Aug. I, 1901.] THE T-ROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. 
107 
SUNSPOTS AND CLIMATE : 
J. NORMAN LOOKYER ON THE 
RECENT "SUNSPOT; 
ITS BEARING- ON LOCAL * 
METEOROLOGY. 
Sir J. Norman Lockyer first took an active 
interest in the climate of India and the ap- 
plication of the Sunspot and Rainfall Cycle 
theory, when ne came out to ihe East to 
observe the Eclipse of 1871, In a long paper 
to Nature of December !2th, 1872, on the 
"Meteorology of the Future," the, distin- 
guished Astronomer mentioned how. while 
preparing to go to India, he got valuable 
intorniation from the editor of the Ceylon 
Observer (the late Mr. A. M. Ferguson) who 
happened to be in London, -as to the time of 
year at which the monsoons broke up in the 
island. " Nor was this all ; he added " — said 
the Astronomer— " that everybody in Ceylon 
recognised a cycle of about 13 years or so in 
the intensity of the monsoon, that the rain- 
fall and cloudy weather were more intense 
every 13 years or so. This, of course, set one 
interested in solar matters thinking ; and I 
said to him : ' But are you sure the cycle 
recurs every 13 years? Are you sure it is not 
every 11 years ?'— adding as a reason that the 
sunspot period was one of II years or there- 
abouts and that, in the regular weather of 
the tropics, if anywhere, this should come 
out." 
Our senior sent us out an account of his 
conversation with Mr. Lockyer, as he was 
then, and on our publishing it in the Observer, 
the late Mr. R. B. Tytler— who in his too dry 
IDumbara Valley paid great attention to 
Meteorology— wrote to us to point out that Mr. 
Lockyer was right, that the cycle period in 
Ceylon was one of 11 years— hve or six years 
dry and five or six years wet— although oc- 
casionally thirteen years might more accu- 
rately represent local experience. This state- 
ment was sent to Mr. Lockyer who at once paid 
special attention to our local records, getting 
also corroborative returns from Mr. Meldrum 
of Mauritius, from Brisbane and Addaide, 
and later from Madras and the Cape. These 
he worked up in a paper for Ncdnre on "The 
Meteorology of the Future." Recognising the 
eleven-year cycle, he declared that the true 
cause had yet to be discovered and for this two 
things were necessary : an accurate knowledge 
of the currents of the sun, and, secondly, of 
the currents of the earth. Photography and 
Spectrum Analysis were necessary for the 
former and for the latter the pursuit of 
Meteorology as a physical science. 
Ever since that time, now thirty years ago, 
we have, in our 'Ceylon Plandbook and 
Directory," endeavoured, in our " Meteoro- 
logical,' to meet the requirements of the 
'.' Director of Solar Physics," so far as the 
maintenance of local statistics and observa- 
tions is concerned. The dates of the advent 
of successive monsoo'ns and of the annual 
rainfall are complete for well-nigh fifty years 
and we have had Mr. Archibald analysing 
the same with a view to shew the close con- 
nection between the Sunspot Cycle and the 
advent and magnitude of the Monsoon. The 
subject iS) of course, of far more practical im- 
portance to India— so often the scene of famine 
— than to Ceylon ; but it is not without a o-ood 
deal more than theoretical interest eve'n iji 
this favoured island. For, in respect of 
coconut and paddy cultivation (as well as a 
good deal of fruit and root culture in cer- 
tain districts,) a poor monsoon or a dry 
season makes a world of difference. 
We cannot say, however, that much pro- 
gress has been made daring the past thirty 
years in arriving at the results desiderated 
by Sir Norman Lockyer in 1872. But that 
gentleman has never lost his interest in a 
subject which is. of course, so closely related 
to his daily work as the "Director of Solar 
Physics Observatory, South Kensington " ; 
and in Black and White of June loth, we 
find an illustrated article headed " The 
Dream of a Great Scientist : what a Sunspot 
may mean for the human race." The vete- 
ran Astronomer is a firmer believer than 
ever as to the relation uf solar influence 
upon terrestrial meteorology, and he has 
even now gone so far as to express the hope 
that, in a few years' time, meteorologists 
will be able, as the resvdt of observation 
of solar phenomena, to predict the time, 
and even perhaps the place, in India, in 
which famine may be expected, so enabling 
precautions to be taken against loss of life; 
and that they will also be able to give 
warning of high and low floods in Egypt. 
Of more immediate importance is the fol- 
lowing statement made in the course of 
this interview :— 
The suDspot observed lately he regards as of 
the greatest importance. "It shows us, beyond all 
question, I thiuk," he informed the writer, "that 
tlie minimum is past. And that is a very import- 
ant matter. It is very remaikable that a spot ia 
the minimum period, apparently the first spot of a 
new cycle, should be of such magaitude. We are 
working at it, but cannot say anything definite for 
the moment. It will take some time before any 
certain prosouncemeut can be made, but it looks 
very much as if it will enable us to fix the period of 
the minimum,^ which before was uncertain to a ^6ar. 
If we can fix that, it will be very helpful for 
subsequent work." 
We take it that, in saying " the minimum 
is past," Sir Norman Lockyer means the 
period of dry or short rainfall years, more 
especially in India. We have not the figures 
of rainfall for the Central or North- West 
Provinces of India before us as we write ; 
and the Madras Presidency has had no 
trouble with fatnine or short crops of late 
years, or. a study of our meteorological re- 
turns might be of interest. But, as a matter 
of fact, in respect of Colombo at least, our 
rainfall is more distinguished for alternate 
years of heavy and light returns than for 
the periodicity of the larger cycles of dry 
and wet years. Thus, beginning with 1880j 
we get the following alternation :— - 
Year, Eainfall Year. Rainfall 
inches. inches. 
1890 ... 72-80 1895 92'23 
189 L ... n9-U3 ISat) .„ 101-06 
1892 ... 69 83 1897 ... 82 73 
1893 .. 89 67 1898 ... 103-11 
1894 ... 77-46 1899 ... 73-48 
1900 ... 83 68 
It will be seen that 1896 breaks the alter- 
nation and a new series then begins, althQugU 
