THE  TROPICAL 
AGRICULTURIST. 
459 
Jan.  I,  1897  ] 
THE  COFFEE  SITUATION. 
The  crop  of  1896-97  ie  a demonstratiou  of  the  extent 
to  which  a period  of  high  prices  has  stimulated  pro- 
duction. The  area  devoted  to  coffee  has  been  rapidly 
extended  in  Brazil,  in  Central  America,  United 
States  of  Columbia,  Venezuela  and  Mexico.  Coffee- 
growing is  a profitable  industry  when  coffee  sells  in 
New  York  at  prices  considerably  below  a basis  of  100 
cents  for  No.  7 Eio.  At  the  prices  of  the  past  five 
years  planters  have  been  receiving  enormous  profits. 
It  is  apparent  that  we  have  entered  a period  of  low 
cost.  A decline  has  taken  place  of  over  5 cents  per 
pound  in  the  cost  of  Brazil  sorts,  and  the  question  is 
whether  this  fall  in  the  price  has  fully  discounted  a 
supply  largely  in  excess  of  the  world’s  requ’rements. 
The  answer  will  be  found  in  the  estimated  outturn  of 
the  1897-98  crop.  If  that  is  up  to  or  above  the  average 
supply,  then  there  is  a chance  for  lower  prices.  If  the 
next  crop  is  to  be  light  in  Brazil,  it  would  seem  as  if 
the  present  basis  was  near  bottom. 
Messrs.  W.  H.  Crossmau  & Brother  are  very  close 
students  of  the  coffee  markets  of  the  world,  and  show 
their  faith  by  their  works,  and  generally  take  the 
public  into  their  confidence  by  issuing  a circular 
giving  their  views.  This  they  have  again  done 
under  date  of  October  i23,  estimating  an  enor- 
mous crop  in  Brazil  for  1896-97,  viz.,  a total 
export  of  not  less  than  8,000,000  bags.  This  is  a 
total  far  beyond  the  yearly  average  for  seven 
years,  ending  June  30,  1896,  of  5,657,236  bags 
(332,781  tons).  In  1891-92  Brazil  exported  7,267,000 
bags,  and  it  is  certainly  not  unreasonable  to  esti- 
mate Biat  the  exports  from  the  largest  yield  on 
i-ecord  shoul  i exceed  the  shipments  of  1891-92  to 
the  extent  of  733,000  bags.  Brazil  has  furnished 
51  per  cent,  of  the  world’s  supply.  On  that  basis 
the  crops  of  1896-97  will  aggregate  11,814,800  bags. 
Crois.nan  & Co.  estimate  the  total  crops  a".  14,000,000 
bags,  based  on  a minimum  Brazil  yield  of 
8,000.000  and  6,000,000  for  other  countries,  or  about 
500,000  bags  above  the  average  crops  of  the  past 
three  years.  tt  j 
The  total  deliveries  in  Europe  and  the  United 
States  for  five  crop  years  ending  June  30,  1896, 
were  54,677,976  bags,  or  a yearly  average  of  10,935, 
595  bags.  , 
Hard  times  curtail  the  use  of  coffee,  especially 
if  prices  rule  high.  There  has  been  11 1 increase 
in  the  deliveries  of  coffee  worthy  of  note  since  the 
advent  of  high  prices,  as  the  following  table  of 
deliveries  in  Europe  and  the  United  States  shows: 
Year. 
Bags. 
1895-96  . . 
11,142,813 
1894-95  . . 
11,212,851 
1893-94  . . 
10,571,533 
1892-93  . . 
10,916,228 
1891-92  . . 
10,804,551 
Total  five  years  . . 54,677,976 
Yearly  average  (643,270  tons).  . . 10,935,595 
The  above  shows  the  stexdy  nature  of  the  world’s 
requirements,  which  is  subject  to  other  than  crop 
influences.  Hard  times  and  high  cost  cut  down  the 
demand.  With  a return  t)  prosperity,  the  United 
States  should  increase  its  consumption  of  coffee  at 
least  400,0’ 0 bags.  Last  year  the  deliveries  fell  below 
1894-95  here  and  m Europe,  but  to  slight  extent. 
This  shows  the  fairness  of  Crossman  & Co.’s  esti- 
mate of  requirements,  viz.,  11,500,000  bags,  to  meet 
which  there  is  an  estimated  supply  of  14,000,000 
bags.  Has  a 5 cent  drop  discounted  this  big  yield? 
Crossman  & Co.  claim  not,  and  - evidently  look  for- 
ward to  coffee  on  a basis  of  7 cents  for  No.  7 Rio 
in  New  York,  based  on  former  experience  with  a 
visible  supply  of  5,000,000  bags.  The  outlook  for  the 
1897-98  crop  is  favorable  for  a full  average  yield. 
