amount, some £72,000,000 worth is sent abroad, and 
constitutes the greatest manufactured export trade of 
any kind of any country in the world. It is obvious 
that if this trade is to be curtailed by a short supply 
of cotton, the results to us will be very serious. 
There is yet a further consideration in relation to 
OUR VAST EXPORT TRADE IN COTTON 
manufactures. A sudden rise iu price hinders trade 
in every country, but its effect is much greater in 
countries in a lower state of civilization. Much of 
onr trade is done with Oriental or barbarous races 
who do not take kindly to increased demands on 
their slender means, whilst the export of cotton manu- 
factures to such races on the part of our competitors 
ia comparatively small. It is of the utmost import- 
ance, therefore, on account of the magnitude of the 
trade itself, on account of its great usefulness in 
helping to pay some of our bills by roundabout 
methods, and on account of our great export to 
uncivilized or semi-civilized races, that we should 
strain every nerve to increase supplies of the raw 
material, and so keep its price at a reasonable figure. 
The question now arises as to how this ia to be 
done. So far as our troubles arise from unbridled 
Bpecvilation, the best remedy that can be applied ia 
to smother the speculators in cotton, I have never 
seen any feasible plan for stopping speculation by 
legislation. Few speculators in raw material have 
died rich men, and paper bargains in cotton are as 
useful to the cotton spinner as to the speculator. 
The remedy for the short supply of cotton is the 
same aa that for the speculator. We want more 
cotton grown. 
This brings us to the consideration of What are 
the prospects of larger supplies from existing cotton 
fields, but, if I am not wearying you with figures, 
I want, first of all to put before you some detaile 
of the growth and distribution of the American crop. 
Yon will remember that out of 16,000,000 bales, 
America prodaoes 11,000,000, or approximately 70 per 
cent. There has been a great change in the distri- 
bution of this crop in recent years, as well as a 
great increase in the growth. The tntal distribution 
of the American crop for 1876-80 was 4,947,000 bales ; 
for 1886-90, 6,878,000 bales; for 1896-1900, 9,664.000 
bales ; and for 1901-3, 10,762,000. The distribution 
was as follows : — 
DISTRIBUTION IN PEBI0D8 OF THOUSANDS OF BALES. 
European 
Great and other 
Britian. ports. U.S.A. Total. 
1876 80.. 2,151 1,245 1,551 4,947 
1886 90.. 2,836 1,784 2,258 6,878 
1896-1900 2,944 3,310 3,410 9,664 
1910 03.. 2,978 3,600 4,184 10,762 
The above Table shows that England is using a 
much smaller portion of the American crop than was 
the case years ago. 
The tendency on the part of the United Kingdom 
to use a small proportion of the American crop is due 
not only to the increase of spindles in the Southern 
States of America and on the Continent of Europe, 
as well as in Japan, Canada, and Mexico, but also 
to the fact that we now spin much finer yarns than 
we did some years ago, and use a good deal more 
Egyptian cotton. The American spindle spina 
about 90 lb. of cotton per annum, the spindle of the 
European continent 70 1b, and that of Great Britain 
34 lb. Perhaps I may give at this point the number 
of spindles running in Great Britain, the Continent, 
United States of America, India, and other coantriea 
in 1895, 1899, and 1903;— 
1895. 1899. 1903. 
Gt. Britain.. 45,400,000 45,500,000 48,000,000 
Continent ..28,200.000 32,500,000 34,000,000 
U.S.A 16,100,000 18,300,000 22,000,000 
India 3,800,000 4,700,000 5,000,000 
Others ... — — 3,600,000 
Total 93 500,000 101,000,000 112,000, 000 
There are three observations to be made on thia 
Table. First, the spindles of " other countries were 
not all started between 1899 and 1903, but I have 
not accurate details of the earlier period. In the 
second place, the growth of spindles in India haa 
been materially checked during recent yeara ; and 
in the third place the growth of spindles in Great 
Britain has shown a greater increase in the last 
period than those on the Continent. It should be 
added that the increaae in the United States of 
America is mostly in the Southern mills. 
The danger of our dependence on American sources 
of supply is twofold. In the first place, if the in- 
crease in the Southern mills is to continue, a noint 
which is somewhat in doubt, and about which 1 
cannot speak with certainty, the demand for the 
market of the United Kingdom must become a more 
and naore negligible factor. In the second place, 
unless the supply of American cotton is greatly 
augmented, we shall continue to be more or less 
in the hands of speculators. 
I come now to the possibility of 
INCREASED SUPPLY FROM EXISTING SOURCES, 
In reference to the United States of America, I 
am quite unable to forecast what may be done in 
the future, either in the direction of the increase of 
the total production, or of the proportion of that 
production which will be available for our use. There 
are two considerations to be borne in mind aa 
regards the increase of production, firstly, whether the 
acreage of the crops is likely to be greatly augmented 
and, secondly, whether the growth per acre will 
show any material change. My opinion on the ques- 
tion of acreage must be tiken for what it is worth 
for reports are very contradictory. .Judging by the 
paat, I am inclined to believe that the acreage will 
be increaeed. 
