824 
THE TROPId^L AAftlCULTURfST 
[Mat 2, 1892. 
of the mnltitude of connsellors and prophets anxious 
to Serve bb guides to the would-be investor renders it 
exceedingly diflBcult for that over-protected individual 
to judge the metits of each one, especially as the 
advisers eeldom agree in their opinionp, or even 
in their facts. A remarkable instance of this 
Want of _ agreement is shown in three expressions 
of opinion on the prospective supply of cin- 
chona which reach us almost siranltaneously from 
different sources. The writers are all practical plan- 
ters and anxious, apparently, to state what they 
conceive to be truth. One, Baron v. Rosenberg, of 
Devioolom, Madras, addresses the editor of this joarna! ; 
another, Mr. Anton Eeesler, of Garoet, Java, writes 
to a planter friend in Ceylon, who has handed the 
letter to the "Oeylon Times;" and the last, Mr. 
WinninR, a well-known Dutch-Indian cinchon» au- 
thority, contributes an article to a review published ia 
Java. These three authorities, each, it would seem 
unaware of the other's intentiono, were moved to 
write _ their impressions about six weeks ago. Mr. 
Winning, among a number of other statements, opines 
that in 1892 Java will ship 3,300,000 kilo?. ; in 1S93, 
3,500,000 kilos. ; and in 1894, 3,800,000 kilos, of bark 
— the highest of these figures Ijeing below her ship- 
ments of 1891 ; and he proceeds to build up elaborate 
calculations upon the assumption that the average 
quinine percentage of the Java bark will remain 
stationary at 4 per cent. Continuing his argument 
npon these lines, Mr. "Winning comes to the con- 
clusion that we are at this moment faced by an 
output of quinine insufficient for the world's require- 
ments, his estimates of the total quinine produc- 
tion from all sources being: — For 1892, 226,500 kilos.; 
for 1893, 225,500 kilos. ; and for 1894, 228,500 
kilos. Mr. Winning's figures have been promptly 
seized by quinine manufacturers and others for com- 
mercial purposes; and it is to be hoped, for the sake 
of those who may become victims to their allurements, 
that they will pan oat aright. 
Then oomes Baron v. Rosenberg, who, in the letter to 
which we have referred, takes credit, more in sorrow 
than in anger, for having prophesied truth four years 
ago, thongh his truths were of such evil purport that 
no one would listen to them. Tbe Dutchman, Mr. 
Kessler, too, lifts his voice as an unappreciated Cas- 
sandra. Listen to his admonitions to his planting 
friend in Ceylon : — 
" You have left cinchona and run across to te^. I 
think you were right, for cinchona is looking very 
like a wreck, and may prove one even if Java be left 
alone with it. You may recollect that I prophesied 
in 1887 what wo nre now experiencing. Your people 
did not believe me, and some of them may have 
thought I was "doing them." But I knew I was not 
and advised your people to root up their cinchona 
when the unit was at 4d ; they must now own that 
I gave them good advice." 
"And what will the future be ? Our bark in Java 
average cow from 4 to 4^ per cent, and will average 
about twice as much some years hence, for ve ate 
doing our best to oultivftte high-class barks. We export 
6i million kilos now, aid will go on increasing ; you 
may calculate for yourself what this meaus. Very 
little is beard of estates that will bo abHndoned., 
though there are some, and most estates cinnot culti- 
vate any other produce well on account of their situ- 
ation, the restrictions of their lease, or becaufe their 
abarebolders do not care to embark into something 
new which might swallow more money in case of failure.- 
Ho most people stick to the old thing in hopes of 
killing out their weaker neighbours or that bettor times 
may oome. 1 myself doubted of their early arivf i.t, 
and rooted up iiOO acres, which is now uuder coffee." 
So far Mr. Kcss'er. It will be seen at once that 
he and Mr. Winning cannot both be correct, and 
Baron v. lloHetiberg is more or lots at issue with (he 
two. One comfort is that, though utterly at variance 
as regar.ls the futuro, "I told you so," is the harmoniom 
burden of thr-ir songB where thoy treat of the past. 
