February i, 1892.] THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. 577 
. THE ESTIMATED. CEYLON TEA CROPS 
OF 1892 AND 1893; WITH A GLANCE 
AHEAD AT A.D. 1900. 
A remonstranoa has reached U3 regarding our 
mention of 95,000,000 of poundB ag the possible 
yield of 1892 ; and we may at onoe say that, writiug 
hurriedly, we misoalculatod. An estimate of 
85,000,000 would bo the safer, but we should not 
be at ail surprisod to see a crop ol 90 000,000 
made up, in the shapa of 89,000,000 exp;rted and 
one million oonsumed looa'iy. We are told that 
our high figures are calculated to produce a panic, 
juat as we- usA to be told, in thadays of advancing 
coffee crops thutour sanguine fiKui-es, which generally 
tui-ned out to be correct, wera inimioiil to the 
intereatq of planters. We must say now, as we 
said then, that our simple duty is to state the 
truth as closely as the circumstances and conditions 
within our ken enable us to ascertain it. Mr. 
John Ferguson, in his able and exhaustive 
review of • the tea trade in ibe latest issued 
Directory, wrote : " But too little has hitherto 
been made of the future production of Coylon. 
Even we a year ago blamed a well known 
Colombo merchant for making known in the 
City of London his opinion that in four or five 
years Ceylon would be exporting a hundred 
million pounds of tea! He ia likely ti prove a 
true prophet by present (August 1890) appearances." 
The writer of the above, who hn.d so clojely 
predicted the crops of 1890 and 1891 at 46 and 
G8 millions of pounds respectively, and who 
had adduced dati ,o conviooiug of the con- 
tinuance of inori^ases by leaps and bounds 
for at least the first five years of the present 
deoade, seems to have recoiled from the results 
of the evidenca be had so carefully colleotei, and 
he threw forward the realization of the round figure 
of 100 millions of pounds to 1895. Looking at 
his own statenieats of a quarter of a million of 
acres under tea in 1890, of which a considerable 
proportion wa; rapidly coming into full b?arir.p, 
while much of the old co^ee lands were yielding 
returns far in excess of oalaul itions, — looking also 
at the actual advances made, year by year (while 
making allowance for the abnormal flush of 1890), 
we are forced to the conviction that the era cf 
the round 100 millions njust be antedated by two 
years. We estimate 85 millions of pounds for 1892 
and 100 millions for 1893. Noletis than 66,000 acres 
of the quarter million under tea in August 1890 were 
planted in the period extending from July 1888, and 
much (most indeed) of this tea will come into full 
bearing by 1893, while the araa of 181,000 acres 
planted previously to 1888 will have reached full 
maturity and will be yielding full returns. 
Mr. John Ferguson's calculalion was that the 
additions to the half million of acres 
under tea in 1890 wore likely to be at the rate 
of 6,000 acres par annum. These additions we 
leave out of view, and taking a fair average for 
the yield of our tea land, — the returns from which 
are in some caaos o:ily 250 lb. per acre, while 
in a very oonaid-?rable number of cases they are 
equal to a yield risii'g from 500 to 1,000 lb. per 
acre,— taking a fair average, we any, which we reckon 
at 100 lb. per acre, the round 100 millions will 
be exactly madn np in 1893. The careful researches 
of the corapilor of the Diroctory compfilleJ him, 
after making all possible a lowaaccF, to rocognize 
40Olb. per aon of mature tea as the yield of 
this hot moist colony. And although his revised 
OBtimatos for 1890 and 1891 were almost ab- 
olutely correct, ho waa forced to confuaa : " It 
ill bo soen that our estimatea of a year ago 
for 1890 and 1891 were far below the mark: iho 
present year his, in fact, in crop bearing exceeded 
a'l expectations. It has shown that tea on ohi 
coffee land, after six or seven years, yields fai: 
more leaf than was anticipated." Ho acaordingly 
revised his estimates to 63 millions for 1891, which 
are almost exactly the figures in the Chamber of 
Commerce return. With commendable caution he 
gave 80 millions for 1892 and 90 millions for 
1893. Our estimates, therefore, of 85 milliona for 1892 
and the round 100 millions for 1893, are not, we sub- 
mit, considering all the circumstances, extravagant. 
Of course, our estimates might be somewhat 
affpcted by the extensive or universal adoption 
cf finer pluoking than now prevails ; but supposing 
there is no material change in this respect let us 
see what inferences we are justified in deducing 
for the future from the experience of the imme- 
diate i)ast. We have shown that the rate of 
increase in our crops is not at all likely to 
diminish up to 1893. What have the rates been 
since 1881 when our exports (wo take the customs 
figures,) reached 2,392,000 lb. ? Next year the export 
very nearly doubled, the figures being 4,372,000. 
This was an increase of very nearly 60 per cent. 
The increase to 7,819,000 lb. in 1876 was not so 
great. Then cfkme an increase nearly at the same 
rate, the figures for 1887 biiag 13,834,000 lb. 
Then came a diminished rats of increase, the 
figures for 1888 being 23,820,000 lb, an excess 
of 10 millions over the previous year. A some- 
what larger rate of increase marked 1839, the 
figures being 34,345,000, an increase of lOJ millions. 
There was a still larger advance in 1890, to 
45,799,000 lb, an increase of nearly llj millions. 
Finaily the figures ros^ to 67,000.000 in I89I, an 
increase over the previous year of no less than 
19 millions. Conceding that this latter oafs ia 
exciptional, f.nd t.king 15 millions as the rate 
of increase for this year an 1 the next, respectively, 
we get total crops 
For 1892 82,000,000 lb 
„ 1893 97,000,000. ,, 
An annual increase of 15 millions on the much 
higher figures is so much lower a percjntaga 
than previous increases of 10 and 11 millions 
ou the smaller quantifies of previous years, 
that we suspect the increases will really be 
greater and fully make up our revised estimates 
of 85 millions for the present year and 100 millions, 
for 1893. If readers admit, as we think they 
must, that our estimates are founded on indisputable 
evidence, connected v, ith spacially favourable 
conditions of soil and climate which are as likely 
to bo operative in the immediate future as they 
have b_ea in the immediate past, the strongest 
possible case will bo made out not only for con- 
tinuing but for indefinitely extending the efforts 
made to open new markets for our teas. 
We have shown reasons for expecting a largely 
increased production this year and the next in the 
fact of the whole 250,000 acres under tea in August 
1890 attaining maturity and full or nearly full 
bearing in the course of the two years. In years 
subsequent to 1893, we have reason to look for a 
considerably diminished rate of increase say to 
about 7 millions per annum, which would make 
the export of Ceylon tea as nearly as possible 150 
millions in the last y; ar of this nineteenth century. 
So much will depend en continued and expanded 
demand at remunerative prices. Such conditions 
granted, we believe our figures represent the very 
minima of results. — If our reasoning is wrong let 
the fallacies be pointed out, but there is no use 
iushutting our eyes to the inevitable effects on lea 
of our epeuially forcing climate and fairly fertile boil. 
If our vatioinatioDS ate fulfilled, and a crop of 100 
