Nov.  2,  1896,] 
THE  TROPICAL 
public  favour,  Scarcely  two  factories  pursued  the 
same  method  of  manufacture,  in  consequence  of 
which  there  was  so  little  uniformity  that  the  dealers 
and  brokers  were  in  despair,  and  it  was  not  until 
1866  that  Indians  really  began  to  attract  attention 
in  Mincing  Lane,  but  for  the  subsequent  three  years 
dealers  purchased  Indiana  merely  for  blending  with 
the  lower  class  of  Chinas.  From  1869  a demand  gradu- 
ally arose  for  tbe  unadulterated  article,  from  which 
time  home  consumption  has  steadily  increased ; and, 
though  there  is  a considerable  section  of  the  public  who 
still  cling  to  the  higher  class  of  Chinas,  such  as  that 
vended  by  Twiniugs,  Newman  and  other  well  know'n 
houses,  even  they  are  gradually  veering  round  in 
favour  of  Indians.  We  may  take  it  for  granted  there- 
fore that  within  the  next  two  years  the  demand  for 
Great  Britain  alone,  reckoning  on  the  last  census, 
will  amount  to  185  million  pounds.  Next  in  order  of 
tea-drinking  nations  comes  Russia,  but  as  the  upper 
and  middle  classes  are  siipplied  with  the  best  Caravan 
tea  from  China,  it  would  not  bo  safe  to  calculate 
upon  eventually  securing  more  than  one  third 
of  the  population  as  our  customers,  which  would 
give  a consumption  at  51b.  per  head  of  155  million 
pounds  and  taldng  the  remaining  population  of 
Europe  at  251  millions,  reckoning  at  the  rate  of 
21b.  per  bead,  we  arrive  at  a demand  of  812 
million  pounds.  We  place  the  consumption  of 
Continental  nations  at  21b.,  as  the  majority  are 
coSee  and  cocoa  drinkers.  What  can  be  done  hei'c 
after  in  the  way  of  conversion  must  remain  an  open 
question,  at  least  for  the  present;  but  we  have 
not  yet  secured  even  the  21b.  per  head  be  it 
remembered.  Turning  to  the  American  Continent, 
we  have  to  deal  with  a population  of  133  millions, 
but  at  present  China  holds  the  monopoly  of  sup- 
plying the  states  on  the  Pacific  Sea-board,  leav- 
ing us  about  two-thirds  in  the  Canadas  and  Ata- 
lantic  States,  which  ere  the  end  of  the  century  is 
reached  (if  we  are  to  jiidge  by  Mr.  Blechynd'en), 
should  create  a demand  for  an  additional  220 
million  pounds.  Australasia  with  its  4 millions  may 
be  taken  as  an  assured  market  at  the  extreme  con- 
sumption of- that  of  the  United  Kiegdon,  so  that  20 
millions  will  be  needed  for  those  colonies  in  the 
near  future,  bringing  the  total  demand,  say,  within 
the  next  four  years  up  to  1,082  million  pounds,  the 
actual  outturn  last  season  being  but  135  million 
pounds.  With  regard  to  the  population  of  Asia, 
estimated,  to  number  854  millions,  we  must  first  deduct 
that  of  China  400  millions  as  also  Siam,  Cambodia  and 
the  Malayan  Peninsula,  for  already  tea  cultivation 
is  attracting  attention  in  these  countries,  and,  with 
an  almost  unlimited  supply  of  the  very  best  seed 
procurable  from  the  Shan  States  and  Northern  Ton- 
quin  between  the  parallel  of  22°  and  30^,  these 
will  not  only  supply  their  own  requirements,  but 
eventually  enter  into  rivalry  with  us.  This  will 
leave  us  but  Persia,  Central  Asia  and  Asiatic  Turkey 
to  deal  with,  which  may  be  taken  at  one  pound  per 
head,  or  100  million  pounds,  which  is  about  the 
estimated  outturn  from  Ceylon,  1896-97,  and  tliere- 
fore  need  not  enter  into  our  calculations.  Can  these 
possible  markets  be  secured  ? Wc  believe  that  to  the 
extent  we  have  put  down  they  can  be,  but  not  with- 
out the  most  enei'gelic  and  prompt  measures,  and 
money  must  be  freely,  though  not  necessarily 
extravagantly,  expended  in  establishing  agencies 
in  every  centre  olleriug  prospects  of  success.  I’ro- 
suming  that  the  securing  of  this  supply  can  be 
accomplished  within  the  next  four  years  we  have 
now  to  consider  what  means  we  have  for  meeting 
the  demand.  The  Tea  Association  do  not  publish 
their  revised  estimate  until  the  end  of  August, 
and  as  much  depends  upon  the  vagaries  of'  the 
remainder  of  the  season  these  estimates  are  not 
reliable  there  being  a discrepancy  last  year  of  3 
million  pounds  in  the  August  estimate  and  5 mil- 
lions between  that  made  in  the  spring  and  that  re- 
alised. We  shall  be  on  the  safe  side,  therefore,  if  we 
take  the  outturn  of  Indians  this  season  at  I-IO  mil- 
lions and  Ceylons  at  120,  in  all  260  million  pounds, 
barely  enough  to  meet  requirements,  if  the  Ameri- 
can and  Colonial  demand  is  sustained  at  the  rate 
AGRICULTURIST. 