Baron v. Itosooberj^ thinks that a largo proportion 
of the Java b»rk is below the paying point of rich - 
nana, and he infers that tlie poorer plantatious in the 
island must bo in process of uprooting if they have 
not already ceased to exist. Ijpon this point Mr. 
Kessler contradicts him flatly, and even goes so far 
as to assrt, that in a few years Java bark will 
average 8 to 9 per cent, of quinine, while the quantity 
shipped, weight for weight, will go on increasing also. 
This statement is in accord with the reports from 
our Amsterdam correspondent which we published 
over four years ago. While wo are calling attention 
to the various diecipies of Old Moore who are rais- 
ins? their voices at tl.is m'ment, it may not be out 
of place to recall the fact that we ton, in a modest 
way, have occasionally ventured upon a bit of horo- 
scope-casting. On December l7th, 1887, we wrote, in 
commenting upon the statement of our Amsterdam 
correspondent that orders fr r the planting of 300,000 
exceptionally rich trees had been sent to Java : — 
"It is quite possible that within a couple of years 
Java will absolutely dorainate the cinchona market 
....Oejlon planters will do well, therefore, to ask 
themselves seriously whether they have any prospect 
of holding their own aeainst such cornpetition as., 
is looming near at hand." 
But to return to the three " planting prophets.'' 
Baron v. Rosenberg, when recently in Ceylon, was 
assured that if every tree in that island were np- 
rooted perhaps 3,000,000 lb. of bark might be crop- 
ped, with which the production would be finished 
entirely. If that statement be true, all the Oeylou 
authorities and most of the leading London importers 
and brokers are hopelessly at sea in their estimates. 
Baron v. Rosenberg believes that Oeylon and India 
" will both again decreaee their shipments this year." 
So far as India is concerned, that view also is not ac- 
cepted by the leading representatives of the cinchona 
initustry in Linden, though probably our correspondent, 
who is an Indian planter hinifelf, has better means of 
ju Iging on this point than others. 
In the face of all these contradictory opinions the 
wisest course would seem to be — let the future take 
care of itself ; but that is a course whifh will certainly 
not be received with Approbation by the large majority 
of those who spend a great part of their days in cal- 
culating, from imperfect data, the chances of a rise or 
fall in the quinine market. 
Prophete reohts, Propbete links 
Das Weltkind in der Mitten, 
saysGoethe. The unfortunn'e world-child who hap- 
pens to be fioaiicially interei '( 1 in bark or quinine is 
tormented by tbe doubt which of the rival prophets he 
shall follow ; and, needless t3 say, his choice fall.«, in 
almost every cssa, upon the one whose views coincide 
most nearly with his own hopes of gain. Thongh no 
one can compute even approximately the sum to'al of 
brain-power epent upon vain calculations of what the 
future holds in its lap, two things are to'.prab'y certain : 
first, th»t the energy misspent upon such calculations, 
if directed to the solution of any problem likely to 
advance the interests of mankind, would bring lasting 
reno>vn to the mathemHticians engaged in it; secondly, 
that if, peradventure, the hopes and estim ites of any 
speculator should be realised to the full, that indivi- 
dual, instead of preparing to enjoy at ease the fruits of 
his foresight, will immediately commence to worry his 
soul afresh, and to destroy the remnants of his digestive 
organs with a new set of calculations «bout what is to 
happen five or six years further ahead, and risk hia 
money upon the realisation of that freili set of cal- 
culations. — Chemist and Drue/gist, Feb. 20th. 
MORE FACTS ABOUT PRECIOUS STONES. 
The following is from the American Exporter. 
We seem to have missed ths first aitiole rtferred 
to, but it will probably turn up: — 
Last month we considered briefly the constitution 
and value of the foiu- leading ornamental gems, viz., 
tho diamond, the ruby, the sapphire and the emerald ; 
and we noticed in passing, also, a few stones of the 
cbrysoberyl family, allied to the emerald or beryl group. 
We have now to consider the subordinate gems, of 
the second and third classes, and first let us enu- 
