How many elephants actually have 
been killed cannot be known, but by 
the time of my study (1974-76) the 
number was already high. In 1976 
a ground census of carcasses in a sam- 
ple area on, and adjacent to, the flood 
plain found very high recent mortality 
and much evidence of hunting. The 
results corroborated other observa- 
tions and reports on the extent of hunt- 
ing elsewhere in the region. All 
strongly indicated that far more ele- 
phants were being killed than repro- 
duction could replace. 
The elephants are also being af- 
fected by change in the native vege- 
tation of the region. Woodlands, thick- 
ets, regenerating stands, and espe- 
cially mature forests — apparently the 
vegetation types most valuable to ele- 
phants — provide quantity and variety 
of food and also cover. (The scattered 
patches of mature forest are also es- 
sential habitat for other wildlife, in- 
cluding the Tana’s two rare monkey 
species, the Tana mangebey and the 
red colobus.) But aerial photographs 
show that during the period from 1960 
to 1975, forests on much of the lower 
Tana flood plain disappeared at an 
average rate of V /2 to 2Vi percent per 
year. Clearing for farms is thought 
to be the principal cause. Unlike the 
situation in some other parts of Africa, 
elephants in the Tana region did not 
appear to be doing significant damage 
to the overall status of the vegetation. 
Certain flood-plain resources that 
elephants need are relatively scarce, 
particularly safe drinking sites, ma- 
ture forests, and refuges secure from 
disturbance. These are likely to be- 
come scarcer still, as human land use 
expands and intensifies. Access to 
drinking sites may be cut off by new 
farms and expanding villages; forests 
and regenerating woodlands may be 
cleared for farms, selectively cut for 
dugout canoes and building poles, and 
scorched by fires; refuges may be pen- 
etrated by hunters and exposed to gen- 
erally increased human activity. 
More drastic alterations to the Tana 
region’s natural conditions and proc- 
esses may result from major economic 
development activities under way. 
Some analysts think hydroelectric 
power generation dams and water-sup- 
ply reservoirs upstream (some in op- 
eration for several years) may change 
flood patterns and low-water levels. 
If this happens, the present dynamic 
character of the river could be tamed, 
and everything that has evolved with, 
or adapted to, the river and its flood 
plain could be affected — forests and 
grasslands, elephants and monkeys, 
farmers and pastoralists. 
A more immediate impact on ele- 
phants will result from the large ir- 
rigation project being built near Bura, 
in the middle of the region. Elephants 
will lose not only the project area (just 
off the flood plain) but, more impor- 
tant, possibly the flood plain behind 
it, as well as the whole area between 
the river and the planned main canal 
supplying irrigation water from many 
miles upriver. The canal is designed 
to permit crossings by elephants, and 
water holes are being constructed in 
the hope of satisfying the animals out- 
side the project. Whether these efforts 
will succeed is not certain. Consid- 
ering the importance of flood-plain 
vegetation to elephants and the fre- 
quent aridity of the Bura region, a 
reduction in elephant numbers in the 
vicinity seems a likely result of the 
reduction in flood-plain resources. The 
vast increase in human activity ac- 
companying the scheme (it is pro- 
jected to support a population nearly 
equal to the entire region’s present 
population) is likely to have severe 
and even broader repercussions. Fur- 
thermore, some observers fear there 
will be effects on the river from off- 
takes of water for irrigation and from 
saline or chemically polluted dis- 
charges back into it. 
Our understanding of elephants, tra- 
ditional human land use, and other 
aspects of natural ecological systems 
in the Tana region is only sketchy. 
But some basic facts and principles 
are known that can help guide future 
management of natural resources, 
whether the objective is to protect ele- 
phants and forests or to assist farmers 
and pastoralists. The Tana region until 
very recently was little altered by de- 
velopment. Now change is coming, 
and anticipating and controlling its im- 
pact can be aided by understanding 
how natural systems worked in the 
past and seeing just what is at stake. 
For elephants, for other wildlife, and 
for people — for everything that de- 
pends on the present character of the 
flood plain — much is at stake. 
Good seasonal rains have fallen on 
the Tana region most years since my 
field research. But as the inevitable, 
extended dry periods recur, the ele- 
phants that remain must return to the 
river. Again the flood plain’s water 
and vegetation will become paramount 
in their existence. Conflicts with peo- 
ple can be expected to intensify as 
human use of land increases and the 
price of ivory continues to rise. The 
elephant’s prospects are uncertain. □ 
The 1 ,500 percent increase in the 
price of ivory during the past decade 
has led to the massacre of elephants 
throughout Africa. Hunting 
elephants for their ivory has a long 
history in the Tana River region; 
high prices, the use of modern 
weapons, and poaching raids by 
Somali tribesmen have accelerated 
the slaughter. The huge animals 
make easy targets, particularly when 
they are concentrated on the Tana 
River flood plain during the dry 
season. Hunters typically hack the 
tusks out of the elephant’s skull, 
left, leaving the rest of the body for 
scavengers or simply to rot. 
Wolfgang Bayer 
Bob Caputo 
34 