If  it  should  duplicate  the  supply  of  1896-97,  we 
cannot  see  how  it  can  fail  to  foster  and  maintain 
an  era  of  cheap  coffee.  There  is  certainly  no  basis 
in  sight  upon  which  to  carry  forward  a bull  cam- 
paign, We  have  arrived  at  a time  when  it  is  fairly 
safe  to  carry  liberal  stocks,  and  the  lower  prices  go 
the  safer  the  operation  of  buying  freely.  Based  on 
the  actual  movement  of  coffee,  the  Crossman  & Co. 
circular  is  a conservative  presentation  of  its  situa- 
tion.— American  Grocer,  Oct.  28. 
PL.ANTING  AND  PRODUCE, 
(From  H.  A-  6'.  Mail,  No.  20.) 
Russia  and  Tea  Cultivation. — In  an  address 
recently  delivered  by  M.  Alexis  Yermoloff,  who  since 
1893  has  been  Minister  of  Agriculture  and  State 
Domiins  in  Russia,  before  the  Societe  Nationals 
d’Agriculture,  in  Paris,  reference  was  made  to  tea 
cultivation.  In  his  address  M.  Yermoloff  said  that 
in  any  attempt  to  obtain  a complete  view  of  the 
practical  agriculture  of  the  Russian  Empire  it  is 
necessai’y  to  remember  that  the  country  extends 
from  the  Polar  regioni  of  the  nirth  to  the  semi- 
tropical  regions  of  the  south,  from  the  Baltic  Sea  in 
the  west  to  the  Pacific  Ocean  in  the  east;  that 
Germany  and  China  alike  approach  its  borders. 
Throughout  this  vast  area  agriculture  forms  the 
chief  occupation  of  the  people  and  is  the  main 
source  of  their  wealth.  Prom  the  lichen  (Iceland 
moss)  which  serves  to  nourish  the  reindeer  in 
Lapland  to  the  olives  and  bays  and  tea-shrubs  of 
the  Caucasus,  all  species  of  plants,  cultivated  or 
wild,  of  the  temperate  region  of  the  northern  hemis- 
phere have  their  representatives  in  Russia.  But  it 
is  the  cultivation  of  cereals  that  forms  the  basis 
of  Russian  agriculture.  With  regard  to  the  cultiva- 
tion  of  tea  in  the  Caucisus  this  work  has  been 
undertaken  not  >uly  '>u  the  Imperial  dom.ains,  but 
by  private  growers,  who  h ive  studied  the  industry 
in  China,  India  and  Ceylon.  Russia  claims  to  be 
the  largest  tea-drinking  country  in  the  world,  and 
till  recently  has  bean  entirely  dependent  upon 
China  for  supplies 
Still  on  the  Down  Gk.ade. — The  Chinese  have 
not  now  much  tea  trade  to  boast  of  e.xoept  with 
Russia,  but  up  to  a year  or  two  ago  there  was 
something  doing  as  regards  the  export  of  scented 
teas.  Now,  however,  this  trade  is  ou  the  down 
grade,  as  is  evidenced  by  a recent  consular  report 
from  Canton.  The  export  of  scented  tea  to  Great 
Britain  during  the  season  1895-96  was  5,750,000  lb, 
against  5,500,000  lb.  the  previous  year,  and  6,000,000  lb. 
for  1893-94.  The  quality  of  the  early  shipments  was 
fully  up  to  the  average,  though  not  so  good  as  that 
of  the  previous  year,  and  it  deteriorated  towards 
the  end.  The  resqlt  was  again  disastrous  to  ship- 
pers, in  spite  of  the  fact  that  teas  were  laid  down 
cheaper  than  ever  known  before.  The  unprecedentedly 
low  prices  ruling  in  London  are  attributed  to 
shipments  being  more  than  the  trade  required 
and  to  the  absence  of  competition  consequent 
on  the  fact  that,  whereas  these  teas — scented 
capers — were  formerly  taken  by  a number  of  retail- 
ers in  various  parts  of  the  country,  they  are  now 
only  used  by  a few  large  blenders,  preference  being 
given  to  low  price  Indian  and  Ceylon  teas.  This 
latter  reason  also  accounts  for  the  deliveries  falling 
short  of  those  of  1893-94.  ’The  demand  for  scented 
capers  has  steadily  declined  for  several  years  past, 
aud  it  is  not  unreasonable  to  suppose  that  at  no 
very  distant  date  it  will  become  altogether  extinct, 
Great  Britain  being  the  only  country  where  such 
teas  are  used.  It  is  thought  by  some  that,  but  for 
the  low  prices,  there  would  be  no  demand  at  all. 
Others,  however,  do  not  share  this  opinion.  Congou, 
a peculiar  kind  of  black  tea  known  as  Hoyune  Con- 
gou, was  several  years  back  shipped  in  considerable 
quantities.  It  is  now  hardly  worthy  of  notice,  the 
export  barely  touching  200,0001b.  Kooloo,  a high-class 
tea  for  Chinese  consumption  in  Australia,  and  low- 
priced  teas  of  similar  kind  for  the  River  Plate,  con- 
tinue to  be  taken  to  a moderate  extent,  but  do  not 
hold  a prominent  place  in  the  tea  trade  as  carried 
on  by  foreigners.  The  trade  in  long  leaf  scented 
orange  pekoes  is  now  reduced  to  practically  dU,  tb^ 
shipments  being  most  insigniflcaat. 