of  the  past  six  months.  From  all  we  have  been 
able  to  glean  the  extensions  this  year  in  both 
producing  countries  amounts  to  .30,000  acres  w'hich  four 
years  hence  may  bring  the  outturn  up  to  about  200  mil- 
lion pounds  against  a possible  requirement  of  1,082  mil- 
lion pounds  as  mentioned  above.  We  abstain  from  en- 
tering into  such  side  issues  as  the  coolie  problem,  box- 
supply  freights  etc.,  which  are  purely  matters  for  the 
planters’  and  agents  consideration ; but  have  en- 
deavoured to  show  what  markets  exist  or  may  ^be 
created,  and  what  the  prospects  are  of  meeting  'an 
estimated  demand,  taking  our  figures  from  official 
statistics,  and  merely  confining  our  remarks  to  the 
next  four  years,  and  it  seems  to  us  that  the  dread 
of  over  production  of  Indian  teas  is  a nightmare 
afflicting  timid  investors  haunted  by  extreme  pessi- 
mist forebodings.  Sales  up  to  date  have  been  pro- 
mising enough  to  indicate  a successful  season,  dispite 
the  grumbling  indulged  in  at  the  abnormal  weather 
experienced  during  the  spring,  and  it  would  be  a 
wise  policy  to  devote  a liberal  portion  of  the  forth- 
coming dividends  to  exploiting  the  markets  we  have 
glanced  at.  A cai'eful  consideration  of  the  figures  we 
adduce  will,  we  think,  convince  most  people  that,  so 
far  from  there  being  danger  of  over-production,  the 
probabilities  lie  in  the  opposite  direction,  but 
action,  and  united  action,  must  be  taken  at  once  so 
as  to  secure  outlets,  for  it  will  require  fully  four 
years  to  educate  Continental  nations.  The  present 
growing  demand  has,  however,  to  be  carefully 
watched,  for  there  is  just  the  possibility  that  our  teas 
a 10  being  taken,  as  other  novelties,  merely  to  satisfy 
curiosity,  though  our  own  opinion  is  that  the 
patronage  is  genuine  and  will  become  permanent. 
Planters  and  investors  may  regard  with  equanimity 
the  attempts  of  rival  countries  for  labour  is  chead 
enough  here  to  defy  competition,  except,  perhaps, 
in  S.E  Asia  and  Java,  but  even  there  the  price 
of  labour  is  higher  than  with  us.  At  the  same  time 
resort  should  be  had  to  every  possible  contrivance  to- 
wards minimising  hand  work,  even  in  the  minutest 
details  ; and  a good  substantial  prize  might  be  offered 
for  a picking  machine,  for  with  this  problem  solved  the 
cost  of  production  could  be  brought  down  to  some  two 
annas.  Our  remai-ks  have  been  suggested  by  the  ad- 
verse criticism  of  the  tiatuvday  Ilcviem  upon  the  laun- 
ching of  the  Consolidated  Tea  and  Lands  Company, 
Limited  ; and,  though,  considering  the  scheme  has  been 
brought  out  in  London,  the  prospectus  might  have  en- 
tered more  into  details  of  the  actual  planting  prospects, 
to  those  better  acquainted  with  agricultural  pursuits 
as  pursued  in  India  than  our  London  contemporary  or 
the  Madras  Mail,  which  endorses  the  views  of  the 
home  paper,  the  enterprise  promises  fair  enough,  while 
the  price  asked  for  the  property  appears  by  no  means 
extravagant.  It  is  amusing  to  note  that  the  Mail 
heads  his  article  “ A Mammoth  Planting  Concern.” 
That  is  commercial  India  all  over  and  men  here  can- 
not apparently  understand  dealing  in  other  than  petty 
investments  with  capital  ranging  about  a couple  of 
lakhs  of  rupees.  We  are  at  issue  with  the  3Iail  on 
the  matter  of  large  versus  small  companies,  for  it  is 
now  beyond  question  that  all  the  vexation  and  ob- 
struction thrown  in  the  w ly  of  developing  our  resources 
emanates  from  ^Vostnl:nstor  ; hence,  big  companies 
could  exercise  I’arliameiitary  pressure  on  the  India 
Office,  while  the  Mannikins  would  be  snubbed. — Indian 
Planters’  Ga^icltc,  Sept.  5. 

PLANTING  NOTES  FROM  EAST 
HAPUTALE. 
Sept,  16. 
Ill  this  district  of  late  we  have  e.\ perieiiced 
rougli  stormy  iveatlier,  the  wind  veering  all  round 
the  compass.  And  we  have  had  only  two  or 
three  fugitive  showers  since  I last  wrote  you, 
one  giving  us  a little  over  one  inch  of  rain.  We 
have  still  hot  dry  weather  here  and  tlicre  is  not 
much  tea  making  going  on,  on  this  .side  of  Ilajnltale 
just  now.  1 have  never  seen  tlie  brooks  lower 
than  they  now  are,  and  the  patanas  are 
again  becoming  brown  and  burnt  up  with 
