September i, 1890.] 
THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST, 
161 
THE PEOSPECTS OE QUININE AND 
CTNCITONA EAEK. 
The figures we published a few weeks ago 
indicating the steadily increasing exports of cin- 
chona bark from Java, created a very unfavourable 
impression locally and not a few have been heard 
to say that there is little use now in anticipating 
better times or a better price for bark. Without 
doubt Java is fast assuming the position lately 
held by Ceylon as arbiter and controller of the 
bark market. Her richer barks, averaging double 
those of Ceylon in quinine, are now being shipped 
to the extent of from five to six million lb. per 
annum. And if we are to believe our latest visitor. 
Dr Wilson, there is no prospect of her export 
felling ett' for a good many years to come. At 
the same time, it is quite a question whether the 
total supply of Bark for the next few years 
will be equal to the World’s demand, unless prices 
rise sufficiently to warrant the harvesting of bark 
from indigenous trees in South Amer'can forests, 
The exports from Ceylon are unmistakably falling 
back year by year ; those of India are at best sta- 
tionary — indeed they have also lately fallen off. 
Wild bark from America has ceased to come 
toward save in the better alisayas, apart from 
the Bolivian bark from cultivated trees The total 
result therefore even making allowance for an in- 
crease of Java bark is far from discouraging to 
cinchona planters Supposing that Java this year 
supplies Sif million lb. 4 per cent bark, Ceylon 7^ 
million lb. of 24 per cent, and India 14 million lb. 
of 2 per cent bark, we only get the equivalent 
of million ounces of quinine, while the consump- 
tion is likely to be in excess beyond what the 
American bark can make up, not counting the 
quantity of bark required for other purposes 
than quinine. 
As regards consumption, Mr. John Hamilton in 
1888 estimated ihat 9 million ounces would bo 
required in 1892, the demand increasing annually 
by 10 per cent. But last year’s experience — owing 
a good deal to the influenza epidemic and the 
cheapness of quinine — showed an advance much 
beyond the estimate. The United States last year 
increased her imports largely ; the fipurt s being 
for 1888 imports 1,904,206 oz. : 1889=2,245,941 oz„ 
while five months of 1890 saw an import of 
1,611,000 oz. , or at the rate of at least .3,200,000 oz. 
for the year. All this apart from over a million 
ounces manufactured annually at Philadelphia, 
With the world’s consumption at 9 million oz 
7iext year (in place of in 1892), we cannot see 
where the bark is to come from for more than 
7'1 million oz., unless the price per unit goes up 
considerably. We believe there is a general im- 
pression that before the end of this year there will 
be a considerable change for the better, and although 
with Java overshadowing us, there is no room for 
“ great expectations ” being encouraged among the 
Ceylon bark holders, still we eunnot but think 
that at least a better time is approaching and that 
we have touched the lowest depth in quotations. 
So far our view of the near future’s on the basis 
of the laws of supply and demand end a normal 
market. But what are we to say it the following 
story published in the Chemht and Druggist be 
correct ? It contains, at any rate, a very curious 
revelaiioD. The contrsets referred to are, of course, 
perfectly legitimate, but undoubtedly the system 
is one-sided and enables the manufacturer to say, 
in cfl'ect, to the producer : — “ Heads I win ; tails 
you lose.” The question is. Can any number of [ 
the Java cinchona planters have lent themselves 
to such one sided and damaging contracts ? 44'e 
quote as follows : — 
Quinine BIanufactouies Depeeciating Quinine. 
Mr. H. A. Van Overzee, jnn., cinchona broker, of 
Amsterdam, sends us the following notes on the subject 
of the depression in the price of cinchona bark. 
Some years ago, when the Amsterdam market began 
to gain importance, there were many who prophesied 
that the average percentage of quinine in the Java barks 
would become so high (10 to 12 per cent) that one was 
inclined to question the possibility of placing suob quan- 
tities of quinine as tho.'-e barks would yield. 
Since then the imports from Java of Ledgers and 
Hybrids— which two kinds were predicted to be the 
barks of the future— have shown us that these expec- 
tations were greatly exaggerated. 
The following quantities of Ledgers and Hybrids 
have been offered in Amsterdam at the regular 
auctions. 
kilos. p. c. 
1888 at 10 auctions about 1,131,000 averaging 4 02 
1889 „ „ 1,688,400 „ 4T2 
1890 5 „ 1,220,302 „ _ 4‘20 
It is true that some plantations have not stripped as 
much ric h stem and root bark, as they would have done if 
the unit value hnd ranged higher — still the above figures 
show clearly that the fear of overproduction through 
the inerfa-ing richness of the bark.s is unfounded. 
The stock of cinchona is London, according to the 
official accounts has declined from 99,600 packages in 
1883 to 57,181 p.ackages in 1889. 
The stock in Amsterdam in first hands only consists 
of a few parcels withdrawn from the last sales, whilst 
in second hands there are never any supplies of any 
importance. Comparing the stock of cinchona with 
price of quinine, as follows ; — 
1883 
1884 
1885 
1S86 
London bark 
stock (per kilo.) 99,600 
80,500 
61,700 
62,350 
Quinine (florins 
per kilo. ) 135 
75 
57 
24 
1887 
1888 
1889 
London bark stock (per kilo) 59,619 
56,754 
57,181 
Quinine (florins per kilo) 
364 
274 
25J 
it is evident that some powerful factor must have 
operated to produce the constant decline of the price 
of the manufactured product, concurrently with the 
diminution of the supply of the raw material. What is 
this factor ? I am inclined to think that it is found in 
the existence of contracts for cinchona between some 
large plantations in Java and quinine manufr cturers 
direct, in which the price of bark is fixed only upon 
arrival of the parcels in the factories, according to the 
then ruling value of quinine. 
Such contracts may seem profitable to some planters, 
as the producer receives the quinine-value of his barks 
without any expense except the remuneration of a 
specialist (who, in conjunction with the quinine manu- 
facturer, adjusts the percentage and value of the bark 
on arrival), taking into consideration a certain fixed 
figure for the cost of manufacturing. The planters, as 
a body, may be sure, however, that by such a mode 
of operation they are digging their own graves, for 
this reason — such contracts enable the manufacturer 
to sell considerable qiantities of quinine for future 
delivery at low prices, without loss or even without 
risk, because be has the guarantee that however low 
may bethe price at which he sells the quinine, when 
delivery time comes the necessary quantity of bark will 
be at bis disposal at a correspondingly low figure. 
The depreciation in value of quinine is tbu* actually 
borne by the planters, yet it is a fact that sush a 
contract exists between a Guman manufacturer and 
Java planters, and tbst this has enabled him Icr years 
to sell quinine on future delivery with a profit at the 
lowest figures, causing at the same time a general 
depression of the article, to the detriment of the pro- 
ducers. AVhenever this iranufacturer lowers his prices, 
other makers have to follow suit, should tley not wish 
to lose their customers, and they have therefore to make 
