THE  TROPICAL  AGRICULTURIST. 
307 
Nov.  j,  1895.J 
These  contradictions  notwithstanding,  men  have 
seized  upon  certain  ])lienomena  as  weather  signs 
and  it  is  witli  exposing  these  fallacies  that  the 
President  of  the  Meteorological  Society  in  his 
latest  address — chielly  deals.  The  President  of  the 
Royal  Meteorological  ' Society  candidly  admits 
that  research  shows  “ how  little  we  have  our- 
selves advanced  in  some  matters  since  the  time 
of  Hesiod,  Theophrastus  and  Aratus.”  In  early 
times  men,  then  as  now,  foretold  what  they 
desired,  the  wish  being  father  to  the  prophecy 
and  put  down  for  a universal  law  that  wluch  was 
only  a coincidence  of  totally  independent  events. 
Mr.  Inwards  has  no  regartl  for  St.  Swithin,  at 
lease  as  far  as  the  weather  is  concerned.  Ac- 
cording to  him  the  saint  has  no  more  to  do 
with  the  dryness  or  humidity  of  the  season  than 
has  the  sphinx.  It  is  not  always  pleasant  to  he 
disillusionised  even  in  the  interests  of  truth  and 
before  Mr.  Inwards’  criticisms  many  will  feel 
cherished  ideas  go  by  the  hoai'd.  There  are, 
says  he 
Forty  weather  saints,  among  the  most  prominent  of 
whom  is  undoubtedly  St.  Swithin,  whose  day  is  July 
15,  and  the  superstition  is  that  if  it  should  rain  on 
that  day  it  will  rain  for  forty  days  after This 
date  is  very  near  a well-known  bad  time  in  wet  years, 
as  the  terms,  long  in  use,  of  “ St.  Margaret’s  flood  ” 
and  “Lammas  flood’’  abundantly  testify.  The  fact 
that  some  of  these  heavy  rains  began  on  July  15  has 
been  enough  material  for  the  adage-monger,  and  so 
we  have  another  “ universal  ” law  laid  down,  a law 
which  is,  however,  constantly  broken,  as  every  stu- 
dent of  the  weather  very  well  knows.  The  whole 
thing  is  a fallacy  of  the  most  vulgar  kind,  and  ought 
speedily  to  be  forgotten,  together  with  all  the  adages 
which  make  the  weather  of  any  period  depend  on  that 
of  a distant  day.’’ 
Regarding  the  attempts  whicli  have  been  made 
to  connect  atmospheric  changes  with  the  move- 
Tiients  and  position  of  tlie  heavenly  bodies  Mr. 
Inwards  shows  that  nothing  has  been  proved  to 
show  that  meteoroloMcal  conditions  depend  in 
any  way  upon  such  metors.  In  this  connection 
he  quotes  an  interesting  letter  from  Herschel 
datecl  Feb.  6th,  1814:  — 
“ I am  glad  of  an  opportunity  to  say  that  prognosti- 
cations of  the  weather  are  so  much  above  the  knowledge 
of  astronomers  that  I have  taken  unknown  pains  pub- 
licly  to  contradict  reports  of  predictions  that  have  been 
ascribed  to  me.  You  may  therefore  bo  assured  that 
what  you  have  heard  as  my  opinion  about  the  frost  i's 
without  the  smallest  foundation.’’ 
The  moon,  according  to  Lord  Ryron,  is  respon- 
.silde  for  many  things,  but  Mr.  Inwards  acquits 
her  of  any  complicity  in  affecting  the  weather  : — 
“ Even  the  halo  round  the  moon  has  been  discredited, 
for  Mr.  Lowe  found  that  it  was  as  often  followed  by 
fine  weather  as  by  rain,  and  Messrs.  Marriott  and  Aber- 
cromby  found  that  the  lunar  halo  immediately  preceded 
rain  in  34  cases  out  of  61.’’ 
Comin"  down  to  earth  the  worker  deals  with 
the  fallacies  connected  with  the  • behaviour  of 
plants  and  animals.  He  says 
“Mr.  E.  J.  Lowe,  f.e.s.,  has  endeavoured  to  put  some 
of  the  rules  from  this  source  to  the  test  of  definite  ob- 
servation. He  took  a number  of  well-known  signs 
said  to  indicate  change  and  carefully  noted  what  hap- 
pened after  each  sign,  and  although  he  does  not  say  that 
all  indications  from  animals,  birds  and  plants  are  use- 
less, yet  certainly  those  he  did  investigate  seemed 
utterly  to  break  down.  He  took  the  well-known  signs 
of  bats  flying  about  in  the  evenings  many  toads  ajo- 
pearing  at  sunset,  many  snails  about,  fish  rising  much 
in  lake,  bees  busy,  many  locusts,  cattle  restless,  land- 
rails clamorous,  flies  and  gnats  troublesome,  many  in- 
sects, crows  congregating  and  clamorous,  spider-webs 
thickly  woven  on  the  grass,  spiders  hanging  on  their 
webs  in  the  evening,  and  ducks  and  geese  msuiing  more 
than  usual  noise.  Mr.  Lowe  found  that  in  361  obser- 
vations of  the  above  signs,  they  were  followed  213 
^ioies  by  fine,  and  only  148  times  oy  weather  | BO 
that  even  after  the  prognostications  for  rain,  there  was 
a greater  preponderance  of  fine  Weather-  He  called 
a day  fine  when  no  rain  was  measureable  in  the  rain 
gauge.  Mr.  Lowe  says  that  even  swallows  flying  low 
cannot  be  depended  on,  as,  especially  at  the  close  of 
summer  and  autumn,  they  almost  invariably  skim  the 
surface  of  the  ground,  and  Mr.  Charles  Waterton,  the 
naturalist,  decided,  after  careful  observation,  that  the 
unusual  clamour  of  rooks  forms  no  trustworthy  sign 
of  rain.  These  must,  therefore,  swell  the  list  of  falla* 
cies,  although  there  are  many  other  rules  which  have 
not  been  so  carefully  examined,  but  which  may  still 
be  true.  My  own  impression  is  that  although  it  is 
painful  to  dismiss  the  animals  from  their  ancient  posi- 
tion as  weather  prophets,  we  may  consider  them  as 
indicating  what  they  feel,  rather  than  as  predicting 
what  is  to  come,  and  that  their  actions  before  rain 
simply  rise  from  the  dampness,  darkness  or  chilliness 
preceding  wet  weather,  and  which  render  these  crea- 
tures uneasy,  but  not  more  so  than  they  affect  man 
himself. 
As  to  cows  scratching  their  ears,  and  goats  utter- 
ing cries,  and  many  other  signs  of  bad  weather, 
they  are  at  least  very  doubtful ; whilst  the  adage  about 
the  pig  which  credits  him  with  seeing  the  wind,  carries 
with  it  its  own  condemnation.  The  medicinal  leech 
is  still  left  on  the  list  of  weather  prophets,  though  he 
has  no  doubt  had  his  powers  exaggerated. 
Plants  have  also  their  advocates  as  weather  indica- 
tors ; and  there  is  no  doubt  that  in  most  cases  they 
act  in  sympathy  with  changes  in  the  dampness,  gloomi- 
ness, or  chilliness  of  the  air,  and  as  these  conditions 
generally  precede  rain,  one  cannot  term  the  indications 
altogether  fallacious.  The  pimpernel  and  the  mari- 
gold close  their  petals  before  rain,  because  the  air  is 
getting  damper,  while  the  poplar  and  maple  show  the 
under  surface  of  their  leaves  for  a similar  reason. 
Indeed,  an  artificial  leaf  of  paper  may  be  made  to 
do  the  same  thing,  if  constructed  on  the  same  principle 
as  the  natural  one — a hard  thin  paper  to  represent  the 
upper  side  of  the  leaf,  and  a thicker  unsized  paper  for 
the  lower  side ; these  will,  if  stuck  together,  curl  up  or 
bend  down  in  sympathy  with  the  hygroscopic  condition 
of  the  air.  A slip  of  ordinary  photographic  paper  will 
do  the  same,  and  will  curl  up  at  once  when  placed  on 
the  hand. 
In  1892  attention  was  directed  to  a plant,  the  Aims 
precatorius,  a beautiful  shrub  of  the  mimosa  kind,* 
which  has  the  property  of  being  sensitive  in  a high  de- 
gree, 80  that  its  pinnate  leaflets  go  through  many  cu- 
rious movements,  and  it  was  claimed  that  these  form  a 
guide  of  unerring  certainty  to  foreshow  the  coming 
weather.  Even  earthquakes  were  said  to  be  predicted 
by  this  wonderful  plant.  If  it  closed  its  leaflets  up- 
ward, after  the  manner  of  a butterfly  about  to  settle, 
fair  weather  was  shown ; when  the  leaflets  remained 
flat,  changeable  and  gloomy  weather  was  indicated) 
while  thunder  at  various  distances  was  to  be  foretold 
by  the  curling  of  the  leaflets,  and  the  nearer  the 
thunder  the  greater  the  curl,  until  when  the  points 
of  the  leaflets  crossed,  the  thunderstorm  was  indicated 
as  being  overhead.  Changes  of  wind,  hurricanes,  and 
other  phenomena  were  to  be  shown  by  the  various  cu- 
rious and  beautiful  movements  of  the  leaflets  and 
stalks.  These  movements  undoubtedlv  took  place,  but 
when  the  plant  was  submitted  to  tlie  unprejudiced 
observation  of  Dr.  F.  W.  Oliver  and  Mr.  F.  E.  Weiss,  at 
Kew  Gardens,  those  gentlemen  failed  to  find  any  con- 
nection between  these  movements  and  the  weather,  and 
Dr.  Oliver  made  a report  on  the  matter,  which  hits  the 
heart  of  the  whole  subject  of  plant  movements,  by  as- 
cribing them  for  the  most  part  to  the  agency  of  light 
and  moisture.  Mr.  Scott,  of  the  kletcorological  Office, 
gave  the  finishing  stroke  to  the  theory  by  proving  that 
the  movements  had  no  connection  with  either  cyclones 
or  with  earthquakes,  so  that  the  sensitive  plant  may 
be  considered  as  out  of  the  list  of  weather  guides, 
in  spite  of  having  been  made  the  subject  of  an  Eng- 
lish patent.” 
The  discharge  of  cannon  as  a means  of  produc- 
ing rain  is  also  discredited  and  to  various  other 
ideas,  generally  accepted,  Mr.  Inwards  applies 
* Very  common  in  Colombo  gardens,  with  its  pretty 
scarlet  and  black  seeds.— Eh,  T-4' 
